Member Info for Nastynick

This guy has been involved in Sea Lion since 2011, would love to know what he thinks.
https://www.bgs.ac.uk/people/dodd-thomas/

2011 – 2017: Analysis of the Sea Lion discovery and appraisal (North Falkland Basin): Petroleum Geoscientist. Technical reservoir studies on the Sea Lion turbidite fan system and in-place hydrocarbons.

2014 – 2016: Falkland Plateau Basin: Petroleum Geoscientist. Regional mapping, hydrocarbon prospectivity and pre/post-drill analysis

2017 – Ongoing: Falkland Islands Geoscience Consultancy: Project Manager; Petroleum and Sedimentary Geologist. Regional hydrocarbon prospectivity assessments; pre-drill geological report assessments; appraisal drilling analysis; field-scale reservoir analysis.

GLA

Just added 50k+, comes up as a sell here, but it was a buy. Hopefully this is the bottom and some good news in the next few months

Good Luck All

Current spread is nuts, disencouraging buyers surely at almost 15%.

As soon as I get sone funds (will be in next month or so) I’m adding, probably doubling my stake in RKH. The Italian job plus any whiff of FID over coming year and this stock will be multiples of todays price

GLA

I posted this previously and SecretBlueprints post basically but more articulately expressed the same thing. Therefore I see very little chance of the annulment request being upheld.

“Based on annulment history and the way the Italian government wanted to apply EU rulings over international laws I think they will appeal for annulment under item
b) manifest excess of powers by the Tribunal

This has been the most successful category for annulment appeals, but is still extremely small possibility with only 4 cases ever being fully annulled.

This approach was also rejected by the Tribunal a few years ago, as to admit they are basically undermined by the EU would make the ISCID completely impotent.
So I can’t see them upholding that.”

Totally agree this is the power crazy EU versus international law. The EU has been on a power grab for decades and still wants the United States of Europe. Brexit was a major dent to that although some EU supporters are still trying to open that door again via underhand means.

So yes this isn’t Italy versus Rockhopper, this is EU trying to claim power. The Irony will be if Italy also leaves EU and leaves Brussels floundering with their take over of Europe starting to look in tatters.

Based on annulment history and the way the Italian government wanted to apply EU rulings over international laws I think they will appeal for annulment under item
b) manifest excess of powers by the Tribunal

This has been the most successful category for annulment appeals, but is still extremely small possibility with only 4 cases ever being fully annulled.

This approach was also rejected by the Tribunal a few years ago, as to admit they are basically undermined by the EU would make the ISCID completely impotent.
So I can’t see them upholding that.

Ok I found a great article on annulment history and stats

My summary is this

Grounds for annulment:
(a) the improper constitution of the Tribunal; zero annulments
(b) manifest excess of powers by the Tribunal; (4 full annulments, 6 partially)
(c) corruption on the part of a Tribunal member; zero annulments
(d) a serious departure from a fundamental rule of procedure; (1 full annulment, 2 partially)
(e) failure to state reasons. (2 full annulment, 8 in part)

These numbers are tiny compared to the 355 awards

50% of all cases are contested to be annulled only 5% of cases are annulled or partially annulled, probably more are just tweaked a little, but I don’t have that data. So there was a one in two chance Italy appealed and of course they did. Outcome is still looking favourable like 1/20 chance we don’t get the full award plus interest. The sp hasn’t built in any real award anyway, so nothing to lose now

The drafters of the ICSID Convention regarded the annulment process as an exceptional remedy. As a result, ICSID awards can be challenged exclusively within the ICSID Convention framework, on the five defined grounds. These are contained in Article 52(1) of the Convention are the following:

The Tribunal was not properly constituted;
The Tribunal manifestly exceeded its powers;
There was corruption on the part of a member of the Tribunal;
There was a serious departure from a fundamental rule of procedure;
The award failed to state the reasons on which it was based.

This study shows that although applications for annulment are increasingly common, the number of successful annulment applications remains low. Of the estimated 355 ICSID awards rendered under the ICSID Convention as of 31 January 2021, nearly a half were subject to annulment proceedings but only 19 (around 5%) have been annulled in full or in part. Notwithstanding this low success rate, the importance of the ICSID annulment mechanism to the whole investment arbitration system is difficult to overestimate.

Therefore the chances of Italy having even a partial success is extremely low

I do see this as incredible buying opportunity and you can see how little was in the sp for this award. This is a multi bagger we just need one piece of solid good news. Surely it must come?

From what I have read unless the arbitration committee was corrupt the Italian government has zero grounds for the annulment and it should be dismissed out of hand. 18-24 months is a complete joke! I’m completely gob smacked with that time line. This should be 2-4 weeks max.

The big lie, there is 0.041% of CO2 in the atmosphere of which man contributes 3%, the rest is nature.

It’s the suns activity and influence during our orbits that create most of climate changes since world was formed. This hoax is driven by political and economic greed, who use a Scandinavian nerdy teenager as poster child.

Wake up

September is always a bad month for stocks, but I expect recovery by Christmas. I think house market will do well next year but start to fail end of 2024/ beginning of 2025.

Mercopress is garbage and always behind the curve. They just regurgitating the RNS. I hope FID is next year …latest

Same I didn’t realise 4 months temporary freeze on interest. Probably explains why Italy hasn’t paid up yet. After the 4 months it should change.

Also the tax we owe FIG, I was unclear but seems to be around $45M, even discounting that full amount the sp is way below the cash value once Italy pays up. This will mean a rerating for sure, as in theory the company can be bought for say $50M, pay off the tax and still have best part of 100M profit, plus all the licenses and data on Sealion, If I could raise the money I would do it myself!!!

September is always a bad month for shares. Personally I expect sone recovery by end of year in general markets. The Ukraine thing will settle down and there will be improvements.

GLA

Sorry typo / autocorrect should be ear marked not war marked

Maybe Moody put 120k barrels a day because he has secured enough funding in principle from the UK government, 300-500million quid is nothing to them. I asked myself why say could have the potential to be material to secure UK energy and mention the 120k barrels? Maybe that’s the wording he was just working on with the UK government and wanted to mirror it in the RNS to show the agreement is basically in place.

I see no other reason, the oil isn’t UK oil, so mentioning it kind of would make other investors think it’s been war marked ?

I always reading between the lines but I was right on OM, so maybe I’m not so far off the mark.

I agree the last part about sealion being potentially a material part of uk energy security is telling. Why say that? To me it means they are in advanced discussions.

Good luck all, here comes the sun, wouldn’t want to be out of this over the weekend and other such sayings
I do think this is going to be an undoubted meteoric success though