Member Info for Muck165

I don’t think the markets will be at all surprised by the winners of this election Apre but even so it still might, as you say, influence when ABDX want to issue the RNS.

I quietly offered tomorrow as a hope just because that’s 3 working days post year end, which ties in with the timings last year. In 2022, however, they didn’t offer it up until mid August!

The TU just confirms H2 revenue and cash position. Those are pretty simple things which I’m sure Yates already knows, so I don’t think there’s cause for much delay.

Not small fry at all Nick.

I am certain the update will demonstrate further progress towards cashflow breakeven. That in itself is positive.

How the market reacts, of course, will depend entirely on how good that progress is and in particular, whether its enough to finally stave off concerns about a raise.

On the TU, it really is worth listening to this again, particularly from 8.41-9.04 when Yates explains our revenue is weighted to H2 and is aiming for significant H2/H2 growth, and from 15.47 to 17.05 when he talks about cash burn, cost control and specifically says that even with a flat H2 equivalent revenue, “which is absolutely not where we’re going to be” we should see an improvement in cash.

So I’m expecting H2 revenue to at the very least higher than the £2.9m for H2 last year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Z32joS9aD4

You did - Folium Science and their CrispR test for testing Salmonella in chicken flocks. So absolutely, it’s not just the home, but in the field and the farm.

And add to that the AMR concern. AMR is just as much fostered in animal populations because of anti biotic misuse as it is in humans, and there’s a real drive for accurate cheap testing methods to address that misuse. Again, great for us.

I post about Yates interest in HN51 not because I want to see another potentially more deadly pandemic, but because much of what can affect humans comes from animals. Currently the biggest HN51 concern is that the world doesn’t know how big the problem is because there’s no effective diagnostic surveillance. That presents an opportunity for us. And god forbid we did see a global rise, well if we had an accurate cheap diagnostic ready to go then our value might see rises like NCYT did with C19.

Just for info, but this just shows how scientific interest in lateral flow has increased, and the huge variety of potential applications it can be applied to.

6 months into this year there have been more publications than in the whole of 2018. They say war breeds invention - C19 has done the same for LFT awareness and innovation.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=%22Lateral+flow%22&timeline=expanded&sort=date

Only other thing I’d say is that, whilst retail sales and distribution will grow as greater responsibility for healthcare moves to the home and the individual, we can’t forget the potentially huge global centralised healthcare market that great products like those from Loop, Upfront and 52N are targeting.

Well said Apre, and agreed.

As a very small point, when I first stated watching the ABDX LinkedIn feed closely (about 18 months ago), they had about 3400 followers. Now it’s 5655 and rising each month. Still might not seem a lot but that’s a 60% rise and mostly from academia and industry.

Last year the TU was three working days post year end, so I’m quietly hoping Thursday. If not then I’m expecting it next week.

It won’t be a game changer for us in and of itself, but that’s not really what ABDX is all about. We’re about having fingers in a lot of pies. In 12 months time we could easily be manufacturing at scale and at high margin for Upfront, 52 North, Hormona, FOFH, Salignostics (for much wider global distribution), Loop, and plenty of others, not to mention potential widespread adoption of Eco-Flo and growth in our own core CDMO and distribution business.

It might seem a bit dull and boring at the moment but, as I’ve said, I’m struggling to find much downside risk here, am excited by all the potential, and agree we’re cheap as chips.

No problem - the other thing to bear in mind with Hormona is that their tests are for regular hormone monitoring.. Regular means repeat manufacturing.

The article embedded in the linkedin post actually says the launch will be in the Autumn.

But that's not too far away.

And interestingly, it also says that most of the current Hormana customers are either in Sweden.......or the US. And it also looks like there are 3 different tests.

I have little doubt that we will be making them but, as is ever the case I think they will need reg approval first and, so far at least, I can't find them anywhere on the MRHA or FDA approved registers. But for Hormona to be signposting a launch indicates approval (if required) shouldn't be far off.

It is difficult to keep track of everyone we are working with. See this article from July last year in which Hormona say

"Hormona is proud to partner with Abingdon Health to further the research and development of its hormone health projects; making full use of Abingdon’s CDMO services from start to finish."

https://www.femtechworld.co.uk/features/why-employers-should-prioritise-womens-health-abi23/

Hormona - posted this morning;

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/hormona_hon-ligger-bakom-nytt-hormontest-f%C3%B6r-kvinnor-activity-7213461174284144640-SWE7?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

Interesting to see the coverage they're getting, but also "The article also covers our incredible success so far and our exciting upcoming launch of at-home hormone tests, a major innovation in women’s health."

