RE: Medusa1924 Jan 2021 23:53
Just an observation re the M19 RSPT.
When it launched M19 quoted specs of “96 per cent sensitivity, relative specificity of 92 per cent and 94 per cent accuracy in patients with the absence of specific symptoms and who did not know they had an active SARS-CoV-2 infection.” Using the google archive, you can see they continued to quote these specs until at least 14/11.
On 22/10 M19 announced a major pilot in Madrid. “ The pilot has been endorsed by Madrid’s Vice President Ignacio Aguado, who attended the launch of the trials at Universidad Autonoma de Madrid. Once completed, the Vice President has announced his intention to roll out the Medusa 19 RSPT for mass testing widely across the city, including on public transport links.”
On 17/12 Hughes et al announced the £20m investment to ramp up manufacturing.
Again, using the google archive, you can see that at some point between 14/11 and 24/12 the test specs were changed to “ Relative specificity 98% (174/177), relative sensitivity 92% (34/37) and accuracy of 97% (208/214)”
So, I’m guessing that the pilot went ahead giving rise to new test specs, and that the £20m investment was then made in anticipation of a major roll out of it in Madrid. But I’ve seen nothing announcing such a roll out, nor any announcement to explain the change in the promoted test specs. M19 still appear to be trying to get their test accepted in Spain, and on 19/2 posted a video of them promoting it on a regional Spanish TV site.
All in, it seems to me that they’ve either invested the £20m in expectation of a big deal in Spain (perhaps yet to be announced), or they’ve been done over by the Spanish and been left with loads of manufacturing capacity for a test nobody wants.
If my musings have any merit then I hope it’s the latter, leaving AVCT with some lovely manufacturing capacity.
Of course, this all might be a load of old tripe!
GLA for next couple of weeks. Gonna be exciting I think!