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A secretive group of the world’s most powerful oil ministers will soon gather in Vienna to take arguably one of the most important decisions that could affect the still fragile world economy: whether to cut production of crude to defend prices at $100 per barrel, or keep open the spigots as winter looms among the biggest energy-consuming nations? A sudden slump in the price of crude has exposed deep divisions within the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) ahead of its final scheduled meeting of the year next month to decide on how much oil to pump. Some members, led by Iran, have called for immediate action to stem the drop in oil prices, while the Arab sheikhdoms of the Gulf have so far argued that it could be another three months before it becomes clear whether the group should cut production for the first time since December 2008. Whatever they decide, oil remains the lifeblood of the global economic system due to its direct impact on inflation and input prices. Brent crude – a global benchmark of oil drawn from 15 fields in the North Sea, dipped last week to multi-year lows below $92 per barrel as a perfect storm of a strong US dollar, oversupply in the system and declining demand shattered confidence in the market. Brent has tumbled 20pc in the last three months after touching $115 per barrel in June

Hospital pass fails to boost Balfour shares: Balfour Beatty’s £61.5 million sale of its stake in Pinderfields and Pontefract Hospital will not be enough to buoy shareholder confidence following the firm’s profit warning on Monday, analysts have said.

U.K. supermarket sell-off is not a buying opportunity: Shares in U.K. supermarkets may look like a bargain after almost halving in value during the past 12 months. The U.K. population isn’t going to stop buying food just because Tesco gets its accounting in a muddle. The fall from grace for the big U.K. supermarkets has been pretty quick, very messy and utterly brutal in terms of value destruction for investors. Tesco shares have collapsed by 51%, Morrisons is down 45% and Sainsury’s has fallen by 41% during the past 12 months. Even worse for investors who have been attracted to the steady dividends was when Tesco slashed its interim dividend by 75%. So, now might not be the best time to go bargain-hunting while there is still fresh blood in the aisles; and there are several reasons why investors should be staying away from U.K. supermarket shares. The first one relates to the most important rule of value investing and that is capital preservation, or what Warren Buffet and Benjamin Graham call a margin of safety. Using Tesco as an example, we can see how the margin for error is not wide enough. The most recent Tesco balance sheet showed net assets – cash, land and stock less debts – of £14.7 billion, or 181p per share. With the current share price at 180.2p you would only get back your original funds at the moment. The second issue is that, when trying to decide the value of a share, you need to get a decent feel for future earnings. For this we need to get back to the very basics of what a share is to point out the stark realities facing investors in U.K. supermarkets. The problem is that market consensus for the year ended March 2015 is that pre-tax profits will fall by almost £200 million to £702 million on revenue of about £24.1 billion, giving a profit margin of about 3%. At the very least this would mean about £200 million less in cash going around to meet interest payments, store refurbishments, pension deficit payments and dividends. Each of the elements that underpin the share price in the U.K. supermarket sector are far too volatile. U.K. supermarket sector. Questor Says ‘Sell’

Bank of England calls for legal power to cap loan-to-value ratio on mortgages: The Bank of England has accepted legal powers to rein-in the mortgage market and prevent another housing bubble.

Domino’s Pizza gains from U.K. recovery: The U.K.’s economic recovery is more buoyant than the rest of Europe, with increasing numbers of British consumers confident enough to buy “affordable treats” while their German and Irish counterparts are reluctant to do so, according to Domino’s Pizza Group.

Oil prices slide as fight for control of Opec heats up: The price of oil tumbled as Saudi Arabia fired the first shots in a battle for control of Opec. Brent crude prices fell by $2.23 to $92.04 a barrel, the lowest since June 2012, as the world becomes even more oversupplied.

Help to Buy gets stamp of approval from Carney: The government’s £12 billion subsidised mortgage scheme has been given the all-clear by the Bank of England, despite sharp criticism from organisations including the International Monetary Fund.

UK construction PMI recorded an unexpected rise in September In September, the construction PMI in the UK climbed unexpectedly to a level of 64.2, compared to a level of 64.0 in the earlier month. Markets were anticipating the construction PMI to drop to 63.5.

