Member Info for NAV_Mike

well biden is making an utter ****-up of us energy security. drained the spr dramatically and supposedly will only refill it when wti is in the $67-72 range

*so guess which way the us is likely to exert price pressure

only today he has backed out of a commitment to purchase 6m barrels for the reserve. cuddly uncle joe he aint

All makes perfecr sense (if you are high on weed or summat)

Biggest inventory draw on recent record, and yet its all about the strength of "king dollar". A currency that is strong on a day where the country's credit standing is downgraded

Yep...perfect sense....and an interest rate rise to come tomorrow (allegedly)

With respect, Brent ticking down a little is almost academic today with the market going into headless chicken mode. All over a Fitch downgrade of ths US

Yes I know BP has hardly moved but this is a perfect for the shorting algos to wipe out recent gains

I think 700m by year end might be a little optimistic unless they raise the $200m overall size. Either that or we would have to suffer another six months of a crappy share price.

Must admit todays price action has taken me by surprise a bit - no reason for it really. The tin foil hat wearer in me thinks HBR are perfectly happy for the price to move lower whilst there is a buyback. They certainly cant be accused of pumping the price up with constant newsflow lol.

In case my buyback update got buried under the absolute bilge posted by our resident loons yesterday evening Im reposting to make ir visible again

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Buyback Update27 Jul 2023 19:02

As expected, the buyback passed the 2/3 complete stage today. Stats to date as follows:

Shares repurchased : 43121658

Average VWAP : £2.4665

Cost to date : £106.36m / $133.64m

At the closing bid price of £2.548 the exercise to date is in the black to the tune of £3.52m

My estimate of closing shares in issue is now half a million higher at 772m. Increase caused by having to buyback at higher prices and rising £/S

Hope thats of interest to some people

As expected, the buyback passed the 2/3 complete stage today. Stats to date as follows:

Shares repurchased : 43121658

Average VWAP : £2.4665

Cost to date : £106.36m / $133.64m

At the closing bid price of £2.548 the exercise to date is in the black to the tune of £3.52m

My estimate of closing shares in issue is now half a million higher at 772m. Increase caused by having to buyback at higher prices and rising £/S

Hope thats of interest to some people

If this dopey government were genuinely serious about it being a windfall tax, they would only tax the excess over floor price at 75% not the whole damn lot. That way it would be a marginal rate tax in the same way as Income Tax. They could even increase it to 80% if they wanted to spin some headlines about being tough on oil companies

Can you imagine the taxpayer revolt if the minute your income went over the higher rate theshold your entire taxable income was taxed at 40%, not at 20%/40%??

But no....they are so desperate for the tax revenue gained from shagging the oil companies that they wont do anything sensible....

Bslad

Buybacks halted part way through last Thursday (as the price had varied by greater than 5%).

Recommenced Monday albeit at a slightly lower rate (485k compared to 500k previously)

We will pass the 2/3 completed stage on Thursday, and I will give a more detailed post on progress at that point

Pain in the ass algos doing their thing on ultra low volume as they often do :(

Still ridiculous though

Hmmm no buyback figures from yesterday.....have they paused things or are the RNS people asleep? :)

Guys

If you look on the last BoA disclosure you will see there was a large cash settled swap sue to be settled today (around 11m shares)

I think all thats happened is that one has dropped off the list causing todays RNS. Will probably be replaced by a longer date one in next few days

Personally I think the whole BoA and JPM swaps are a colossal distraction

Well from a high at 262 we pulled back to finish bang on the 20 day EMA

I personally would be happy if we consolidated here for a short while. However I will be watching to see if the algos use this area as an excuse to go into overdrive and try to pull us lower.

What was the reason for US $ to go on a mini surge this afternoon?....taken down brent and gold a bit

This is one area where I certainly have a gap in my knowledge

Maybe they have a pre-approved plan with their brokers and they dont get involved. Maybe there are FCA rules that dont allow buybacks to abnormally influenc price movements....I really dont know

There have certainly been at least three instances where buybacks have paused do to a larger price rise, although I cant see the same when the price has dumped lol

With my tin foil hat on, maybe management have been happy to see lower prices for a continued period in order to buy their 500k a day at a low price without pushing the price up. Be interesting to see what happens if the price continues to rise

You might be right about it being sector specific, but on my weekly bar charts, this is the first time since November 2022 it has broken above the 20 day EMA and the 250 resistance area

The 25,50 MACD has also turned up from an incredibly low base - again first time since Nov 22

Perhaps clutching at straws, but also perhaps baby steps toward a change in trend

Ive had closing shares pencilled in at 771.5m for a while, though that may increase a bit if share price continues to rise (a trade off most will be happy with)

I make it around 47 trading days to completion, so unlikely to be completed by TU on 24.08 imho. More likely mid-September unless they up the pace of buybacks to get it done by results day

Edit error in my figures

To date 40,718,658 bought back at dollar cost of $125.7m

(I hadnt spotted that yesterdays buyback was curtailed short of 500k - presumably as a result of over 5% gain?)

BSL

As of last night - 40.907,792 shares repurchased at average VWAP of £2.4616

Dollar cost circa $126.4m

Approx 47 days of buybacks left at current rate

Having moved over the average VWAP yesterday, the buyback stood apprx £2.4m in the black as of last nights close. Will be quite a bit higher today if the current gain holds

Average VWAP of purchases to date is around £2.46 so we are at least closing in on 'breakeven'

Im not saying for one minute its been the most efficient use of circa $125m, but would be nice to show a theoretical gain on the exercise, in addition to the theoretical future benefits of better EPS and yield

Edit - buybacks should pass the 2/3 complete mark next week

Edit Edit - Nice premium and volume on the closing UT trade today

Jeez people learn to read Short Tracker

YET AGAIN all that has happened is one of the shorts (AQR Capital) has bought back just enough to drop back below the 0.5% level. They are still there just back to being sneaky and invisible

Onedb

Genuine question (need to fill in a gap in my knowledge).

When you have time can explain how they work. Do BoA/JPM benefit from a rising or falling price?

Sorry if this sounds thick.....its just one thing ive never got my head round