Member Info for NathanR999

It's free to get access to redeye and could be useful for some Nordic companies we might not encounter too.much news on in UK without turning a lot of rocks of over. Any questions need some up votes - just saying...

Fancy asking some interesting questions of smarteye analyst / broker Redeye re Smarteye?

Link below -- use wisely ;-)

https://www.redeye.se/research/948036/smart-eye-investment-case-de-risked?conversation=qa&utm_source=follower&utm_medium=email

Knowing the market space that NCYT operate in with extreme detail David Allmond as a more Pharma orientated C suite experienced individual may have been a poor move on both sides. However NCYT at the time he joined was a slow moving car crash as Covid was beginning to be over with testing locked out to the big guys in hospital market like roche, abbott and thermo and thermo got a lot of the lighthouse work, the test suite they had was a one trick pony and the regulatory overheads were massively increased with CTDA and that was a nightmare. They bought and marketed the IT-IS systems which are quite unloved by users and marketed falsely as point of care where they are clearly unsuited for this. The DHSC dispute could go either way but having put together a consortium bid to run and supply a lighthouse lab I am so grateful we lost that bid as the site ultimately never opened and the cost exposure would have left us with.multi million liabilities. They.may win their case, they have cash but have no real strategy and maybe there is a decent business hiding in their but investor base was a lot of new covid lockdown funds chasing the price and its ultimate high was fantasy land stuff valuation. Non of the share price decline is really attributable to DA and the current price is roughly fair.imho the days of over a quid for them long gone without real investment in product and certification and a decent outcome vs dhsc. DA may have been honest about what they needed to do, the rest of board disagreed and that may have led to leaving. Will be interesting in how the dynamic of DA and JS will develop.

Beat me to it. Yep no KPIs. The fact that we disclose vs the non broken out auto and no idea of cars on road I really don't know what to make of that. They clearly are increasing cars on road but it makes me wonder their unit pricing is very low ir numbers on road disappointing? We moan about us not shouting from roof tops but surely as king of dms they would be ramming cars on road down investors throats?

Just check on the ir portal for smarteye i think in the smarteye q2 presentation they mentioned 1.3m so they will be in advance but as they don't reliably define cars on road I am guessing they may make a song and dance of 1.5m??

This softer quarter looks to be industry wide. Maybe some impact from strikes in US and as another poster mention model switchover period. May also explain house coverage from Redeye for Smarteye being revised downwars for the quarter. Will be interesting to see their progress tomorrow. Any views on if 1.3m vehicles is likely still behind cars on road for smarteye? Next few months/ quarter for RNS and next 4 quarters to show ramp up is confirmed.

Absolutely Future logic! However the last years grind down on small caps gas been relentless and the market has not been particularly forgiving and even if we blow doors off what the market thinks is unpredictable.....

Https://corporate.tobii.com/investors/financial-reports/2023/11/tobiis-interim-report-third-quarter-2023-weak-quarter-but-target-for-q4-profitability-remains

Tobii down 20odd percent after missing quarter guidance. Best hope we do our numbers and the figures are received well. MCAP of tobii looking interesting for consolidation purposes.

Looking at their total revenue in 2024 for auto is 23m usd equivalent. Their research arm in 2024 gonna do similar if projected becomes reality. Their automotive includes aftermarket and NRE as I understand it. What is concensus forecast for SEE in comparative quarter for cNov 2024. If aftermarket and monitoring scales to 6 figure installs and we deliver our booked revenue and execute as planned then some pointy questions for Martin Krantz on how firm the many many many oems and models they were awarded we actually cancelled or retendered?

Wonder if some kind of complex equity swap/financing to build out a wider offer? Maybe the.doldrums at cab payments being seen as a potential to build a business and take advantage of cabs woes. Bit of housekeeping on costs and scale business quicker/cheaper??

Bit more volume comparatively too. 50 grand is a decent chunk of change. Hopefully all buys and one buyer building a stake but the point made earlier in thread re getting hold of 5% will need a lot of buying over many days and that kind of stake will drive a decent rise if bought on market otherwise will take ages to get that without knocking price higher quickly.

