Member Info for Muck165

Again, in the interests of sharing (and for those who haven’t seen it before), this was a post from a quality management consultant Senzo enagaged, and originally posted very late in December last year. The interesting bit reads;

“ For my second client, I have started working in February of this year with Senzo Health Limited. They have developed a revolutionary lateral flow test which delivers the same accuracy as laboratory-based PCR, with results available within 10 minutes, at a fraction of the cost.

I revitalized their QMS Documentation writing a number of new procedures and restarted all of their quality activities such as audits, supplier management, purchasing controls, production and management reviews. Staff have been trained in all QMS aspects which helped to establish a great quality culture (probably the best I have worked in) from senior management to junior staff. Along the way we established a detailed project plan (from design to delivery). Last month I successfully managed an ISO13485 Audit with no non-conformances being issued.

I am now focused on writing/preparing the protocols for analytical and independent third party trials that will commence shortly after the design freeze. If all goes well we shall be bringing our innovative product market next year. This means that we can bring testing for a range of new infections and diseases out of the laboratory and closer to the patient and by simplifying diagnostics and bringing accurate and real-time testing to the patient, we can save money, save resources and save lives.”

Remember, 2.5 months after this ABDX declared design freeze on 4 FOFH tests.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/lester-gleeson-83b3b7105_hi-all-it-has-been-over-a-year-since-i-activity-7135965222640472064-QzUr?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

ABDX sent me the following reply to my e-mail over the weekend.

"Dear xxxxxxx

Many thanks you for the message.

To confirm, we will put Mark’s presentation on the website in August.

Best wishes."

Short and sweet...

And in the interests of sharing, here’s just another little observation.

Devyn Inc, the parent of FOFH, was incorporated in Delaware on 19/8/2019.

Senzo Inc was incorporated in Delaware just 2 days later, on 21/8/2019.

Co-incidence, or could the two have some other relationship and been working together all this time? Again, could easily be seeing something where nothing exists.

Just a little observation, but ABDX put out another post about the summit yesterday. It’s had limited reaction so far (10), 7 of which are ABDX staff.

But 2 of the other 3 were Yannick Namia (FOFH, who hardly ever reacts to anything), and Catherine Fink (who advises the VC backer of Senzo (Bioadvance)).

I’ve suggested before that there must be something special in FOFH for us to invest £500k for just 23%, particularly given it has no apparent mgmt expertise, operating history or web presence, and I do really wonder, given these reactions and because we know from Senzo that they’ve been working on STI tests, if the FOFH tests are based on the Senzo platform.

They would certainly represent innovation, and be a prime subject for a talk about on that subject at the “Next Generation Dx Summit”

Or I could just be overthinking things!

Or a jam factory.

For info, the 13.40 - 14.10 slot has now been filled, and has nothing to do with us.

I e-mailed ABDX over the weekend to see if we poor shareholders would be given access to a copy of Mark's presentation so that we, at least, could know what innovations he will be talking about.

I would say this though - we entered into a collaboration agreement with Senzz in March 2023, 16 months ago. Their CEO continues to react to our Linkedin posts.

So I'd be amazed if none of the products we're developing aren't using the Senzo ALF platform.

Thought I'd stick these Senzo articles from March and April up for people to read as they wish. They're both pretty short and do a neat job of summarising why the LFT market offers such great opportunity.

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/63174674e5302f1a8f9e9dbc/t/65eeef8535b2f17ed2f49b51/1710157709821/RTI+Multiplex.pdf

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/63174674e5302f1a8f9e9dbc/t/6627c0901e77046c60ed847e/1713881241735/FUTURE+DX+A.S.S.U.R.E.D..pdf

In essence they highlight why better diagnostic solutions are necessary in a society facing centralised health care issues, and focus on the fact that if LFT sensitivity can be improved then it would become the perfect test. Affordable. Sensitive,. Specific. User Friendly. Rapid and Robust. Equipment Free. Deliverable. ASSURED.

