Member Info for Muck165

The ECDC put out an mpox risk assessment yesterday. Doesn’t look like they expect things to be too bad.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/mpox-risk-assessment-monkeypox-virus-africa-august-2024.pdf

The Boots link is a supposition, but not a wholly unreasonable one I think when you look at everything in the round.

Its clear from the Crest Medical posts that the 3 tests we're supplying to Boots is just the start of Boots self testing own brand build out, and its reasonable to think that if they want more then we'll supply them through Crest. The RNS comment about retaining rights to offer the STI tests as own brand to retailers just stood out because they made a point of it!. If they negotiated the right you'd have to think it is the intention, and Boots is the most obvious reason.

Mpox is an interesting one for us I think. On the one hand it could present opportunity or momentum plays like we saw in Covid - NYCT are seeing it today. Personally I think its nowhere near the same as C19 and, of course, I can't see we have any link with Mpox and there literally loads of tests and assays already out there ready to go.

On the other hand, if MPOX did become a problem then the best way to protect yourself would be to practice safe sex. That would also reduce other STI infection rates (presumably), and therefore the potential STI testing market.

Alongside a whole host of PCR tests/assays. The vast majority of the MRHA registered ones are Chinese!

There’s a few mpox LFTs out there already, antigen and antibody, CE marked and MRHA registered.

Just because ABDX hasn’t said anything about an mpox test doesn’t mean we don’t have one in the pipe. The fifth FOFH one could be, for example, although I’d be surprised.

Not as far as I’m aware SS.

And one last hope, which is that the 5th test is for Chlamydia. From everything I've read, that is the one clinicians are crying out for, at least in the States.

Just a few more things

The March RNS said we would continue to provide CDMO services to FOFH "throughout H2 FY 2024", ie until 30/6/2024. I'm assuming that this allowed time for scale up into manufacturing of at least the 4 tests following design freeze in March. I don't know if we are continuing to provide CDMO services now, or whether we are just waiting for approval, launch and manufacturing.

We announced the Boots deal re the Vit D and Iron tests at almost exactly the same time as the design freeze. I know MHC pitched for this deal (they were unhappy they didn't get it according to their last investor meet presentation!), and the indication is that Boots chose us because ultimately they wanted to own brand Salistick. But I do wonder if the potential for Boots to get hold of these FOFH STI tests was also part of their motivation to give us the business. Its worth noting again here that the design freeze RNS made special mention that we would have with "rights to provide these products to retailers in own brand format."

Worth noting again that consulting advisers to Bioadvancce, the VC backer of Senzo, reacted to ABDX posts about the STI tests.

My "wishful" thinking here is that the FOFH tests are based on the Senzo ALF platform, will therefore be much better than what's currently out there, will be launched into a ripe market, with ABDX have exclusive manufacturing, and potentially a product move into Boots under their own brand as they expand their home testing range.

Hi Lucksin

My understanding, from the 25/3/23 design freeze RNS and my own investigations, is that;

- By the time of the RNS we had been providing services to Devyn/FOFH for 12 months, ie since March 2022. Interestingly, we announced the Senzo collaboration agreement in March 2022. Its one reason I've wondered if the two are linked.

- FOFH was a wholly owned subsid of Devyn. The RNS says we are taking a 23% stake. Absent any other info, you have to still assume Devyn still owns the rest.

- The RNS says that all IP was transferred from Devyn to FOFH when it was incorporated.

- I can only say that ABDX were to invest up to £500k to acquire up to 23% stock by way of a service for equity agreement. In other words, we take our service fees in stock rather than cash. I don't know whether the £500k includes fees due as well as expected future fees, but I suspect its both.

- I suspect the "invest over time" bit simply reflects that fact that we will only be due fees once we have hit certain service trigger payments, and so we take those fees as stock at each trigger event rather than in one go.

- As for the timeline, as far as I can tell Devyn Inc was incorporated in Florida - I don't know exactly when, but it was a definitely a Yannick Namia company. In September 2022 it converted to an LLC, to become Devyn LLC. The latest filings for it (2024) continue to be made by Yannick Namia. Interestingly, September 2022 was also when Hand/Yates made significant purchases of ABDX stock.

- FOFH was incorporated in Delaware on 9/8/2023, closely followed the same month by the ABDX RNS telling us that the concert party arrangements were being amended to give Directors an opportunity to buy.

Just for info, but I see our Nina Garret is co hosting a webinar in October about “The rapid rise in molecular diagnostics”.

https://www.technologynetworks.com/tn/webinars/lateral-flow-assays-the-rapid-rise-in-molecular-diagnostics-389534

Two things of note here…

- Nina has been presenting on this subject a few times now. Would seem very odd if we didn’t include some molecular tests in our pipe.

- Her co-presenter is Klaus from Cytiva. So, we are now very much mixing with the industry heavyweights.

FOFH is driving me nuts Lucksin - I just can’t find anything about them except their incorporation records.

But I remain hopeful, for a variety of reasons, that they have something to do with Senzo.

We have global manufacturing rights with FOFH - have a read of this Dec 2023 Senzo piece and then just imagine the scale of the opportunity we’d have with a sensitive suite of STI tests. FOFH would be worth far more than £2m!!

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/63174674e5302f1a8f9e9dbc/t/659ae1c8fc1f77528ed44d4b/1704649165514/FDX+-+STI%28s%29.pdf

It is the kind of innovation to merit announcement at a major summit.

I'm confident too Lucksin. A spark is all we need....

For me trying to understand motives behind actions, or puzzling through oddities, can be just as illuminating as plain cold facts, even if it can mean drawing the wrong conclusions sometimes.