The directors also exist in the world and on that basis have other calls on their money. They may also have there own portfolios of investments and as an decent IFA will suggest should be a multi asset strategy rather than all your personal wealth in one asset. One could argue that directors maybe more free to buy as we likely don't bid for contracts directly so awards out of hands so.more open periods. Those awards we have had historically maybe a mix of tier 1 and direct meaning limits on buying. Buying 200k shares at current price may seem small beans to some but its roughly 10k and for higher earners that's roughly 20k of earnings before tax/ni etc. Directors buying millions at current levels in Nvidia would get investors frothing but ultimately they will be proven to.maybe average poor return on a long term basis if the numbers drift from expectations even may make a loss. Directors in aim companies buying shares can't win with PIs I feel.

Smarteye - nothing new, still saying over a million cars but no definitive figure. 75% revs is research. Awful presentation again. Still heavily trailing software tier 1 status and processor agnostic and working directly with oem engineers rather than tier 1. Make of that what you will- I don't buy it and the valeo, bosch, continental and magna tier 1 would need input and advise thier solution.

Acconeer still interests me. Prob overvalued somewhat but the interior functions their radar facilitates is interesting when linked with optical dms. One to watch.

The q&a discussion hosted by Jesper

Acconeer suggests radar complementary to optical. MK agreed. MK.suggesting sensor data needs fusion and sees imotions as a way of delivering fusion via software on a central computer.

MK talking about reg environment in Japan-likely to follow eu/us regs. Likely universal uptake of ncap like testing.

MK inadvertently making case for easy roll out of dms across global car platforms even if local regs don't require - that really adds weight to easy to bolt on solution, say a mirror....

Smarteye suggesting other applications possible but not looking to create new division like aviation. Focusing on automotive and research - prob realises game over for them in aviation due to cost and market access with Collins sewn up and costs needed to certify for aviation. Smart deal for seeing machines and credit to PMG. Seen off major player that could also have done something different.

Jesper asked about software agnostic vs seeing machine. Completely missed the point that seeing also is just software in the end. Smarteye see them selves as Switzerland of dms. Make of that what you will.

Yep. Royalties I reckon. Could be a chip used for say the valeo solution posted a while back that was a one box solution or for Magna mirror and adas forward facing. Might be overall cheaper solution or more integrated solution than say magna (or someone else) using two chips one for oms/dms and say eyeQ Mobileye forward facing for adas. Could also be if the indie chip took off a way to force Mobileye to license occula npu for future eyeQ chips. All these optimisations and silicon hardware surely must mean something for our overall market share - designing and getting chips manufactured is not cheap endeavour without real live projected sales volumes. These chips may also have some utility in aviation maybe for plane taxiing

safety on the ground alongside pillot monitoring. Who knows? What are we missing here? Car component sourcing is so multilayered.and opaque that although I think seeingmachines will be a portfolio maker for me I probably wouldn't invest in autotech again. The nda, dual sourcing and.multilayered vendor partners wrecks my head!

SEE getting battered down, Smarteye back closer to 40 SEK than over 50 SEK from a few months back in the glow of post fund raise and a couple of design wins. Cipia down lower after some recent spike upwards. Tobii down 50% on year.

Non of the companies are profitable. Smarteye projected like q4 2024. We are projecting similar (end h1 24/25 FY). No idea on Cipia or Tobii. Who will need a cash call first? We do have decent revenue base from Cat, Collins and our Guardian (although our costs are higher but I would argue we have taken a very different route to software only so r and d costs.more and will have significant book value and value accrual further out) Cipia will have Israel investment aspects and headwinds to deal with as well as wider macro. Semiconductor companies partnering to design chips with our dms npu surely is a positive indicator? Not seeing any other.dms provider doing that - they are just adjusting and optimising software for a specific iteration of an arm based chip that also has to run every other software routine stacks. I can't believe you have those 4 companies worth less than half a billion quid total when yearly sales are likely to be 300-400million total in 4 or so years. Massive valuation gap I think. Race to breakeven now and how the award gap of cars in eu/row needing dms by legislation but volume not yet awarded is then attributed. Market realities affecting dms players equally- would want to be raising.money in next 12.months - will be painful.

