Member Info for Muck165

Last one - a post from Ivdeology about being a U.K. Responsible perso. Apparently they have 489 products registered with theMRHAand more joining weekly.

For AVCT investors on here, I noted that the Launch DX MD liked the post!

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ivdeology-ltd_role-of-the-uk-responsible-person-and-the-activity-7207032517424525313-dbN1?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

We’re still recruiting. Buyer, Project Coordinator, Customer Experience Adviser, Marketing Manager. Whether these are replacements or not I don’t know.

https://www.google.com/search?q=abingdon+health+jobs&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en-gb&client=safari&ibp=htl;jobs&htidocid=UP56j9g3BrVnH_loAAAAAA%3D%3D&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiRr4yjvtmGAxWOQEEAHSb5CQoQkd0GegQIJBAB#fpstate=tldetail&htivrt=jobs&htiq=abingdon+health+jobs&htidocid=UP56j9g3BrVnH_loAAAAAA%3D%3D

Nina Garrett presented at the Merck workshop on the crossover between molecular and LFT. Notable that this time the Senzo CEO (who rarely reacts to anything), as well as the VC backer of Senzo and Drummond Scientific (a US LFT manufacturer) all reacted to a subsequent LinkedIn post. As I’ve said previously, I reckon the FOFH tests are based on Senzo tech, and wouldn’t be surprised if Drummond will be manufacturing in the US.

Liam Currivan reacted to a post from a company called Dyador, only set up last week as a spin out from Bristol Uni but already shortlisted for an academic prize. Equally, their CEO just started liking ABDX posts. They’re apparently “Revolutionising Bacterial Identification” - which is a huge potential market given AMR concerns. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if we’re involved. https://dyador.com/

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/irillishak_rscemergingtech-dyador-diagnostics-activity-7203746127689437185-sf9e?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

Like I say, just snippets.

Thanks Sandy - all sounds reasonable. Not been here anywhere as long as you but AP also strikes me as the tenacious wheeler dealer “rob Peter to pay Paul” type, which personally I think might be necessary when conducting business in the jurisdictions we do. Who knows, he might pull a rabbit out of the hat.

I freely admit that my thoughts contain a lot of conjecture and mistrust, but that owes to my experiences of AP. I’d like to feel I can rely on the truthfulness of formal news announcements but sadly I can’t.

Appreciated - certainly plausible.

So as you point out, the RNS said the raise was to bridge operational expenses, yet in his subsequent interview AP made no mention of paying outstanding tax and indeed left me, at least, with the firm impression it was to pay salaries.

If it has indeed been used to pay tax (reasonable I think), then it does beg the question, have we paid salaries? If not, then it raises the prospect of further strike action at the mine. If we have, then with what?

I know some will think I’m entirely negative about Vast. I’m not. It has great potential if it can sort its finances. That may come from the “Swiss”, who we know very little about, is seemingly delayed, and of course we have no idea of the terms of how it might affect shareholders. Currently my views are;

- Great potential if we can get through this mess

- Dealing with a labour dispute using insolvency laws seems very odd, and I don’t think paints the full picture.

- Don’t understand why anyone would bail us out at a premium to the price, as AP intimated, unless there was a significant kicker for them, and worry what that might mean for us.

Am sick of AP comments in interview and RNS which may have a very small element of truth but is mainly spin.

GLA

Thanks for adding the background context Sandy.

One question - if we raised enough on 15/5 to satisfy ANAF liabilities (and for clarity we’re making a few assumptions there), then why would the auction notice still need to be made on 23/5? If immediate debt has been repaid, why continue the auction process?

No problem. You see it one way, and I another. Nothing wrong with that. Let’s leave it there.

You’re quite wrong. but I’m sorry you think that. Please free to ignore primary state issued documentation and rely on the spin of a proven fabricator.

Rubbish. Let’s look at reality.

Romanian press published details about the re-organisation plan on 4 June, the same day the Court approved it. AP only put any RNS out about it when we on these boards became aware of that media coverage and the SP started to plunge, and that RNS explained it entirely by blaming a labour dispute saying zilch about an impending auction of assets.

Ok first, this isn’t an article. It’s an official, stamped auction notice from a government state agency. Second, it’s from 23/5 /24. If it’s been posted on here before then apologies, I’ve not seen it. But I don’t think it has.

I take no pleasure in posting it but value in these boards comes from having information, good and bad, on which to base decisions.

You wanna keep sticking your head in the sand then be my guest!

Https://static.anaf.ro/static/2/Cluj/20240527103626_anunt_bunuri_imobile.pdf

A notice from the Romanian National Agency for fiscal administration dated 23/5. First para translates as;

“ SALE ANNOUNCEMENT

REAL ESTATE / ASSEMBLY OF REAL ESTATE

Pursuant to the provisions of art. 250 para. (2) from Law no. 207/2015 regarding the Fiscal Procedure Code, with subsequent amendments and additions, we inform you that on the 25th of June, 2024, at 11:00 a.m., BEIUS. STR. HORIA. NO. 20, JUD. BIHOR will be sold by auction, the following real estate, property of the debtor VAST BAITA PLAI S.A., first auction:”

There then follows a long list of assets to be sold.

It could well be, I suppose, that the legal applications Vast subsequently made under insolvency rules could delay this auction sale. But if that is the case, then I’d bet that, and not a labour dispute, was the real driver behind the application.

