Member Info for NAV_Mike

Well the tinfoil hat wearer in me says Taconic have got what they wanted.....

Last week the shares were showing distinct signs of a possible upside breakout.....flirting with 270 and the chart even dared to show a mini-uptrend

Being shorters, that couldnt be allowed so that, plus possibly disappointing results was a reason to short a few million shares at the problem

Yeah probably bs I know, but they are short now some 21m odd shares so something has stirred them into action. Either that or they have a complex hedging strategy going on

Not sure I understand your HBR rationale, but thank you for at least taking the time to answer

Madm0nk

Have you sold all your shares in HBR? Only asking as you obviously have no reason to hold any

Flipping eck....Taconic are on a mission it seems. Thats around 5.2m shares added to their short position since beginning of August

I wonder where they are getting the shares from to cover? They wouldnt be doing this on a whim

Closing auction price of 251.8 - quite a large premium to the closing offer of 250.5

Largish sizr too...1.647m shares

The big O trade immediately after the auction (which we saw all last week) also conspicuous by its absence

We will we have to see if Taconic continue their one company assault on the share price :)

RoyalDoulton

The problem I have with the buybacks is whilst they do undoubtedly improve yield and EPS, we are relying on the market returning to valuing HBR in terms of PER and such like.

The problem is, we have already seen last time that the yield is easily squashed by a capital loss and the share is such a shorters/traders plaything that they almost place the share price where they want

The awful EPL is i think scaring off sufficient buyers to build a strong uptrend, and the sudden increas in the Taconic short concerns me. They have added around 3.8m shares to their short since 01.08.23. Why?

Youre welcome mate

Excuse my slightly downbeat tone....fed up of HBR outperforming to the downside even when Brent has barely dropped

Have a good weekend :)

Edit.....would love to know what all these large O trades immediately after the closing auction are about. Buy or Sell? Someone dumping, or price forced down to fill an order?

For what its worth, heres the state of play after passing the $150m mark today

Shares repurchased = 48,198,118

Averag VWAP = £2.479

Estimated spend to date = $150.4m

Theoretic gain based on closing bid of £2.541 = £2.99m

Projected closing shares in issue now 772.4m

Estimated trading days to buyback completion = 33

Been out all day so didnt keep up with the 'action'

Heard the FTSE was having a nightmare but its getting depressing seeing my predictions play out......ie supress any price rise, then thump the price lower at the first opportunity

We have dropped from 269 to 254 in 2 days when all Brent has done is drop about 75 cents....jeez

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, yet another large O trade immediately after the closing auction. Even bigger today at 1.3m shares

Will do a buyback update later as we probably passed 75% today, but im getting to the stage where Im thinking whats the point. HBR feels like its as bent as nine bob note

Grrrr Indeed!

Thats nearly 3 million shares added to the Taconic short position since 01.08.23!

No activity since March, now they are suddenly going for it. What gives?

I honestly dont think HBR is an oil company share any more

Its a shorters plaything and government cash cow. Back to unchanged on the week - how dare we have a good day yesterday

Edit - just seen....third day on trot, large O trade immediate following the closing auction

LOL Mission accomplished.....price rise supressed, now showing marginally red

Oh well yesterday was very good, lets hope they dont chip away too much of that

If this is a confirmed break of 260, Im seeing 290-295 as next target on my weekly bar chart

Similarly if Brent can consolidate above $86, Im seeing $98 as the next big stop off point

The thing is, there are company and sector factors that can blow charts out of the water in HBR's case - namely saudis, yanks and our dear friends the shorters with their algos

All the same fingers crossed....we seem to have a decent uptrend from the lows around 218

Brent at $87.30 and FTSE futures indicating +45

Lets see if our automated friends try very hard to stop us rising today !

Have been running a spreadsheet since day 1 and will give figures on Friday as we hit the 75% complete mark ($150m)

Reasonable estimate given we are spending $1.5m a day, is 35 or 36 trading days left to completion

Kokomo

Yes we have had a couple of instances where the reduction in shares in issue has caused shorting funds to briefly go above the 0.5% disclosure level (Voleon Vapital and AQR Capital).

Almost immediately they bought back just enough to take them back down again....funny that eh?

The Taconic increased are too big for that to be the case

Well their short is equivalent to around 17m shares so they oviously arent doing it for the giggles.

Love them to get caught out, but shorting funds rarely seem to do these days

Fingers xxd NewKOTB however the yanks have pushed the Brent price down in last 90 mins

Perhaps it got a bit too exhuberant at the giddy heights of $87.40 lol

Perhaps Taconic reallllly dont the price breaking too far above 260?

Yep....Taconic really seem to be increasing quickly. Thats another approc 1.1m shares added to their filthy shorting stash since 01.08