Member Info for mulledwine

Panmure Gordon maintained its "buy" recommendation and 487p target price for housebuilder Persimmon (PSN). The group, in the broker's view, has a capable management team and good geographic coverage. Regardless of market conditions, Panmure believes that the business can benefit from its good-quality, long-landbank and its more aggressive stance on write downs taken to date versus its peer group. Indeed, the broker concluded, this should allow the firm to demonstrate above-average medium-term Net Asset Value growth.

WSP hit by UK spending cutbacks Date: Monday 28 Feb 2011 LONDON (ShareCast) - Sales and profits fell last year at civil engineering consultant WSP. Revenue dropped 2% to £707m while operating profit, before exceptional items, reduced to £38m from £41.3m. Pre-tax profits fell to £19.2m from £25.4m. WSP’s strongest region last year was Northern Europe, especially Sweden. In the UK, there was some modest recovery in the Property sector although Transport & Infrastructure saw a significant decline reflecting the impact of the government’s spending review and the conclusion of the Area 12 Highways Agency contract. WSP anticipates trading patterns will be broadly maintained in 2011, with the private sector trading environment improving, albeit slowly. The dividend for the year is held at 15p.

Northland Capital commented on WSP Group (WSH), the engineering and management consultant. The broker believes that the outlook for the current year suggests top line growth will be marginal, at best, with the property sector recovering only slowly and UK public spending remaining subdued on the back of last year's comprehensive spending review. What's more, despite the good underlying demand experienced on the back of public sector spending in Sweden, Northland added, the group has experienced increased price competition resulting in some margin pressure

Xanthamgum - What the hell do any of us know! - however I do feel there is still much potential here ...I think your wait and see plan may well bear fruit.

Evolution Securities retained its "add" recommendation for Salamander Energy (SMDR) with an increased target price of 335p, up from 300p. The broker notes the group's 38% jump in 2P reserves estimate at the Bualuang oil field and, subsequently, now sees output at the field rising from 8,200 barrels of oil per day (bopd) to 15,000 bopd in 2013. Importantly, Evolution added, the company is un-hedged and owns 100% of the field so the current high oil price should be feeding through to the business's cash line.

Some additional exposure from Halifax Norseman Gold lost A$803,000 in the six months to December compared with a $610,000 profit the year before as the firm focused on developing two new mines. But the company has now shifted from a development focus to production in the new year “with the emphasis on returning the operations to profitability in the June quarter, as production ramps to maximum mill capacity”. It produced 23,391 ounces of gold last year, but predicts a “significant” increase from the extensive capital investment program carried out during the past 18 months

Medusa Mining* (MML LN) 454p mkt cap £851m - Audited interims highlight record results Corporate - BUY - TP - 549p (to be reviewed) Medusa's audited interims report a half year net profit post tax of US$58.1m up 105% yoy, which implies that the company is running ahead of our forecasts for full year post tax profit of US$92.4m. Gold produced in the period stood at 51,127oz at a cash cost of US$186/oz. Sales totaled 48,883oz that led to revenue of US$78.3m having sold the gold at an average price of US$1,291/oz. EBITDA in the period stood at US$63.3m. EPS on a weighted average basis was US$0.31/share. The company is debt free and at the end of December had gold and cash equivalents of US$87.2m. Medusa is dividend paying and the board has approved an interim 5c/share dividend to be paid on 23rd March. Going forwards the company envisages 25,000oz per quarter at a cash cost of US$190/oz until the financial year end leading to full year production of 102,000oz. After that we expect incremental expansion to 125,000ozpa from next year using the current plant before a facility is constructed to take output to 200,000ozpa. The new plant is expected to cost US$80m and can already be paid for from cash reserves. Construction is expected to start in Q4, to start production in Q1 2013, this is ahead of our modelled start up in Q3 2013. The permitting process has already started and discussions are underway with engineering design and construction groups. Development at the mine continues with more veins being identified and infrastructure being put into place to support the longer term ramp up in production. We look forward to exploration results around Co-O that we expect will demonstrate a larger foot print and potential resource base to support the growing production profile. Valuation: We value Medusa at Medusa to 549p/share although in light of these results and firmer plans on the expansion we will be reviewing our numbers and expect an upgrade. Our gold price assumption uses an average of 1,339/oz for the remainder of this financial year (ends in June) then US$1500/oz next year falling to US$1,000/oz by 2016. We have assumed that the expansion to 200,000ozpa takes place in 2014 with production at 125,000oz next year and the following year (now running ahead of this). We've assumed cash costs of US$210/oz for the expanded operation and capital cost of US$86m for the expansion, as well as sustaining capital at the mine of US$8mpa and US$2mpa on plant and equipment. As Medusa is an established dividend paying gold producer we have applied a 75% premium to the NPV of the Co-O mine (8% discount rate), we would look to raise this premium as details on the expansion plans firm up. To add to the value of Co-O we have also included US$52m for exploration (includes 650,000oz Bananghilig resource), year end cash and bullion holdings (valued at today's gold price) that total US$43m. Cash generation from Co-O should be more t

