Member Info for NAV_Mike

Also....on a separate note, its taken about three months, but we have nearly made up the xd adjustment from 14.08.25

I think it closed around 238 the day before

We are currently in the process of breaking beyond previous mid-August highs around 230. I was expecting a consolidation or slight pullback, so I am perfectly content with this weeks action

(Next week though - 242+ please!)

Well its a sign of where we are headed and market seems to be in favour

Need time to digest this and for more analysis to come out

Thanks for the reply mate, though it hasnt helped my nerves. Everyone is now so down on Sareum and the christmas lull is just around the corner.

Come on BoD, for once in your lives, do something to actually benefit your effin shareholders....

@bailiff

Seeing your statement that you have sold out half your holding has made my heart sink. Without wanting to know any details, can one ask when this took place? Last week perhaps?

Week 13 07.11.25

Total shares repurchased to date 19,282,161

Total vwap spend to date £41.755m

Average vwap price paid £2.1655

Average daily vwap spend £642.4k

A continuation of last weeks strengthening. Share price surplus over vwap paid increased again to 13.45p. However average daily spend continued to reduce, this week by £15.3k and thus buyback period is extended once more

Based on $100m = £75.5m, buyback is projected to last 117 trading days / 52 days remaining

Christ, thats an overly negative interpretation. The price was only off 3p on a day when:

Market was gloomy

Brent couldnt make headway over $64

Share price is sitting almost bang on short tern resistance, and most importantly.....

Its a Friday, and HBR doesnt do Fridays normally

I wont be losing sleep over the weekend

Well we are going to need something as Christmas draws near. A lack of news coupled with peoples need to release mince pie money could exert a downward drag on prices.

Edit - a bit too much selling to be absorbed today. I wonder if we will see a late 100k again?

I have 242 as the next level of significance. Above this is a 40p 'band of congestion' which previously lasted from September to December 2024

Uptrend looks intact so following a succesful retest of 192 we may be on the way to 260-280?

Im sure Stupmy will have 10 reasons why im wrong, but its Friday and HBR have had another decent week :)

Well there were 3 x sell trades of 30k+ that add up to 100768. Perhaps the 100k is why the price didnt dip. Pure guesswork mind

Yes I agree....some people have a decent short term % profit to take, and are probably doing so in case ORCA goes back to sleep at which time selling out can be more difficult

It is only the nature and sudden-ness of the recent move that made people suspect news I think. Hopefully there is some and will come soon

Arrgh oh for an edit button.....

" I personally would be happy with a short consolidation around these levels pending developments"

Also from a charting point of view, the price is in the 230p region I mentioned pre-results, which was the top of the last decent up move in August. This may prove short resistance, seeing as we havent smashed through it on stellar update numbers. I personally with a short consolidation around these levels pending developments

On the subject of debt, I am calmer than others it seems. The increase wasnt down to the buyback as we had only expended circa £24m by 30.09. The debt is medium dated with a realistic coupon, with maturities up to 2028 already pre-funded. Ive said before this isnt like the old days, where debt was almost entirely RBL based. Now they can plan carefully for maturing debts, and if necessary, issue new bonds where needed....however im sure they wont need to

Needs the news now, else short term traders will start exiting (perhaps already started)

I would think the brokers have a pre-approved model within which to operate. I dont think its signalling an imminent retreat, but as you say, buying back is perhaps less effective at higher prices. I also dont know whether they would factor in the upcoming trading update....ie maybe wait for next clear direction? Probably not

Jeez its really fun keeping people updated. Whilst HBR may not operate the buyback it will have parameters to work within. I only mentioned this because buying is reducing very noticeably over the last week or so and certainly since we returned to the 220s

Blimey.....the daily volume and spend continues to fall very noticeably. Yesterday was the lowest to date and the only volume day below 200k so far.

Either they dont enjoy buying back at these levels, or they want to prolong the buyback period?

A little late as was warned last week. Some of the comments at the end maybe of mild interest to people, but perhaps superceded by all the trading update chatter.....

Week 12 31.10.25

Total shares repurchased to date 18,288,737

Total vwap spend to date £39.47m

Average vwap price paid £2.1579

Average daily vwap spend £657.7k

Numbers continued to strengthen after the previous weeks turnround. Share price surplus over vwap paid increased to 9.2p

The (possibly) interesting stats are:

Average VWAP paid has now flatlined from 21.10 to 31.10 at around 2.155ish. This could just be a statistical anomaly, but it has coincided with a noticeable drop off in daily repurchase volume (and see below)

Average daily spend has started dropping for the first time.....from a peak of £670k down to 657.7k, with recent spends being well below this

Are they trying to extend the buyback period or am I seeing things that arent there?

I have altered the £value of the buyback fund to £75.5m based on £1.325 / $. This isnt hugely scientific so dont wail at me, but i thought six months at 1.34 and six months at 1.31 would throw up this kind of average. It has extended the period by approx 4 days, but we are still well past half way

Based on $100m = £75.5m, buyback is projected to last 115 trading days / 55 days remaining

Looks like MMs have been getting their books balanced today. Big imbalance to the sell side but price only off a small amount.

My money is on Woodland Capital supplying the shares

Not a prediction, but ive previously stated I would be more than happy if the share perice attained recent highs around 230p by the time of the update. After that its anyones guess. Hopefullt OPEC+ dont do anything stupid this weekend