BP challenges $18bn Deepwater ruling Oil group believes it has spotted legal mistake in last month’s ruling

Out of bounds: There is something of St Trinians about Daniel Stewart, writes Kate Burgess. The broker shows as fine a judgment for squeezing under the wire as any cheeky, homework-dodging young lady at the academy of free expression. Daniel Stewart habitually slips out its half year results on Christmas Eve when its judges should be full of Yuletide spirits. It then waits nine months to rush out its full year statement just in time for the bell. Not this year though. Having appointed PwC as a new gimlet-eyed invigilator of accounts, it has just missed the deadline for filling full year accounts to March. In comparison Numis, its bigger and more staid rival, looks like a right Goody Two Shoes, informing investors promptly that its revenues were up nearly a fifth in the six months to September. Cash-strapped Daniel Stewart may yet redeem itself, publishing its accounts in the next few days and unfreezing its shares.

LNG boom fuels Australia hopes: The flame flickering on top of a gas flare tower on Curtis Island in Gladstone is a symbol of a rising power in the liquefied natural gas market as three huge coal seam gas plants prepare for switch on.

Almost a fifth of British mortgage holders say they would "really struggle" with any increase in interest rates, according to a survey released on Thursday by a public body. Most economists expect the Bank of England to start to raise interest rates early next year as Britain's economy continues to grow rapidly, but the BoE has said that high household debt is a major reason why it is likely to proceed cautiously. The Money Advice Service, a public body set up in 2011 to provide free financial advice, said that 19 percent of mortgage holders said they would "really struggle to find the extra money" to cover any increase in repayments. This proportion increased to 47 percent if mortgage payments were to rise by 150 pounds ($240) a month - roughly equivalent to an interest rate rise of 2 percentage points on a 150,000 pound mortgage with a term of 20 years. "Mortgage holders need to be more mindful of the fact that a rise in interest rates is widely predicted - even for those on a fixed rate, as their deal will come to an end sooner or later," said Nick Hill of the Money Advice Service.

Westhouse Securities warned over Balfour Beatty: "We have withdrawn our target price for Balfour Beatty as we believe the uncertainty caused by the latest profit warning means the stock is impossible to value at present. We fear the problem contracts at the comparatively tiny Engineering Services unit within UK Construction are a potential black hole threatening the financial health of the group, as contagion starts to spread to other parts of UK Construction, estimated average net debt has escalated at an alarming pace and we think at least one more profit warning could follow."

The deal dodger’s curse: Don’t mention Mouchel. Following a fifth profits warning, shares in Balfour Beatty fell 27% below the implied price at which the support services group refused to merge with Carillion. Mouchel, a motorways maintenance group turned down three takeover offers at successively lower prices in 2010 and 2011, to shareholders’ cost. Most mergers are really takeovers, because one of the partners is dominant. Most takeovers result in the purchaser transferring value from its own shareholders to investors in the target. Bidders generally overpay. Boards thus have little wriggle room to reject a cash bid pitched at a decent premium to the undisturbed price of the shares. The picture is fuzzier when the merger currency includes shares in the combined business. A preferential exchange ratio for investors in the weaker partner may be required to tilt the advantage towards its investors. AstraZeneca is a typical deal-dodger. Its stock is 20% below the last price offered by Pfizer before the U.S. group abandoned attempts to strike a deal with its U.K. rival. Similarly, shares in Michael Page are only 5.2% above two bids of about 400p from Switzerland’s Adecco in 2008. But the humbling of the Balfour board has been swift and salutary.

Balfour Beatty in fifth profit warning Executive chairman to go as shares fall 21%

US to become largest petroleum producer Output poised to exceed Saudi levels by this month or next

Knight Frank cashes in on property boom with 33pc jump in profits Property group urges clarity on housing and infrastructure policy, as it unveils significant jump in both profits and turnover Soaring property prices have helped estate agent Knight Frank to record annual profits, up a third to £136.6m. The estate agent and commercial property group said turnover was also up 12pc to £392.7m in the 12 months to March 31 - a period during which house prices in the UK jumped by 8pc. Alistair Elliott, group chairman and senior partner of Knight Frank, said the profits boost was delivered despite a “substantial” investment in the business; Knight Frank has recently opened offices in Ireland, Germany, South Africa, Taiwan and Malaysia and has been expanding its presence in the North American commercial property market. Mr Elliott said house prices in the UK have been kept high by a lack of new housing stock and urged clarity over housing and infrastructure policy as the political parties enter the general election race. However, he added that signs of increasing housing supply in some areas will “help normalise certain markets”. There have been a few early signs of a housing market correction, with homeowner borrowing falling between July and August.

