FT12 Feb 2015 07:25
Arm: not an economy set of wheels: Arm is, in effect, an outsourced research department for makers of low power semiconductors. Most smartphones and tablets contain Arm intellectual property — it has an 85% market share in mobile. It makes money by selling licences and collecting royalties. On Wednesday, Arm reported £1.3 billion in revenues for 2014, beating expectations. Revenues and profits grew 16% and 13%, respectively. Is that enough to support the stock’s revved up valuation of 36 times forward earnings? The argument in favour is that Arm’s technology has become an industry standard — analogous to Qualcomm’s wireless technology, Microsoft’s operating systems, or Intel’s X-86 chips. Such businesses make very high, very steady profits for a very long time. The other worry is that Arm’s technology ceases to be the industry standard. Intel is challenging Arm in mobile, for example. So far, Intel — despite, in effect, unlimited funds — has failed. In 2014 Intel’s mobile segment had $202 million in revenue and $4.2 billion in losses. If Intel soldiers on despite this, it could squeeze Arm’s revenues but — if the example of Qualcomm, Microsoft, and Intel are any indication — will not displace it. Arm is looking to new markets such as servers. These markets will be tough, making the mobile business look all the more expensive. But it shows no sign of slowing down. Vroom, vroom.