Been a while coming, but looks like their home tests are about ready to go.

And a little one, but apparently we are now in "Plastic Free July". Would be a great time for an announcement on Eco Flo, which is certainly one of the things on my radar at the mo. See also this

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/york-biotech-campus_sciencepark-bioscience-activity-7213458471453630465-2GjM?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

Morning Trader - bit confused by your last because Alta Bioscience isn’t (as far as I’m aware) connected to ABDX, other than it’s owned by Chris Hand.

As we await the update.., its interesting to see what Yates likes and one thing he has consistently reacted to on Linkedin are articles about the rise of HN51 (Bird Flu) and its more recent transmission into humans from animal populations.

So it wasn't surprising to see him react to this from FIND published today, in which they call for urgent investment in LFT diagnostic solutions and comment, in particular, that Nucleic Acid molecular tests (which our PCRD product is custom made to support) are the gold standard.

Now, I suspect Yates might just be reacting because he agrees that someone should get on with developing a specific HN51 LFT (there are currently none commercially according to the article), but there is always the possibility we have one in the pipeline already.

https://www.finddx.org/publications-and-statements/press-release/lack-of-h5n1-influenza-diagnostics-undermines-global-pandemic-readiness/

There’s a bit of an oddity I’ve been puzzling over.

As per below, ABDX have said “ Don't miss our very own Dr. Mark Jones' talk (more to come)”

The oddity is that Mark, whilst a Dr (PHD from 20 years ago) is our Chief Operating Officer and an expert in technical transfer and scale up. He’s not our CSO or CTO, being those I would have expected to present at what is essentially a conference about scientific advancements.

We know that the FOFH tests got design freeze in March and that we’d be providing “regulatory and technical transfer CDMO services to Find Out throughout H2-FY24.” That is absolutely work I’d expect Mark to be working on.

So, I’m wondering if the reason Mark is the one speaking is because the FOFH tests are using innovative tech. That would better explain our investment.

Just a musing - ignore as you will!

I’ve been looking at this a bit more.

This is the speaker list, and it’s certainly not small beer stuff. Interesting as well to see us being just one of two premier sponsors for such a US centric conference.

https://www.nextgenerationdx.com/Speaker-Biographies

And it’s not cheap to attend either, at $3,300 per participant for a commercial enterprise buying the full package.

Can’t imagine the sponsorship was cheap either. Yates must feel it’s worth it, and that we can afford it.

ABDX just reposted on linkedin with this comment

We are thrilled about this one! Next Generation Dx is a wonderful conference bringing industry experts together. Don't miss our very own Dr. Mark Jones' talk (more to come) if you are attending, and if you are Dr. Jones and our CEO Chris Yates welcome the chance to see you in person - DM to book some time"

They certainly are trying to pitch ABDX at the forefront of innovation

Thanks Trader90.

Bit more about the summit here - https://www.nextgenerationdx.com/?matchtype=b&adgroupid=103650182373&keyword=next%20generation%20dx%20summit&creative=518793303993&adposition=&campaignid=10428161512&network=g&placement=&targetid=kwd-385710137991&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIlPawls35hgMV34tQBh09ewPuEAAYASAAEgJWFPD_BwE

Kind of all follows on from the latest stuff coming out from ABDX. A few days ago Yates put an article out in linkedin about CRISPR technology, saying that ABDX are at the forefront of innovation using it, and today they put out this blog all about our PCRD solution (which is often forgotten), but which offers PCR level performance.

https://www.abingdonhealth.com/revolutionising-diagnostics/

Everything seems to be about next generation diagnostics so I am presuming that we have some in the pipeline using the new innovations.

Forgot to add, our previous FD Melanie Ross left on 30/11

For the full year to June 23 she cost us £179k, basically £15k p/m.

She hasn’t been replaced. Instead we promoted someone internally to a Group Financial Controller.

So in H2 the FD saving would be another £90k, offset by what ever promotion increase we agreed. Personally I reckon that must be a another £60-£70k net saving.

*“drop to £1.2m/£1.3m”

Still not a problem!