Take FOFH for example. Pre-revenue. No web presence (even now). No funding history. No marketing history. No operating history. No leadership history/experience. No regulatory product approvals. No apparent scientific backing or expertise. No employees (it would seem).

Doesn't seem too exciting as a prospect, apart from the market its targeting and its US location.

But Yates chose to sacrifice £500k of revenue (over 12.5% of total prior year revenue at the time), in times where he was laser focussed on cashflow breakeven, to buy a 23% holding. That valued FOFH at over £2m, which is just about a sixth of our current MCAP! To put this in some context, we paid £15k for 25% of EcoFlo, and consider the potential that has!

That's a real oddity and for me, there has just got to be something special about FOFH. I think either the products we've developed are using innovative and disruptive tech (perhaps Senzo ALF), or FOFH has another exciting shareholding partner that we know nothing about.

But then really, right now, that's just supposition.

,

The only info I can find about the initial Association Agreement are in the RNS's from

30/8/2017

13/9/2017

18/10/2017

1/3/2018

30/5/2018

16/10/2018

All can be accessed here https://www.vastplc.com/news/

My basic takeaways are

It took from 30/8/2017 until 16/10/2018 for the agreement to be negotiated and signed. Personally I would expect it to take a lot less time on extension, particularly if its to be extended on the same terms as today's RNS suggests.

We had to pay $1.6m as part of the process. No idea if there is likely to be an equivalent payment on extension, or any payment at all.

IN September 2017 the RNS said they expected the agreement to complete that month. Ultimately it was a year later.

The Ministry of Economy, being the owner of Baita SA, needed to approve the agreement. Ultimately that was what took all the time between October 2017 and May 2018 when the agreement was finally reached.

Forgive me, but our licence has NOT been extended.....yet.

The notion of a bumper announcement at the Summit might well be wishful thinking Lucksin although, as I say, I do remain hopeful!

But some simple facts remain.

Edwin set his business up in 2008, and so has nurtured it for 16 years. That's not something you let go of lightly.

Between 2019 and 2023 his employee count grew from 8 to 39

Between 2022 and 2023 his revenue grew 45% to £2.7m, and his his EBITDA (£393k) and net assets (£493k) nearly doubled.

He's 51.

This was not a struggling business - it was growing and fast. Not surprising given Covid/Brexit.. But there was every reason to think it would continue to grow given the proliferation of new developers, the expected growth in the IVD market, and massive changes in the regulatory environment. Yet he chose to sell......to us..........now........for total consideration (including performance uncertain performance related) of just over 1x 2023 revenue (2024 will I expect be higher)........and mostly for ABDX paper at about a 10% discount.

Equally, IVDeology sold to us in an equally great market for them at I suspect c1x turnover, for 100% ABDX paper with no discount. whatsoever.

For me, the fact these owners sold their "babies" to us in the way they have, and at the price they got, represents the single biggest vote of confidence in the future of ABDX. And believe me, they will have a far better understanding of ABDX prospects then I or anyone else on here can glean!

And the market would seem to agree given that we managed to raise c40% of our MCAP at a next to nothing discount. in these markets.

Just for info, but in my reading I came across this article. It pretty much encapsulates why I’m invested in ABDX. A particularly interesting thing I’d never thought of is that in the states there is an insurance deductible/excess, which means people are more likely to try cheaper at home solutions before incurring medical costs. Same really, I suppose for any personal insurance based system.

https://www.mpo-mag.com/issues/2024-05-01/view_features/spot-check-a-discussion-of-the-in-vitro-diagnostics-market/

Don’t know why that all came out lower case!

evening gubbie. we will get a chance to participate in the retail offer, but details about that won’t be made available until after admission of the consideration shares, which will be on 19/8. the full timetable is near the end of the acquisition/placing rns.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/abdx/proposed-acquisition-and-placing-notice-of-gm/16584839

so, by that time both the placing shares and consideration shares will have hit the market.

on the face of it that retail offer doesn’t look hugely exciting at 9.75p and it does seem unlikely, at least to me, that they’ll raise the £500k limit given the current bid/ask prices. but then surely yates would have known that was likely to be the case, so i’ve been thinking about;

1. why ivdeology sold to us for 100% paper at prevailing market prices.

2. why edwin lindsay, at 51, sold his expanding and successful business to us for an initial consideration at nearly 50% paper, and at a moderate discount to sp. he didn’t need to sell and it’s clear to me, given his connections, he would have had choices - so why us…?

3. why we were able to raise at such a low discount given current capital markets

4. the fact that we are, for the first time i’m aware of, a primary sponsor of a heavyweight us centric conference, where our mark jones is speaking about innovation, that conference taking place just as all placing and consideration shares have hit the market, but before the retail offer.

a lot of this might be explained if ivdeology, edwin, and the capital markets, believed a major announcement was forthcoming at the summit. perhaps wishful thinking, but if there were such an announcement that ballooned the sp then i suspect uptake of the retail offer would be much more significant!

probably ******, but i am quietly hoping. first stop will be weds to see any indication at all about who participated in the raise.

For info, it would seem that CS and QCS International are partnering to deliver specialised training.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/edwin-lindsay-5a1980_iso13485-audits-medicaldevices-activity-7228392100352921600-wAGE?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

Another string to the bow...

OK - the votes passed resoundingly and so we can expect the placing shares to hit the market Weds.

If the Directors participated, or any II's have taken a 3% + position, would I be right in thinking any PDMR/TR1 notifications would be made first thing the same day?