Of course, Senzo believe their ALF platform achieves this, claiming its as sensitive as PCR.

We haven't heard much from them recently although their employee count is growing, they got more funding from BARDA in October last year, were part of RADx, and are a Medtech Innovator Alumni. Basically, they are not a fly by night enterprise and have attracted backing from highly recognised players.

Personally I think something is happening with them and, given the repeated references they make to the rise in STI's, it could relate to FOFH. Equally, it might not!

Nice to have you join in BD, and well done on GDR today.

Unlikely given they can’t raise below 0.1p

Will be difficult if not impossible to raise again without some good news. Everything hangs on the Swiss now.

I reckon we have a max of 2 more months without that funding.

Oh, and of course, those other companies you mention were/are developing projects themselves, with their own capital. That involves greatly enhanced risk, and far higher prospects of debt requirement and/or highly dilutive raises. You’ve seen it with all three, repeatedly.

That’s not to say those projects aren’t exciting. They’re just risky.

True, if they succeed then rewards might be spectacular.

We have a different model. Lots of diverse projects we take NO capital risk in developing, but from which we take a slice of reward.

And as for the other stocks you mention, think of the risk you faced. All were/are highly focussed on very few projects. Here we have a hugely diverse customer and application base. We have fingers in very many pies, and a developer customer all desperate to successfully commercialise given the years of cost and risk they’ve taken on.

Morning BD. You’ll forgive me but I’m not going to say what I own here other than to say it’s not nearly as much as I’d like, and is likely a lot less than you’d think given my posting record! Although on that score the 2750 posts have in fact been spread across a variety of stocks, with ABDX being a focus over the last year or so.

I enjoy researching companies and just share what I learn. People can take it or leave it as they wish. I spend an inordinate amount of time on ABDX because it’s a stock I strongly believe in, but I’m very aware I may have confirmation bias and that’s why I’d love to hear any reasonable arguments against it. So far few have been raised.

As for my price predictions, I can say little more than I expect it to go up! I’m not going to give some stupidly rampy numbers, and typically you won’t see that on this board. But the last 2 years have seen ABDX almost completely reposition to take advantage of a growth market, and we are now really at the stage where we can do so as products fall out of the hopper and commercialise. It’s exciting for me.

I do think, however, that given the pros and cons we are currently very undervalued because we are now built on very solid foundations with, IMVO, a very low downside risk and large near term potential.

For any potential investors looking in. Feel free to add or criticise!

PROS

- Experienced and highly aligned board that is delivering on clear objectives

- Management incentivised with performance related LTIP

- much higher retail market awareness and acceptance of LFT

- need for, and moves towards, decentralised healthcare

- many applications; clinical, animal, plant, environmental, defence

- huge innovations to increase sensitivity, and sustainability

- much more scientific interest in LFT and ergo many more developers

- large and fast growing market

- expanding distribution network, to include major retailers

-Boots OEM arrangement which appears to be working well and could expand to other products.

- fee model gives revenue certainty

- developers take the risk - we get paid regardless

- any products succeed, we’re likely to manufacture and improve annuity underpin

- Large, growing and varied customer base

- Growing revenue and margin

- Negligible cash burn (cash flow positive in Q4 2024)

- Continued strong revenue growth expected in FY 2025

- costs controlled

- ALL areas of the business delivering growth

- our risk is spread across diverse customer base and application area.

- exciting products in the pipeline, including LDAP accepted.

- positioning as an LFT CDMO knowledge leader

- boosted regulatory offering in complex regulatory environment

- planted footprint in USA with FOFH

- Owns 25% of Eco-Flo Innovations, with first to market plastic free cassette set to launch imminently. A clear selling to customers given environmental concerns.

- Automated manufacturing capacity for tens of millions per year, currently under-utilised.

- more customers transferring to manufacturing, and more to come through the hopper

- able to offer full end to end service towards commercialisation (research, development, scale up, manufacturing, kitting, packaging, marketing/distribution, regulatory)

- small free float.

- no significant debt.