Strong sales pipeline for Craneware Date: Monday 28 Feb 2011 LONDON (ShareCast) - Scotland-based Craneware, which provides revenue assessing software to US hospitals, continues its impressive growth in the six months to December 2010. AIM-quoted Craneware increased its rate of growth in the first half and continued to generate cash. Revenues grew by one-quarter to $16.6m with pre-tax profit 31% higher at $4.3m. Newer products are generating the majority of revenues. Net cash was $31.2m at the end of 2010. Craneware paid an initial $15m for ClaimTrust, which supplies audit and revenue recovery software. The maximum consideration could be $19.5m. More than two-thirds of ClaimTrust’s $8.5m of annual revenues are recurring. There is still uncertainty about the US healthcare sector but this does not seem to be hampering Craneware. Hospitals still want to make sure that they are claiming all the revenue that they are entitled to and Craneware says that its sales pipeline has never been stronger. There is still plenty of scope for cross-selling to a customer base of 1,500 hospitals. Fewer than two-fifths of customers take two or more software products. The revenue under contract is $87.9m, which stretches out over 10 years. That figure is 22% higher than 12 months ago and does not include any contribution from ClaimTrust. Craneware is rebasing its dividend payments. It paid a total of 8p a share in 2009-10. The latest interim has been cut from 4.7p a share to 4p a share but the total dividend for 2010-11 will be higher. House broker Peel Hunt forecasts a dividend of 8.8p a share for 2010-11. Peel Hunt forecasts a rise in full year profit from $7.4m to $9.6m.

Caledon awaits Chinese approval for bidder Date: Monday 28 Feb 2011 LONDON (ShareCast) - Coal miner Caledon Resources says that its Chinese bidder has still not received government approval. In November, Guangdong Rising Asset Management (GRAM) offered 112p cash per share, which valued the company at £252m. GRAM is one of the largest state-owned enterprises in China and it wants to acquire coal assets to satisfy demand in China. GRAM remains “confident the approval process is in its final stages”. A non-solicitation agreement ended at the end of 2010 and was extended until 28 February. Caledon could not consider any other bid unless it was at least 10% higher than GRAM’s, which had five business days to respond with a higher offer. AIM-quoted and ASX-listed Caledon does not indicate that this agreement has been extended. Caledon has released its 2010 results, which show a return to gross profit and a pre-tax loss of A$17.1m. Revenue grew from A$67.8m to $93m as Caledon sold more coal and the sale price improved from A$141/tonne to A$173.7/tonne. Caledon’s Cook mine recommenced production in mid-January following the Queensland floods. Feasibility work continues at the Minyango project. AIM-quoted Polo Resources owns just over 62m shares in Caledon, worth £69.5m at the bid price, which is 55% of Polo’s market value.

Bad weather hits Goals Soccer profits Date: Monday 28 Feb 2011 LONDON (ShareCast) - The extreme weather that hit much of Britain towards the end of last year hurt 5-a-side football pitch operator Goals Soccer’s profits. Pre-tax profits in the year to 31 December fell by 14% from last year to £7.6m, even as sales climbed by 6% to £27.8m. Like-for-like sales, excluding the impact of new openings, were down by 4%, but would have climbed by 1% but for the snow, Goals, which has opened eight new centres over the past eight months, said. The bad weather hit profits by £1.7m during the year. Meanwhile, trading has started well so far in 2011, with total sales up by 15% and like for sales up by 5% for the first 55 weeks of the year, albeit against a snow-affected period last year. “During the year we have taken further strides to strengthen our position as the premier five-a-side soccer operator in the UK,” managing director Keith Rogers said.

