ESSR26 Nov 2012 07:45
Business Outlook
Essar Energy continues to position itself to capitalise on India's growing energy demand .
Given demand growth for refined fuels, India is expected to have a shortfall of refining capacity by around FY2015-16, particularly in diesel, where we expect demand growth to continue at around 7-8% annually. Across Asia and Africa, demand for diesel is expected to continue to grow strongly. We believe that this, together with some delays to project execution and the closure of older, lower complexity and smaller refineries, implies a positive outlook for margins at the Vadinar refinery, given its scale and configuration post-expansion, with around 80% of output now comprising higher value middle and light distillates, principally diesel and jet fuel.
In the UK, we expect the Stanlow refinery to be increasingly advantaged as initiatives to improve margins begin to be delivered. These initiatives are in addition to Stanlow's existing advantages from its higher complexity and bias towards production of middle distillates such as diesel and jet fuel, both of which are structurally short in the UK and Europe. We continue to expect the closure of a number of smaller, less complex refineries in the region.
In power there remains a major shortage of power generation in India relative to demand, with peak deficits running at more than 10% of demand, according to India's Economic Survey, published in March 2012. These shortages are expected to increase over the next 3-5 years as supply continues to lag demand. Around one third of the Indian population still has no access to electricity, according to the 2011 national census. India is now targeting 85,000MW of new generation capacity to be built during its 12th Economic Plan running from 2012-17, with the objective of delivering GDP growth rates of around 9% per annum over the plan period.
Given the difficulty in obtaining the necessary consents and regulatory clearances to build power projects, develop sources of coal to fuel them and put in place the necessary funding, a clear advantage will exist for those such as Essar Energy who already have significant assets in place.