CBI upgrades UK Growth forecast16 Feb 2015 07:17
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has upgraded its growth prediction for 2015, citing the drop in oil price and lower inflation as the main reasons behind its decision.
It now expects the year to see growth of 2.7%, up from previous forecasts of 2.5%.
The decision to upgrade the outlook is also a reflection of the likelihood that the Monetary Policy Committee won't raise interest rates until early next year.
It is a case of "steady as she goes" the CBI said, with the economy expanding by 0.7% each quarter, aided by greater levels of job creation and a long-awaited pick-up in wage growth.
Katja Hall, the CBI's deputy director-general, said UK growth continued to "outshine its counterparts in Europe", but noted that although reduced oil prices means lower costs for businesses and consumers, the North Sea oil companies have taken a hit, which is harming jobs and investment in the industry.
"Now is not the time for complacency, but falling unemployment coupled with improving wage growth and rock bottom inflation should mean that people see more money in their pockets," she continued.
"But businesses are looking on anxiously as insecurity continues to troll the Eurozone and instability remains elsewhere."
Looking further ahead, gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to grow strongly in 2016, by 2.6% over the year as a whole, equal to growth of 0.6% a quarter.
The price of oil is expected to remain below $65 per barrel until the end of 2016. On the back of lower oil prices, consumer price inflation is expected to stay below 1% throughout most of 2015.
"While the risk of deflation is growing, the CBI does not see a sustained period of widespread falling prices as likely, with the downward pressure from the oil price effect unwinding over time," Hall said.
Business investment is also predicted to play a strong part in the economy's growth, increasing by 5.8% this year and by 6.5% in 2016.
The UK unemployment rate is expected to continue its downward trend in 2015 and into next year, levelling off at 5.2%, while wage growth is expected to reach 3.0% by the final quarter of next year.
Meanwhile, exports remain a weak spot, and while some improvement is expected, the net trade contribution to GDP growth will be "small at best".
This is forecast to weigh on the outlook for manufacturing output.
"While growth is expected to improve slowly, from 1.5% in the first quarter of 2015 to 1.8% by the end of 2016, it will remain underwhelming," Hall said.