Redeye autotech day tomorrow

https://www.redeye.se/events/908669/redeye-theme-autotech-2

Smarteye presenting - for those interested redeye have also update their research to indicate a small reduction to target price for smarteye who they cover. Also suggesting some potential for their increases in cars on road - thier quarterly is around early/mid November. Will be interesting if in their presentation tomorrow they put a figure out for cars on road or if that is finally disclosed as a kpi quarterly as we already have been doing. Our kpi due around similar time as smartye q3.

The great white hope of hydrogen elctrolysers for commercial scale 400m mcap. Compare and contrast their final results from Aug and ours today. Which company do you feel will likely do well, grow to profitability and maybe set a worldwide benchmark for sales in the thier respective fields and set the narrative for performance and standard setting in the industry. It won't change our share price today or even tomorrow but 30 to 100 baggers need many many years of patient holding. A lot of PI jump in and out of shares chasing the next recommendation from fintwit, everyone needs their sugar hit every 2 minutes. I have held now for 8ish years and I absolutely thought we may have moved faster and gone higher valuation than today. If I sold tomorrow where would I go outside a boring fund or two. Where we are now for me is the floor - we may or may not need some cash in 12 to 18 months but it won't be raised on aim and the dilution won't be as painful as previous in my view. Feel free to disagree but if you move on good luck and I wish all the luck in the world in whatever new investment you choose but I am here for a few years more.

Share price hammered down by 4% on c7mil of shares traded weighted to sells. c0.2% of shares in issue. One hopes any substantial positive news and a decent uplift again next 2 quarters in our published kpi really ought to start movement of the needle the other way in decent moves. Very frustrating. Current market caps added of 4 largest dms/eyetracking conpanies roughly half bill usd. Yearly revs in Europe based on 10 million cars is 100mill usd on 10usd per car. Throw in other markets with no mandating but need the adas functionality support then market completely missing a misprice for see and smarteye I feel. Us indices/investor base more willing to factor this earlier in share price (rightly or wrongly) If you could get all 4 companies tomorrow for a billion you wouldn't lose money and likely 4x your cash. Patience is key here but by God its hard work.

GEN 3 Launch at CES - shipping April ish. Still need Guardian 2.0 for Cat and booked customers. Clearly parallel sales for a while yet.

In lap of Collins for aviation but will get NRE but sales/commercial driven by Collins.

Trains relaunch more direct approach rather than Progress as distributor

Still waiting on OEM/Tier 1 for rfqs. Many rfqs stopped and relaunched - again bids down to tier 1.

Scale currently too small for Nasdaq but under review. Cash burn down to 1mil per month circa q4 fy24. Will be close run thing and I've didn't shy away from.questions.

My question about smarteye AIS being a threat was answered well I thought. Lost of business to get, other will try and get their share non currently have the true added value for small/large fleet needs of monitoring of actually undertanding staffing and driver support re pings for eyes off unsafe behaviour. Agree with thier argument on a binging noise is one thing but to drive long term safety culture the monitoring is where we win. One man band vs corporate employee safety which is baked into say ISO business needs and esg scoring. Expects 50% of gsr related fitments to translate to.monitoring.

My take home is we are doing what we say, sowm headwinds which affect everyone and future looks decent and working cap being managed to ensure no future raise to keep lights on. My view is that Nasdaq will be on table later next year and funds raised via that and my view this will drive consolidation and feature /extension tech bolt on.

Both flagship ev delayed 6 months due to software issues. These software defined vehicles are great aren't they..... Getting multiple software solutions to integrate and play nicely is gonna be a nightmare as code change OTA on one thing may make others misbehave. ASICS that drive a specific routine like our Occula walls off what will be a mission critical safety feature especially if working with Misson critical adas safety features I feel are the safe reliable choice. In aircraft it will be this x10. Package an asic chip into mirror housing alongside or as part of an Adas build with the camera in a design ready site like the mirror really ought to do so well in the market. We.might only see the software cost coming to us but our partners like valeo or magna will be bidding a total solution that drives down cost of delivery/execution minimising risk of failure. The unknowns that then need to be factored or designed around for a software only route is a risk flag. Sure Gentex may do something but showing a prototype at a Tradeston is not the same of demonstration vehicles with working solution and cars from 2024 with working in car on the road proof. Talk is very cheap and buying cheap often means buying twice. Still a lot of patience needed here I feel but we continue to move forward. GLA