Member Info for NathanR999

Yes its realistic but for me caveated in the following ways.

We secure 40- 50% market share on DMS with a good average selling price and hence profitable sale (for me this is mirror derived as the major share)

Guardian scales to >500k fitments and monitoring revenue.

Aviation becomes decent profitable centre within 3 years.

My base case is 50p but have a extreme case based on bidding war and the race to integrate very heavily in adas and augmented visual field in the windscreen. This is predicated on capital markets returning to more risk acceptance and a US listing. I feel 1.50 could be achieved in that arena. Every 5% over 50% market share and guardian active fitments running to I feel really solidifies a figure north of 1.50. I guess we have to be patient and hope our solution delivers what it promises and supplants the alternatives and gets mobileye level market share and a valuation in that arena. My fears is a bid around 30p being accepted before the penny drops. I think the possibility of £3 would need very very hard stretches of imagination and conditions. Very difficult to justify a high bid now unless maybe Magna win lot of mirror business and they want that under own control. I could see a partial divestment of DMS to Magna and rest remains in a rump company covering guardian, caterpillar and aviation royalties with a perpetual license to magna for IP. But what do I know? LOL

ABSOLUTELY!!!!!: Lewbo Buying in market maybe impossible around timings if he knows more being inside and has been given indications of tier 1 positioning for DMS. Taking the options now at close to market price may be a subtle hat tip. Interpret and make of it what you will - I take it as a positive and remain happy to let this playout over the coming years. Smarteye and Seeingmachines will both do well and investors at todays price in either company will likely do min of 4-5x in 3 yrs. Cipia at todays price will likely get a dilution but still 2x ( mostly due to them being acquired by another dms company or gentex to support their mirror work or maybe even tesla to bring inhouse) GLA and DYOR

And smarteye today down 5% below 50 sek again. Tough market. Even if we announce our own Japanese deal for 50mil usd lifespan not convinced we would hold onto any gain. Both companies need to be on a more long term speculation minded capital market that reflects future revenue.

I get the feeling Smarteye are low balling the market at maybe a very small margin to capture volume ready for a quicker sale. I refuse to believe that a total solution in a mirror isn't gonna be cheaper in the longer run vs hitch potch of camera and ir placement. We.may have to suck it up in the short term. The quality of eye tracking and algorithms are unlikely to be better if Collins will use in aerospace which is a quantum above for reliable performance and BMW are using for 3d AR HUDs needing super accuracy. However if we don't get any further wins and it all goes Smartye then I will be joining people at the top of a tall building. Hoping this isn't superior betamax vs volume vhs. Keep the faith all.

And smarteye announce a JAPANESE deal. FFS

Outwith of DMS some very cool features coming to future cars. Some will clearly emerge in high end first and then trickle down ranges as scale reduces cost. Really interesting for any car buffs of how the experience in a car will change.

On the basis of wider DMS supplier base Smart Eyes recent low level surge in share price to close to 50 SEK is now back to just over 45 SEK. King of DMS shareholders also affected by share price depression and glumness no doubt. Cipia also falling back downwards from their mini recent surge. Risk off prevails.

So based on disclosed fitments by us and intimated by data shown be smarteye at various sources and by own disclosure there are roughly 2.5 million cars on road with camera based dms. It maybe more if those that have in House or cipia. So 40% seems pretty reasonable and run rates of models to come for us and smarteye that will continue give or take 5% (likely to upside maybe for both). Total market uptake and total car volumes for europe will be 100% uptake for camera based within 5 years. The volume if we maintain this 40 to 50% share will be large indeed. 40% I feel is secure unless Gentex via a partner or cipia do better than expected. The game in Europe is smarteye or us. Both will do well.i believe we will do better imho

Zooming in I thought it may say BMW i4. Not sure the mirrors match piccies I could find. Who knows??

Its not a fisker from the dash. Could it be a magna testbed they do as a one off to show off all areas they cover including end to end car manufacture??

Is anybody connected to the guy in the linkedin post to ask?

Ta. Very helpful.

200 grand in UK pounds is a very nice kitchen. Anyone know what their holding in numbers or share before and after this sale as most of stuff I could access was not in English. Compare.and contrast with our CFO..

Have BMW explicitly said this bit out loud independently. Colin clearly more.in the know than most as that's his job but Colin saying it's See won't have the.market weight that BMW actively name checking See. Is there a data piece that anyone can point to that Seeingmachines is referred to by BMW employee directly as being the driver for this fantastic HUD system. We have seen the implied RNSs and the exper commentary but missing piece of jigsaw. Really frustrating the real opacity of technical RFQs and awards in car industry (I am sure it happens elsewhere too), I understand why but it really makes investing a very large act of belief and trust.....and filling gaps of information. I saw a different company called acconeer on a redeye automotive .supplier day.online as they were on before Smarteye and some of the things they do were pertinent to radar sensing for things like foot waving control of car boots and sensing of say heart beats of car occupants but again very hard to invest as they were even more niche and the other information needed to complete my interests was not really available. Still of interest but.even harder to understand the upside.and risk that DMS!! Dual sourcing makes it even harder., we supercruise and bluecruise have us as partners in that functionality but could we be certain all iterations will be us or a mixture of us and smarteye esp when you get announcements on US oem for both SEE and SMARTEYE. Only real measure.of certainty is awards of models on the road and ours are going up q by q. We already are open on that granular number vs competitors. Smarteye don't - why don't they? Clearly its a waiting game, if we keep doing what we do and the rfq awards keep dropping at the level PmG has suggested and we maintain 40 to 50% in market share in auto, keep building guardian and Collins really drive aviation use we will be fine. Its just tough waiting for what feels like an age to move forward esp when you see inferior tech businesses that don't seem to do much on the.profit side getting insane valuations.