Yates and Stuart Angell are at the Medtech summit at the moment. A couple of Linkedin posts here for info;

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-7206588716625113089-HfCz?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop - highlights improvements in FDA approval process and confirms we are helping customers through the process

And here's one on about sustainable solutions (see also Yates comment on it)

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/stuartangellivd_as-always-a-wonderful-and-thought-provoking-activity-7206598740487356416-Ypqw?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

I’d just add, Yates has said he thinks we need £8-9m for full year operational breakeven, so my the £5m half yearly number might be toppy! If that’s the case then it only improves matters.

The bubbling concern here is always our cash position and the possibility of a raise.

Yates has repeatedly expressed distaste for discounted raises and said we won’t need one in 2024. But let’s look at the numbers.

We had £2m at 31/12. Assuming 53% margin remains stable and half yearly overheads controlled at c£2.7m, then by my reckoning we’d need H2 revenue of c£5m to return a breakeven operational position and maintain cash. Anything less would see cash go down, and anything more see it rise.

We did £2.9m in H2 2023, so £5m is about a 72% increase. I’d be over the moon with that but see it as a stretch target even though we saw 117% in like for like H1 growth. Yates has nonetheless said he’s targeting a material increase and indicated this will be achieved. By my reckoning, and making the same margin/cost assumptions;

- A modest 25% increase in revenue would see cash deplete to £1.25m

- A reasonable 50% increase would see cash deplete to £1.6m

- 72% would see us maintain £2m cash

- Anything more would see cash rise.

The point being that in any of these scenarios I can’t see the need for a raise, particularly given that direction of travel is an ever improving revenue position with tight cost control.

Just throwing it out there, but could this guy possibly be our prospective funder?

https://www.linkedin.com/in/hans-peter-zihlmann-52203618/?locale=en_US

http://www.pzim.ch/

Nice to have you back HD2U!

Alongside what appears to be positive technicals, we might get news anytime on Eco-Flo, the last FOFH design freeze, other FOFH news, Upfront UKCA, Septiloop sales, Salistick FDA approval, or maybe something entirely surprising.

But those are all still “mights”. What we will get is a TU which should come very early in July, and it’s that TU and associated outlook comments which I’m very much looking forward to! ABDX have quietly, prudently and shrewdly repositioned, built a diverse proposition and exciting customer base, and are now firmly entering the next and more significant commercial stage.

The market’s primed. News is coming. I’m very happy to be in and holding and if I could I’d lump more in I would. It’s just very difficult for me to see a downside here.

Let’s hope everything works out and the 30% profit you hold onto still represents a great win.

Nice to see a “real” close above 11 today (ignore the UT). Don’t know much about TA but that real close, plus a feel from watching the book, means I agree with Wyn - this feels primed.

I’m becoming more convinced that the FOFH STI tests are based on Senzo’s ALF platform.

Our collaboration with Senzo was announced March 2023.

Senzo secured £1.4m October 2023 and they confirmed they were working on STI, HIV, and Hep B/C tests at that time.

In December Senzo’s VP of QA and Reg affairs confirmed he’d put in place all protocols to enable post design freeze trials/analysis. At the same time Senzo put out a detailed blog on STI testing.

In March this year we announced design freeze on 4 STI tests with a fifth coming, and a £500k investment to acquire 23% of FOFH. We announced at the same time that we’d been working with FOFH/Devyn for 12 months, mirroring exactly the collaboration period with Senzo, and only then did a lady working for Senzo VC backers start reacting to all ABDX posts related to FOFH.

Everything ties together in my mind, and in truth it’s the best reason I can think of to explain why Yates would commit 12.5% of previous year revenue, in times where achieving breakeven has been paramount, to acquire just 23% of a company ostensibly operated by a one man band entrepreneur with no history or web presence.

The STI market is massive and growing, particularly in the US. It’s also a market that lends itself perfectly to discrete rapid tests that can be done at home, and a suite of tests offering PCR level performance has every potential to dominate. And we should remember that in 2021 Senzo was selected to join (and remains in) the worlds largest MedTech Innovator accelerator programme, which has an extremely high commercial success rate, and that its staff numbers are growing (alongside fantastic staff reviews of the company) despite appearing commercially inactive - something is happening there.

I think FOFH could be massive. If it is based on Senzo tech then commercial potential is huge - we’d own 23% of all developer rights/IP, would be making and distributing the tests, and would have rights to offer them under own brand labels. The kind of opportunity that Yates just couldn’t ignore.

Could be wrong, but I’m betting I’m not. Ignore as you wish - happy to post supporting links should anyone want them.

GLA

IMO....

Its clear from the various Romanian media reports that at the very least a significant labour dispute has arisen which led to a 2 hour "warning" strike last week. The dispute centres on unpaid salaries (4 months according to Union claims) and working conditions. The Union (no doubt led by some particularly disaffected workers) are sabre rattling and threatening a general strike unless Vast come to the table.

Whether or not the reports are to be fully believed, it can't be great for the mine to have such a disaffected work force and it does beg the question of where the £616k, apparently raised to pay salaries etc whilst we wait for funding, went. If it was paid to the workers then why the action now, some weeks later?

I'm afraid I don't believe the RNS paints the full picture at all, and I am concerned how this kind of labour action and the associated legal proceedings might affect the licence renewal.

If news on the funding was ever needed, its now.

Apologies - don't think this one has been posted but may have been.

This one emphasizes the issue as a labour dispute. I won't translate it because some find that ambiguous.

https://www.radioromania.ro/stiri-locale/bihor-greva-de-avertisment-la-mina-baita-id23924.html

Just for info

So my reading of the article was that Vast Baita requested insolvency in order to nullify execution orders granted against it tin favour of two Romanian tax authorities. In other words, Vast requested insolvency to protect itself against these orders.

The RNS says its a re-organisation instituted under insolvency laws to deal with a labour dispute.

Which is it? Or is it a bit of both?