Hiscox weathering the storms Date: Monday 28 Feb 2011 LONDON (ShareCast) - Bermuda-based specialist insurer Hiscox paid out £165m in claims relating to catastrophes last year, but signalled its confidence in the future with a 10% hike in the dividend. Gross written premiums were little changed at £1,433m in 2010 from £1,435m in 2009, while profit before tax fell to £211.4m from £320.6m the year before. “Mother Nature has well and truly tested us this year and a pre-tax profit of £211.4m is further strong evidence of the resilience of our business," claimed company chairman, Robert Hiscox. “It seems an immutable rule of insurance that a big loss will hit the area of weakest rates, and this year has proved the rule. We were underweight in Chile, New Zealand and Australia, had declined a significant insured in the oil-spill and had pruned our UK household book, as our view was that each area was under-rated for just the catastrophes which have occurred,” Hiscox added. The London Market business was the powerhouse of the group, claimed chief executive officer Bronek Masojada. “It delivered a pre-tax profit of £121.4m (2009: £179.9m). This result, though lower than 2010, was helped by some canny underwriting decisions, particularly around Deepwater Horizon and the Chilean earthquake. In each case disciplined underwriting, with a focus on margin over volume, led us to incur claims that were substantially below the market average,” Masojada said. A by-product of the decision not to chase volume was reduced premium income of £572.7m, down from £663.0m in 2009, and the company said this trend will continue in 2011. “We will allow our big-ticket businesses in Bermuda and London to shrink as they focus on margin over volume, while at the same time we expect our specialist retail businesses to grow their revenue and profits,” Masojada said. The investment portfolio, excluding derivatives, returned £98.8m, giving a yield of 3.6% on an average portfolio value over 2010 of £2,717.5m. The combined operating ratio - the total of claim costs, commission and expenses as a percentage of premiums – deteriorated to 89.3% from 86.0% in 2009. Net asset value per share improved to 332.7p from 299.2p at the end of 2009. The full year dividend has been increased to 16.5p from 15.0p.

Kingspan nervy over inflation Date: Monday 28 Feb 2011 LONDON (ShareCast) - Building insulation specialist Kingspan saw its first year-on-year sales growth since 2007 last year, but is worried about inflation. “All regions are likely to confront industry-wide cost inflation in 2011 which must be passed through to end markets,“ it said. Turnover in 2010 rose 6% to €1.19bn from €1.13bn, with pre-tax profits coming in at €55.7m against €56.7m. Operating profits rose to €67.4m from €62.7m. Volumes of Insulated Panels were up by 19% in the second half over the first six months and by 5% over the comparable period last year. “Low rise commercial construction in the UK can be expected to be flat in 2011, as can the housing sector. The backdrop is likely to be similar in North America, however Germany and Central Europe should show modest growth, with Australia likely to remain strong. Refurbishment across many markets could reasonably be expected to grow, “ Kingspan said The dividend for the year is 10c (nil).

Sagentia beats expectations but warns on demand Date: Monday 28 Feb 2011 LONDON (ShareCast) - Sagentia’s profits for the year to 31 December beat expectations, but the technology and product development consultant sounded a cautious note on future trading, saying demand is unpredictable. The company moved to a pre-tax profit of £2.2m against a loss of £3.5m the previous year, even as revenues fell to £20.8m from £23.4m. Revenue for 2009 included £6.3m from a project that was spun out of the group. “As a project-based consultancy, forward visibility is typically limited and, although the group benefits from sector and geographical diversification, future demand is not predictable,” the company said. “The board therefore remains prudent in managing the business.”

Record profits for New Britain Palm Oil Date: Monday 28 Feb 2011 LONDON (ShareCast) - Higher prices in the second half of the year and a contribution from recent acquisition Kula Palm Oil drove revenue growth last year at New Britain Palm Oil. The industrial producer of palm oil saw 2010 revenue increase by 45% to $470.5m from $323.8m the year before, as oil shipments rose 26% from a year earlier to a record 455,122 tonnes. Underlying profit before tax, excluding the effect of revaluing its plantations, jumped 54% to $131.2m from $85.3m in 2009. Gross margin, inclusive of net gains arising on agricultural products, rose to 52% from 50% in 2009, primarily reflecting higher crude palm oil prices in 2010, At the end of the reporting period the group had cash holdings of $10.2m and borrowings of $281.7m, with the rise in borrowing from $56.8m in 2009 largely reflecting the April purchase of Kula Palm Oil. The group has agreed a new five year facility with an Asia-focused bank that will kick in from March 2011, after which the company expects to resume the payment of dividends. “The robust fundamentals of the industry, together with the increasing demand for the highest quality, traceable and certified sustainable palm oil rather than a certificate based trading system provide confidence in a strong future for the group,” claimed Antonio Monteiro De Castro, chairman of New Britain Palm Oil.

Nice results. Downside for the time being is the borrowings total.

