Thinking 💬29 Jan 2026 14:29
The "Copper Re-Rating" is Overpowering the Merger
The primary reason for the push past 530p isn't just the merger; it's the fact that Glencore’s intrinsic value is growing faster than Rio Tinto can print deal documents.
With copper futures hitting $14,000/tonne, Glencore's EBITDA for 2026 is being revised upward by billions.
The Math Change: Analysts are now arguing that on a "standalone" basis (without any merger), Glencore is worth 540p - 560p just based on its copper and marketing cash flows. If the company is worth 550p on its own, Rio Tinto’s bid has to start with a "6" to even be considered a "premium." !!