Member Info for Nastynick

Of course I am invested so I want RKH to win and win big.
But there was a rejection of the production concession about & months before RKH finalised their purchase of MOG and the Italy state defence lawyers will probably state that this showed that their was a doubt the concession would ever be approved. The reasons for that rejection of the concession are important, because if just environmental, the EIA was approved subsequently...so it follows the production concession should have? Otherwise why would RKH waste their money doing an EIA if the production concession was never coming ?
I think we will do ok

Due diligence and mitigation of losses are definitely 2 of the main defence claims.
Whether we think they are rubbish or not.
The lawyers for the state will try and make a case that RKH should have known that there was some risk that OM didn’t proceed when they bought MOG...hence the due diligence issue.
The other case is that RKH should have stated in their contract with MOG if they aren’t award a production concession then they get compensated ...insured against basically.
We can consider this unreasonable given the progress that MOG made and approvals by Italy state, but if you were a lawyer the points of due diligence and mitigation maybe the only defence you have.
From what I have read so far...I think the odds are certainly in favour that we are awarded a claim, I’ll be disappointed if anything less then 50%

What do we need the “cash now” for?
Surely we just need to keep the lights on?
I’d rather have the full claim spread over time.
100m, 200M, 300M isn’t going to get Sealion off the ground, we need someone with bigger financial clout to stump that up
In my opinion
The award is key, how much...I wouldn’t want that diluted personally
The board still have some hobnobs left

I thought yesterday was Rockbottom...no pun intended.

But we all been here before...I was never selling at those prices. The OM claim is a solid one and the likelihood is we get paid out at least 50%, with this the company is viable for quite a while and if able to use the time wisely to gain the financial backing for a scaled down production plan of Sea Lion....the gamble is back on

The production concession wasn’t approved...this will be the Italian Government’s point, so the development was always at risk until that time.
For me it’s a weak argument, you don’t invest countless millions and then they suddenly don’t allow you to produce. More likely they only give you the production concession after you have been through a process and completed the necessary pre work. It’s a kind of milestone event.

Either way, sentiment is everything...if we get the claim approved and it’s at least 50%, the sop will follow....some positivity on Navitas and for me we are much better than position waiting for a claim and shackled by the PMO farm out. Hopefully we reached the bottom and will come up for air .

This is why if the “lack of due diligence” defence is upheld, the claim going by passed historical cases ends up being reduced by 50% ...still a very tidy sum and I hence the most likely outcome according to Kluwers

On this point, Italy could object to the Claimant that it did not carry out an exhaustive due diligence prior to making the investment, as its failed to assess correctly the feasibility of its project on the basis of the circumstances available when it took the decision to invest. Indeed, tribunals have recognized that Claimant’s own conduct in the course of obtaining the investment undermines the chances of a successful FET claim every time a failure to exercise due diligence is shown in the undertaking of a viability study of the project before investing therein. Even if RKH was subrogated to MOG in all its rights by means of its acquisition, the content of these rights is not the same where the core element of the causa petendi is the legitimate expectations the rightsholder might have at the time he/she made the investment (being these moments different in time). Since by the time the Claimant made its investment (by closing the acquisition of MOG in August 2014), the government had already enacted, in June 2010, a decree banning oil concessions near the coasts and an Administrative Court had already intervened in April 2014 by upholding the Government’s refusal to grant MOG the relevant concession (because further environmental assessments were necessary due to the complexity of the project), RKH’s expectations with respect to that oilfield definitely could not have been as high as those of MOG when it first discovered it in 2008.
Tribunals have also recognized claimant’s duty to mitigate the damages suffered. Italy indeed could contend that it was Claimant’s duty to reduce such damages by relying on the prudent means available in M&A deals. For instance, RKH should have set the grant of the production concession either as a condition precedent to the closing of the acquisition, or ask MOG to make it an item of a specific representation subject to an indemnity in the event of non-attainment thereof, or ask for a price reduction given that RKH was not awarded therewith. Of course, since the details of the acquisition are confidential, in case RKH did address this matter in such a cautious way in the SPA, there might be risk of double recovery.