Antonio Monteiro De Castro, Chairman of New Britain Palm Oil Limited, commented: "In 2010, the Group has continued to expand rapidly and invest in the business's unique capacity to bring sustainable traceable palm oil to the European market. Not only did we complete a transformational acquisition of Kula Palm Oil adding a further 26,000 hectares of oil palm estates in Papua New Guinea but we also successfully commissioned our first European refinery based in Liverpool. The Board is pleased to note that the Group has also posted its highest ever profit on the back of record production and rising oil prices. Production of crude palm oil rose by 32.5% to a record 444,421 tonnes, with the new acquisition contributing some 104,959 tonnes of crude palm oil since the end of April. Overall, the Group processed 1.98 million tonnes of oil palm fruit in 2010, representing a 34.7% increment over 2009. The Board is pleased with the continued expansion and strengthening of New Britain Palm Oil Limited's operations and NBPOL remains well positioned to deliver further profitable growth. The robust fundamentals of the industry, together with the increasing demand for the highest quality, traceable and certified sustainable palm oil rather than a certificate based trading system provide confidence in a strong future for the Group."

Operational Highlights - A record 1.98 million tonnes of fruit processed, including 0.48 million tonnes from KPOL (2009: 1.47 million tonnes), and 479,000 tonnes (2009: 366,000 tonnes), in aggregate, of crude palm oil ("CPO") and palm kernel oil ("PKO") produced, including 107,000 tonnes from KPOL. CPO production was 32.5% higher than the preceding year and palm product extraction rates reduced slightly to 27.5% from 27.8% in 2009 - Average CPO selling price achieved by NBPOL during the year was USD 850/tonne (2009: USD 710/tonne). As at the year end, the Group had made "forward sales" of CPO of approximately 26% of its 2011 production, 146,000 tonnes at an average price of USD 919/tonne - As at 15 February 2011, the forward sales of the Group were approximately 178,000 tonnes at an average price of USD 1,063/tonne - CPO prices for 2010 traded in quite a broad range of between USD 760 to 1,225/tonne, and 2011 started at above USD 1,250/tonne - The acquisition at the end of April 2010 of Kula Palm Oil Limited (previously CTP (PNG) Limited) has added a further 26,000 hectares of oil palm estates as well as over 16,000 hectares of smallholders. These results reflect the benefits of eight months of ownership with a contribution of USD 29.8 million to profit before tax excluding the impact of IAS 41 - The successful commissioning in May 2010 of our first vegetable oil refinery based in Liverpool has exceeded all of our expectations, delivering high grade sustainable and traceable oil in a segregated supply chain to a rapidly growing customer base in the United Kingdom and Continental Europe - Construction of the Group's newest oil mill in West New Britain is well advanced, and this facility, along with the dedicated fractionation plant for Ferrero Rocher and the two methane capture plants will be commissioned in 2011

Financial Highlights - Revenue increased 45% to USD 470.5 million (2009: USD 323.8 million) due to higher prices for palm oil in 2010 particularly in the second half of the year, and the contribution from the acquisition of Kula Palm Oil Limited ("KPOL") completed at the end of April - Profit before tax increased 54% to USD 131.2 million* (2009: USD 85.3 million*) excluding the effect of revaluing biological assets under IAS 41 - Earnings Per Share attributable to ordinary shareholders, excluding the impact of IAS 41, increased 44% to US 60.2* cents (2009: US 41.8* cents) - EBITDA, excluding the impact of IAS 41, increased 57% to USD 179.4 million (2009: USD 114.2 million) - Gross margin inclusive of net gains arising on agricultural products of 52% (2009: 50%) primarily reflecting higher CPO prices in 2010 compared to 2009 - A record year for oil shipments up 26% to 455,122 tonnes (2009: 362,254 tonnes) - The Group has cash holdings at the end of 2010 of USD 10.2 million (and bank overdrafts of USD 7.5 million) with a further USD 62.2 million in trade oil debtors which has subsequently been received, while borrowings have increased to USD 281.7 million (2009: USD 56.8 million), primarily as a consequence of the twelve month USD 200 million facility to fund the acquisition of KPOL, and short term working capital of USD 25.1 million of which USD 11 million has subsequently been repaid - Refinancing terms for a USD 240 million five year facility have been mandated with a major Asia focused bank with expected drawdown in March 2011 - Following the refinancing, the Board expects to resume the payment of dividends, with an interim dividend for 2011 to be payable in October, the details of which will be announced in our 2011 interim results

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201102280700159265B

.......................................... Conclusion PDX has demonstrated considerable progress over the past year, under the capable leadership of our CEO Roel Pieper. He has created a high performing team capable of delivering world class value. 2011 is a pivotal year for the Company as we start to see new revenue streams coming on line. Much speculation has been made about the ability of the business to deliver to customer expectations, but the Company is very confident that the technology, the team and the strategy are in place that can deliver genuinely valuable solutions to PDX's clients and strong returns for shareholders."