Member Info for NAV_Mike

Yep....Taconic really seem to be increasing quickly. Thats another approc 1.1m shares added to their filthy shorting stash since 01.08

Thats two consecutive days where there has been a very large O trade immediately after the UT closing auction

Share price was clearly held in place for three periods today....im guessing it was to allow the accumulation of shares to fill that large order

Give it time....wont be long before they are using rising Brent and gas as an excuse for poor inflation numbers lol

Also....we are only up 4.6p because of those made five minutes at close yesterday

In reality we are up less than 2p....im beginning to smell a rat

Well on a +50 day in the markets and Brent knocking on the door of $87, we have been utterly held in place - first at 259, now at 260

It seems the current mentality is that if Brent rises, its just more tax to pay (and helps the useless govt argue against reducing the EPL). Funny how when Brent has bad days, we are very capable of dropping like a stone.

Im guessing here NSS22 but our 'normal' algos are not usually so aggressive and my gut feel is that it could be linked to that 641k O trade that appeared after the closing UT trade.

Truth be told, god knowsm but really disappointing having seen Brent recover to $85+ and the share price get back to nearly unchanged. I Literally went to make a cup of coffee, came back and there had been a surge of trades

Man they really attacked the bid in the last 3 mins of trading.....3p off the bid with a flood of AT trades

Well its another drop the price on miniscule volume day (thanks I would think to markets and Brent dropping on bad chinese data).

Price down 4.3p on really low volume of only 240k by 11am.

Currently 260+ is proving a hard nut to crack

Low volume day which suits the algos fine as they nudge us lower.

Brent coming off a bit sets the tone, but as I said Friday $86ish is quite a significant resistance level

Not quite.....should hit the 75% mark Friday. At approx $144.5m by close today

Next week should see us pass the 75% complete mark so will give numbers at the time.

By my reckoning we have around 37 trading days to go

Wow look at oil go....now up to $86.50!

I have this price area as MAJOR overhead resistance on my weekly chart stretching from Nov22 to April23

Wouldnt be surprised to see a consolidation or pull back for a while, but if the price breaks this level im really seeing the $98 area as a realistic target (July22 to Oct22 resistance)

Interesting times!

Well aside from any confirmed M&A news, weve had all the rest already, so I doubt that will appease the sell on news brigade if they are determined

A highly positive future outlook would certainly help rather than downbeat comments on the EPL....as tbh I dont think the govt will change course

Xpo45

I think I agree re the results - we could well see the 'sell on news' brigade show their faces again. Ive little doubt that the second half of the year will see greatly improved oil market fundamentals, however the first half may well prove a bit of a wet blanket. Brent prices werent great and the oil majors have reported big drops in profits

I guess it will depend if our Linda can put a positive spin on results this time. Wiping out all the profits last time with the enormous tax provision might have helped re the EPL discussion but it did little to generate positive headlines and improve investor sentiment

Assuming the share is to go ex-dividend around the 9th Sept, I wonder what is the correct tactic to employ? Hold and collect the divi, or sell just before it goes xd

Last time it went xd around 289p if memory serves and the price was adjusted 9.6p lower. Trouble is, it carried on dropping lol.

A 9.6p divi doesnt compensate you for 50-60p capital loss

Oil market wasnt tightening back then, but the cynic in me thinks our shorting friends could use a drop to increase their positions.

Whats the view guys?

Xpo45

Maybe they were just protecting their existing position and were stopping the share price as it broke over 260

Ultimately they have added around 795k to their short since March....with volumes usually low its unfortunately easy for them to put a lid on prices I would think

Sup

Aye I agree, even though I despise shorting hedge funds :(

Oh well, at least we probably know one operator of those damn algos....I did mention previously that someone was managing to surpress the share price on days that should have been good but werent

Gotta say, when I looked on Short Tracker the increase looked genuine to me. Normally when there is position change due to less shares in issue the change is 0.01% or so - this one is 0.1% or approx 795k shares

Its perfectly feasible that Im wrong as Taconic last declared their % back in March, however my gut feel is they didnt like HBR rising over 250 and started selling/shorting

well biden is making an utter ****-up of us energy security. drained the spr dramatically and supposedly will only refill it when wti is in the $67-72 range

*so guess which way the us is likely to exert price pressure

only today he has backed out of a commitment to purchase 6m barrels for the reserve. cuddly uncle joe he aint

All makes perfecr sense (if you are high on weed or summat)

Biggest inventory draw on recent record, and yet its all about the strength of "king dollar". A currency that is strong on a day where the country's credit standing is downgraded

Yep...perfect sense....and an interest rate rise to come tomorrow (allegedly)