All from Kluwers arbitration blog

(Most likely) Outcome: 50% off

In cases where the respondent proved investor’s lack of due diligence or failure to minimize losses, tribunals often made the Solomonic decision of reducing by 50% the amount of damages awarded (e.g. MTD v Chile, Award § 244–246; EDF v. Argentina, Award § 1302-1312), by holding the claimant accountable for half of its own losses and the host State liable for the other half.

The above copied from Kluwers arbitration blog...makes a good read in the case

Think about it, if the Italians had won the case they wouldn’t be throwing in this last ditch effort?
For me it means RKH has won , it’s just the amount that is unknown. I stand by what I said yesterday in my opinion yesterday was the bottom, if I had some spare cash I would be adding because I think this could be 10p when the case is announced ...not ramping...it’s a risky share as we all know by now.
Good luck

I wrote to Sam (email) and he wrote back personally. I think there were some poor decisions along the way, the PMO farm out was disaster really as time was (and still is) the biggest factor. Maybe we should have packaged the deal differently and made it more attractive for share holders. That said Sam did reply and ended it with any more questions ...please ask.

My guess is we are at or close to the bottom, if you look historically this is where we sit when all confidence is lost. A good OM decision (is what I expect) should be back over 10p. Then we either need a partner who can invest or sell up. I’d take 20p a share and/or a share offer in the new company who buys. Say 20p cash and shares that would give us equivalent of 10-20% of any sea lion profits generated....I’d be happy with that...not the get rich scheme I wanted...but steady clawback of lost assets.

Is he still posting? With some other name? The heady days of drilling and Desire, ten knowing the basin is full to brimming....sea lion is just the start, but the timing has sucked so much....one day the world might realise we still need oil and it’s not a tap you can just turn back on

New name for company......really disillusioned today. Lowest point for me in 35 years. We found the gold mine, that was what I thought was the high risk bit....never thought finding someone with a pick axe was the hardest bit.
Hindsight....I’ll stop posting....vented enough

Something I really didn’t understand.
Same said we got $231M when premier farmed in and $200M of the money went on capital gains tax and funding with Premier for engineering studies etc...something like that.
What the heck...so we got paid $200M to fund premier engineering for studies...this sounds ridiculous...so we actually got nothing for the farm out...just 10 years of a useless operator who couldn’t even start the project.

Keep dreaming my friend, when you have been invested for 35 years in the falkands oil fiasco like me, dreaming is all you have left...

Instead of farming out to premier and buy Egyptian into oil producers, would it have been an option to sink just one production well and gain revenues from that. I speak from a position of having little technical knowledge. But the plans for producing have been revisited and revised so many times and so many years have passed, I reckon for a fraction of all these studies they could have used a rig to keep bringing up oil and keep the company viable with revenues?

The trouble with Rockhopper is they always looking for the sugar daddy. They market sea lion and getting 2 offers from 100 companies they approached and both offers couldn’t commit to a timeline to develop sea lion, tells you that they not approaching this correctly. I see from the presentation they now blaming Argentina. If they had some gumption, they would court Argentina, give them a slice of the pie and get them for the project instead of against it.
Fund raising seems inevitable, meaning more dilution. Hob nobs are running out fast. Very disappointed that they let premier fool them without due diligence, premier had poor financial platform and were very risky to get sea lion started. That dumb decision cost us 10 years. The priority was to get Sea lion up and running, the best offer was the one that would do that. I’d rather have 10% of something than 109% of nothing. Business brains missing.
My 2 cents

Sorry I forgot to raise this. Will there be hobnobs at ten meeting tomorrow?
If so put me down for 5 or 6 please

As I posted a while ago and I post little. After 35 years in a get rich quick scheme, waiting a few more weeks or months isn’t going to make too much difference.

We can speculate....my guess is that we will get an award somewhere close to 50% of the claim.
This isn’t any advice what to do, but best to wait until the facts. Yes, this investment has been a monumental disappointment and we can blame the latest BoD, but it’s not over until the fat lady sings.

Sorry double post, glitchy web site