Sorry the 'could be nuffin' jokey tone maybe didnt come across as I tended in text -was more jibe on the negative Nellie's poo pooing potential. Where BMW lead on this I can see others following and really fusing the safety side, the eye gaze and the need for accelerated processing to really transform the driving visual field in a safe way. A hud style visual interface that replicates on massive scale an augmented reality headset like apple that you look through rather than meta that is more avatar like. The optical path will be.king and we know we focus on this as well as the software function. Very exciting developments to be sure. It would be nice if BMW explicitly name checked us facilitating this step change in human/car interface.

Depending on how much weight you place on social likes a couple of higher level Seeing Machines employees liking the post. Could be nuffin......

Love seeing all these patents and potential uae cases and marrying of automotive eye tracking with other functionality. Now some of these maybe internal dms not see or smarteye but if implemented the data call on processors will very high. This for me is the key for the need to have dedicated asics or NPU cores built for eye/human tracking to drive the load of maybe multiple cameras or sheer bandwidth of data and the speed that needs to interact to the central computer. Exciting times and having that in SEE armoury is super vital and the faith the semi conductor companies have shown in SEE and that have licencesd and built in occula NPU suggests the market is there and will be needed. I think share of market to 2027 prob will be 40ish % seeingmachines. 40ish for smarteye and the rest cipia and others. However as progress is made in how user interface, adas and augmented driving features merge I predict we will get closer to 60% and the legislation outside of eu where we know this is a done deal won't matter as it will be the augmented features that will drive it. Hopefully the future value of this will be recognised early but i do think this will need exposure to.more future supprting investor bases in the us to get the multi billion mcap we all hope for here. The adjacent verticals that could use eye tracking that see haven't even explored publicly would increase value further. Imho

My apologies to the redeye guy. Jesper not Jakob....

Martin is truly awful front man for Smarteye. I have said before when permagrin Jakob asks even softball questions, Martin really gives out dog ate homework vibes.

I asked 4 questions via their premeeting portal which were pertinent to competitive landscape and not one was added. One on Martins thoughts on aviation post Collins deal (they have recently on socials bigged up aviation) asked about the mirror for comment on Gentex announcing their solution and smarteyes take on them maybe being at a disadvantage on this area. I asked about the trajectory of OMS/DMS integration to ADAS and the competing calls on cpu time for a software only route vs tailored asic etc and final one about further dilution being needed if numbers done ramp at rate expected due to oem.delays. the software tier 1 stuff bypassing the tier 2 actual implementation needs is fantasy land stuff. Business desperate for a buyer.

If cipia struggled to raise but have awarded contracts then an acquisition of cipia might work. They could strip out a lot of engineering and admin cost quickly and add to bottom line nicely.

If we announce decent news and this was recognised in a decent t rerate I wouldn't be against some dilution to acquire both tobii and cipia. Tobii has some interesting stuff that could feed into the research use side similar to what smarteye emotions/affectivia do. Again some headcount reduction and back office savings to aid profitability and a new vertical. The tobii stuff for tv/monitors/ wearable glasses would have some potential on how we interact more deeply with tv/PC set ups.

Just my thoughts and could be a distraction but....

We already have demonstrable alternative sitings to mirror. The supercruise and blue cruise are camera and illumination modules not in mirror as just two examples. Redeye are smartye house broker and are deliberately playing down mirror as they can't access. Gentex are spending money in this area and who knows if they bought cipia/tobii and even smarteye they would likely be a future challenger. They have decent share in rear.mirror which could get eaten by magna so have a decent chunk to.lose so won't just let that happen. Initial investment in mirror by magna won't have been done lightly. The cost aspect- the chip this could still be central core cpu but that will be challenged by all the tasks that it will do overall as feature creep migrates down ranges. A dedicated asic for adas/ar/oms/dms that uses hard baked acceleration will be advantageous for maximising software availability and speed under high load. The adas stuff already sits in mirror area so not much extra spend if any. The camera is needed for all dms/OMS but in mirror means fitting a mirror means that x,y,z models on platform that may have subtle or not so subtle differences in interior do not need different housings for IR/camera and all the engineering and extra steps to manufacture. The mirror would be more LEAN in production and cost saving. The mirror itself is a cost, the scale of fitment will bring cost down and potentially magna get a mirror win also vs competition. Overall package cost below two diff suppliers. Magna also do huge business with mobileye in adas, another potential shaving of cost.

Bill of materials likely overall when manufactured process cost also factored is likely below a software only approach.

Smarteye via their broker trying to muddy waters and keep their own investors on board and calm. Imho.