Member Info for Muck165

Auction is interesting too. No sellers. 5 bidders. Largest wants 1m at 0.602, the next 935k at 0.592.

My two pennies worth.

I think Riverfort are closing out. They had 57.5m left on 19th. I think that sale order is being managed out in chunks by the market makers and these are what we are seeing, at least in part, as delayed after hours reports. We saw them not just today, but everyday since last Weds. The combined value of all those after hours prints exceeds £57.5m.

So if it is Riverfort, my bet is they are practically done. We won’t know, however, because they’ve already reported as being under 3% and have no further TR1 obligations.

The only way to get an indication will be to watch the sensitivity of the book and the auction activity.

Tesco's too.

Being generous it could be that there have been manufacturing issues in Israel, but really I think its becoming obvious that Salistick hasn't taken off like we'd hoped.

@magic - me too. Persistent buys but live ask is falling so suggests hidden supply. Riverfort I expect.

In case you can’t see it 1divvy.

The two bidders I highlighted earlier have disappeared in the auction now under way.

400 shares @0.6

51,724 shares at 0.58

3m shares at 0.58.

We have one seller of stock, offering 850k shares at 0.61.

Unless something changes I doubt we’ll cross.

We have the following bidders for stock

I have level 2 on advfn - every auction shows there.

River fort had 57.5m shares on 19/8. If they are wanting out then you wouldn’t think we’d be held back much longer given volumes since then…

In the auction. Next one is at 10.50 so I’ll look to see if they reappear.

Looking in here and see that in the current auction well above ask have two significant bidders wanting stock at 0.622, well above ask. Is that normal to see here?

Not showing here yet, so…

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/CDL/big-expansion-in-gold-assets-in-western-australia/17198750

Interestingly that micro trade also dropped the live ASK to 0.85.

Another little observation….

All day I’ve been getting live quotes to sell 3m or less at 0.82, and 0.811 for anything over 3m.

There was a small micro trade just after 3pm at full ask.

After that I am being offered a live sell price of 0.825 for up to 6m.

The only real transaction today was a 2m sell at 0.82.

So, despite the only trade being a sell im now being quoted a higher price to sell, and for more volume, than I have been all day. There is a lot of book mgmt going on here, even though everything seems stalled.

For me the only interesting that happened today was that in the closing auction we had a bidder for stock at full ask, but no seller came in to accept it, so there was no UT. That tells me supply has pretty much dried up.

On the news front, our March RNS said we’d be launching Salistick in Germany in Q2 calendar yr 2025. I haven’t seen anything yet to say that’s happened so perhaps news on that front is imminent?

I have to say it seems to be struggling in the U.K - looks like Tesco have ditched it and Boots are now selling at half the price it was at launch.

Yates was a speaker at this event earlier today - as far as I’m aware it’s a very well regarded event so to have him on the podium was positive.

ABDX subsequently put out this blog, which summarises his speech. Parts of it are interesting - the fact, for example, that Africa is expected to account for a very high degree of degree of global population increase and they, without sufficient current health infrastructure, are therefore an absolutely prime market for LFT.

But most of it, I have to say, is just a repeat of what we’ve heard from ABDX many times before, and they are still just using the examples of Upfront, 52N and Salignostics to illustrate their point. It would be nice to hear about something new.

Anyway, it’s worth a read.

https://www.abingdonhealth.com/lateral-flow2-0-the-evolutionfuture-of-rapid-diagnostics/

Well, we didn’t get the buys I’d hoped for but the closing auction followed the same pattern, this time however with a much larger bidder wanting stock at full ASK, resulting in a UT of 450,739 at 0.9.

Similar pattern in the last auction.

The "ghost" seller was still there offering 500k at 0.1.

But this time we had three bidders for stock at 0.09, 2 x 20k lots, and 1 for about 4,500. I can't remember the last time I saw that.

Late in the auction a seller came in offering 42,252 shares at 0.088. The auction closed with UT for that amount at 0.09, again full ASK.

All these tiddly bids might seem inconsequential but the important part isn’t their small size but the messaging behind them. IMO, the influence of the ghost seller on price suppression is waning and buyer momentum is building as they chase stock at full ASK.

I think the book is well and truly turning and I think all parties are now just waiting for the news catalyst. When it comes I'm betting it will be explosive enough to at least drag the VWAP average to about 0.12 over 5 consecutive days.

It’s no problem, and of course I could easily be wrong.

But I am definitely leaving my money where my mouth is. I am utterly convinced there is a background accumulator, and that MM’s have been quietly filling them whilst using Ghost auction offers above the ASK to give the illusion that there are sellers at those levels with a view to price suppressing price until the accumulator is done. And the movements in the auction today tell me that they are starting to chase the book - in other words the accumulation is near done, the ghosts will come off the auction, and the market will trade freely.

But then WDIK!!

Well, you may get your chance today because the auction just finished was one of the most interesting yet.

For weeks we have had "ghost" sellers in the auction, basically sellers offering to sell stock well above full ask and in truth, never really expecting to be hit. They are there more for market optics. We have had very few if any buyers. In the opening auction this morning that changed, when a small buyer came in wanting 79k of stock offering just 0.08. There was no UT because the ghost sellers were well above that price. In the last auction, however, that same buyer came in at 0.09, but thereafter a seller appeared offering c67k of stock at 0.088, and we ended up with a UT at 0.09 - full ASK.

So we have a buyer who tried their luck at 0.08, failed, and so went in at 0.09.

IN my experience all of these auction interactions are little more than "pinging" the book, or optics. What we saw today was, I think, the large accumulator I have suspected has been around for w while first testing if there was liquidity at 0.08, and then at 0.09, where they found it. So I would not be at all surprised to see some decent buys today and the spread lift such that bid rises from 0.08 to 0.09.

Well, it looks like we may see the same thing today.

At the beginning of the day and even after the early buy, I was offered 0.82 for anything up to 3m shares and 0.811 for anything over that.

Although the only trades that have gone through since are sells, I am now being offered 0.825 for anything up to 3m. In other words the live bid for up to 3m has increased from 0.82 to 0.825.

Its a very small "edge up" I agree, but its counterintuitive. You would expect greater sale volume to lower the live bid not raise it.

So it looks to me like the MM's are still hunting stock. Up to you if you give it to them!

And whilst on Eco-Flo, I see they put this out last week.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/eco-flo-test_help-shape-the-future-of-sustainable-lateral-activity-7358780002517041153-M0Ej?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAEuI5eIBooawepY_Ubn_CKcFOzTXAaBN1HA

On the one hand I suppose it’s positive to see them trying to gather information to help them decide what their first product launch should be. But in truth I’m somewhat disheartened to see us still at this stage given that when we announced the partnership, nearly 2 years ago, ABDX said we “intend to make the first plastic-free, compostable cassette ("Eco-Flo") available to customers within the next 12 months.