Bostock takes up position with immediate effect * Ana Botin will stay on board as non-executive * Chairman says Bostock will bring continuity * Santander UK expected to float in next 2 years (Adds further details, background) By Matt Scuffham LONDON, Sept 29 (Reuters) - The British arm of Spanish bank Santander has appointed Nathan Bostock as chief executive, handing the former Royal Bank of Scotland finance director the task of overseeing a planned London listing. Bostock, 53, succeeds Ana Botin, who was appointed chairwoman of Madrid-based Santander Group following the death of her father Emilio Botin earlier this month. Bostock takes the UK CEO role with immediate effect. Bostock was appointed deputy chief executive of Santander UK last December with a view to being Ana Botin's successor, but took up the job only last month after serving a lengthy notice period at RBS. Botin, who will stay on the Santander UK board as a non-executive director, had been expected to oversee an initial public offering (IPO) of Santander UK shares in London in the next two years before handing over to Bostock. Santander UK, the biggest contributor to Santander's overall profit in the first half of 2014, is one of a number of British banks considering an IPO. Banks are responding to demand from investors who see UK retail banking stocks as offering exposure to Britain's economic recovery and expect banks to benefit from improved margins when interest rates rise. Lloyds on Friday sold a further 11.5 percent stake in TSB which it spun off earlier in the year, in a share placing that was covered several times over and attracted investors from the United States as well as Europe. Virgin Money is expected to announce its intention to float within days and challenger bank Aldermore is meeting investors ahead of a listing next month. OneSavings Bank listed in London earlier this year. A LIFE IN BANKING Bostock has been employed at RBS or Santander for much of his working life, but has switched roles several times. He joined RBS in 1992, before departing for Abbey National, which was later bought by Santander, in 2001. In 2009, he left Santander to rejoin RBS as head of restructuring and risk. Bostock didn't take up the role of Botin's deputy until August because RBS bosses, stunned by his decision to quit as finance director after just ten weeks in that role, forced him to serve out a long period of notice. Despite that, Santander's board has decided he is ready to become chief executive and the appointment prevents its UK business facing a prolonged period of boardroom upheaval. The bank is also searching for a successor to Chairman Terry Burns who is due to retire at the end of the year. Burns said Bostock's appointment would enable a "continuity of vision and strategy". "He brings a strong understanding not just of Santander UK, having worked for us as an executive director up until 2009, but

Royal Dutch Shell and BP are in the final running for a fiercely fought-over deal to operate some of the biggest onshore oil fields in the Persian Gulf, in what would be potentially a major triumph for British business in the region. Suhail Al-Mazrouei, minister of energy for the United Arab Emirates and a member of the Gulf state's powerful Supreme Petroleum Council, told The Telegraph that both British oil majors remained under consideration for the renewal of expired contracts to produce oil from Abu Dhabi's onshore fields. – The Daily Telegraph

Pimco: net of Gross: On Friday, as Mr Gross announced he would leave Pimco, which he founded in 1971, yields were at 2.5%. That is called having the wind at your back. But he did not just drift. He outperformed his benchmark by a percentage point a year. That difference, small though it may sound, compounds quite nicely, thank you. His departure has a Wagnerian flavour. He had feuded with his famous colleague Mohamed El-Erian; he has made some bad calls in recent years; assets have been leaving TRF ($71 billion worth in the past 16 months, leaving a mere $221 billion behind). There was noise about an SEC investigation of an exchange-traded fund he managed just this week. There are, however, substantive questions for the three companies that will be affected by the move: Allianz, Pimco, and Mr Gross’s new employer, Janus Capital. Allianz, the German insurer that has owned Pimco since 2000, should spin it off or sell it. This was true before Mr Gross left and, while the timing becomes trickier now, remains so. Having the companies together creates modest benefits, if any. The two are managed separately, and Allianz’s valuation does not reflect Pimco’s value – a classic conglomerate discount. Pimco faces a different problem: managing a very big pile of money at a time when most assets are priced for modest returns (the “new normal” as Mr Gross liked to put it). The crucial question is how aggressively Pimco’s new leaders shift out of bonds into other asset classes.