JMAT22 Nov 2012 07:44
Tempus in The Times says the warning from Johnson Matthey that hit the market yesterday was not quite as drastic as those that have afflicted other global industrial producers this autumn, but the burden was much the same. The outlook for the global economy, and for key sectors such as American trucks and new investment in Chinese industry, is, at best, uncertain.
In addition, about half the group by revenues is involved in the refining and distribution of precious metals, such as platinum and palladium. While plainly these feed into the group’s catalytic convertors and other products that go into vehicles and industrial processes, performance here is driven by the background price of such metals, as well as demand from producers of jewellery and the like. This side has been hit by lower prices, with platinum off 16% in the first half to the end of September.
The main concern for the market was that the outcome for the second half of the year, which traditionally is about 10% stronger in profit terms, will be little-changed on the first half. Pre-tax profits will come in, therefore, 10% or so lower this year, at perhaps £385m. This puts the shares, off 135p at £21.90, on about 14 times’ earnings, after a decent run over the past year helped by the special dividend. At that level, and with no prospect of an immediate recurrence of that special payment, it is hard to see any reason for a short-term outperformance.