CONS

- regulatory treacle. Takes a long time to obtain approvals as the number of notified bodies hasn’t keep pace with market requirements. Doesn’t affect CDMO revenue, could impact manufacturing revenue, should increase regulatory revenue.

- raise risk. Burn in H2 was 700k, so c£115k p/m, although cash flow positive in Q4 and aligned mgmt dead against dilutive raises.

- CDMO competition, although this small

-Glassdoor suggests lower level workers find the working environment toxic, although that’s because they’re busy!

The PWC study referenced is here

https://www.pwc.co.uk/assets/pdf/achieving-business-growth.pdf

It’s all about innovation and growth. The only thing I’ve noticed is that Mark was originally set to speak for an hour between 13.10 and 14.10, but the announced slot is for just 30 mins, with a still to be announced session to cover the last 30 mins.

So still a possibility perhaps that the entire session will be on innovation to drive growth, with an announcement in the last 30 mins re Eco-Flo which, let’s face it, is a significant innovation.

Looking forward to next week here.

Well, it seems I’d have lost the bet. The speaking topic was uploaded this evening and reads

“ LUNCHEON PRESENTATION:How innovation is driving the expansion in lateral flow technology use

Mark Jones, COO, Abingdon Health Plc

Lateral flow testing is over 30 years old; with the first (UK-developed) lateral flow pregnancy tests hitting the market in the 1980s. The lateral flow market expanded significantly and has seen a broadening use of lateral flow technology across not only the clinical market but also into animal health, food, plant pathogen and environmental applications. One might argue that the industry had reached the maturity stage of an industry cycle by the 2010s, however, COVID-19 has had a dramatic impact, which Abingdon Health believe is leading to a further cycle of innovation and growth.

The use of COVID-19 rapid antigen tests massively expanded the use of these cost-effective and easy-to-use tests during the pandemic, therefore reducing the barriers to adoption as people became very familiar with the use of the technology. This means people not only feel comfortable testing themselves, but also they’re comfortable using lateral flow tests in other applications, whether it’s self-testing, testing animals, foodstuffs, plants, environmental applications or in other healthcare situations.

As we emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic, Abingdon Health believe we are seeing significant further awareness of, and expansion in, the use of lateral-flow tests; and the emergence of “Lateral flow Market 2.0” with this growth driven by Innovation, shifting the industry back into a phase of significant growth. A recent PwC study(1) highlighted that product innovation was a priority for 46% of all medical device companies; this was the highest percentage of any industry sector PwC reviewed.

As a dedicated lateral flow Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization, Abingdon Health is at the forefront of many of the changes and the Innovation that the lateral flow industry is experiencing and within our presentation we highlight a number of areas where we are seeing new exciting developments.”

Nice to see the small tick up today, but nicer to see the underlying book strengthen the way it has.

MHC got their rapid tests into Boots a while ago. They are all made in China, and are exactly the same tests we offer under the AST brand.

Boots wanted to own label the Vit D and Iron tests. MHC confirmed in their last Investor Meet Company presentation that they were disappointed not to get that business, which I suspect came to us so Boots could get Salistick under their brand.

So, if Boots were to extend their own label rapid test suite, it would make sense just to continue using the same Chinese tests that AST and MHC already sell, and to continue with ABDX as the OEM supplier.

Whether Boots do expand their own label suite is yet to be seen.

Maybe nothing, but Mark Jones was the chap ABDX appointed to be a Director of Eco-Flo. It is his only Director appointment. He’s not even a Director of ABDX.

He’ll be speaking at the summit on 20/8, topic yet to be announced.

Eco-Flo was targeted to commercialise in September, and recent LinkedIn activity/blogs suggest all remains on track.

So it really isn’t a stretch to think Mark, who is an Ops guy really (so an odd choice to speak at a scientific conference) will be speaking about sustainability and Eco-Flo. If that’s the case then we should expect an announcement before 20/8, so allowing his speaking topic to be made known.

Could be rubbish, but it has logic and you know what, I’d bet on it.