Member Info for Muck165

That's my understanding Daffy.

At least until the raise, which will no doubt be at a discount to the post re-organisation SP.

Salignostics post from yesterday

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/salignostics_salistick-salivapregnancytest-empowerment-activity-7168604843752710144-KVDz?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

Just a question, but am I right in thinking that the recalculation of CB conversion price following this raise will increase dilution at each quarterly repayment? Thanks.

Anti Microbial (Antibiotic) Resistance (AMR) is often called the next, or silent pandemic, and is perhaps the biggest threat to human health globally. Back in 2019 (I think) a push was made to advance rapid diagnostics to help quickly differentiate between bacterial and viral infections, and so help clinicians properly target antibiotics to those actually needing (so reducing the spread of resistance to them), but progress has been slow. Now there is a new push…

https://www.pathologyinpractice.com/story/44043/coalition-calls-for-testing-to-tackle-threat-of-amr

Interesting then that last year Senzo (who we who have been developing an AMR LFT) spent many weeks posting about the problem, and now they’ve been selected to join an innovative partnership of six developers chosen for their technology’s potential impact on AMR, the validation they have achieved in a clinical environment, and the benefit they would receive from a programme of support to commercialise and scale.

https://hicdigital.co.uk/six-companies-tackling-amr-join-innovation-programme/

In other posts I talked about how gushers or revolutionary new treatments are the Aim Junkies drug, but that ABDX couldn’t offer them that. Well if, and it is a big if, Senzo did get an AMR test to market (and remember they offer a PCR level of accuracy in their tests), and we contracted to make it, then that would truly be our gusher.

https://www.senzo.com/newsroom/senzo-and-abingdon-health-enter-into-strategic-partnership

Just another possible string to our bow.

Confidentiality clauses in what agreement exactly?

?!

We’ve been told the company needs additional working capital, and that to raise it they need to restructure the share base. Ergo, as soon as they’ve consolidated there will be a dilutive raise. Whether or not that’s just for the £2m they’ve undertaken not to raise beyond, or whether it’s far more so one or both creditors can be satisfied, is really the only question in my mind.

Agree, but can I ask what you mean when you say “great product”?

Reflecting a little more on your question, and for some balance, the fact remains that we are still loss making at this point and continue to have a negative cash burn. That might put some off, particularly if they feel we’ll need to raise before the tanker has turned.

The interims are due at the end of March. I don’t think they will tell us any more than we already know about our H1 trading revenue, but they may well give us an updated cash position and expectations/outlook for H2 which in turn would help us re-evaluate the burn rate and overall progress to cash flow break even.

But as Yates has repeated, the Board (being significant shareholders) don’t want a dilutive raise and are suggesting cash flow breakeven should be achieved (on a rolling 12 month basis) either by the end of this financial year (June 30) or in H1 next year. To do that Yates reckons we need £8-9m revenue depending on the revenue mix/margins, so for him to even suggest that’s possible by June indicates strongly that our H2 revenue will be a lot higher than our £2.4m H1 numbers. And remember, Yates will have a clear picture of revenue expectations given it’s all based on contracted milestone payments.

Ultimately, I see a company targeting a varied and growing market that has prudently re-positioned its service offering to secure its financial foundations, with the expectation that one or more of its partners (which its able to cherry pick given the lack scarcity of CRO/CDMO competition) will successfully commercialise and require manufacture at scale. I’m encouraged by progress to date, excited by the people we’re working with, comforted by strong Director alignment, firmly believe that decentralised testing/healthcare will be the norm in years to come, and note with interest that our US originating revenue represented our biggest growth geography last year.

That’s why I think this is cheap as chips at the moment and will keep adding whilst we’re under the radar. For me the potential upside massively outweighs the risks right now given that one of any number of potential catalysts will see this low free float company SP rise and stay there.

All just my opinion and happy to be challenged!

I think how much there is in the basin is only part of the question. What it will take to get it out commercially is the bit that’s missing and what the market wants to know. I have no doubt there’s plenty of helium at high concentration down there but, as Lorna repeats, this is a unique play requiring a different mindset.

You say “ That HE1 is registered in Tortola , there is no requisite for the release of a TR1 by Companies domicile in the BVI`s .”

I don’t think that’s correct. HE1 May be registered in BVI but it is listed on AIM and subject to AIM rules. AIM rule 17 requires it to notify any changes to significant shareholders, defined as any person with a holding of more than 3%.

Happy to stand corrected if I’m wrong!

Js15 - flow rates are certainly something I’m looking out for.

We’ve been told “ high concentrations of helium began to flow to surface FOLLOWING REVERSE CIRCULATION and yielded a compositional mix up to 4.7% helium, 1.5% argon, 8% oxygen and 86% nitrogen.” (my emphasis).

I’m no expert at all, but that sounds like the flow to surface was done with a little man made help. Natural flow rates and, therefore I suppose, what extra might be needed to help it along, seems pretty important to me.

I think the most obvious reason is because we’re not attracting investors at this stage in our turnaround!

It seems to me that plenty of PI’s invest in AIM companies for the thrill of a potential short term “bagger” or “multi bagger”, and so to attract the “herd” companies need to give them something exciting to hope for, like the prospect of a gusher or a revolutionary clinical treatment, and to shout about it from the rooftops.

We have a company in ABDX that barely whispers its prospects, and which at the moment is concentrating on laying necessary foundations through fee based CRO and CDMO services which to AIM junkies is just boring. And I’m afraid that diagnostics just don’t engender the same excitement as therapeutics or treatments. Personally I think that’s blinkered thinking in a society quietly moving towards decentralised healthcare, but there you go.

Going further, people just don’t get excited about animal, environmental or plant pathogen testing despite significant opportunities there - you ask the average Jo what ABDX does and they’d probably comment “weren’t they that COVID testing company”.

We know, of course, about the wide variety of LFT uses and that our groundwork has two functions; to put the company on a stable financial footing, and to spread our net in hope of helping partners to develop a”gusher” product or products that we contract to manufacture. But to get to manufacture we first have to wade through an uncertain regulatory mire.

We will attract the herd when we get to the point of having material manufacturing deals, which is why I’ve been so excited about our relationship with Upfront and 52N given that their route to market and just been accelerated by inclusion in IDAP.

Tend to agree H5O, but will any sweetener be real news or yet more jam tomorrow?

Another (shorter!) one for anyone interested, this time focussing on 52 North an Innovate UK success story. It was filmed in Jan 24 prior to their IDAP success , but interestingly does comment on their international and particularly US ambitions half way through.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLK0hB_et6Y

From the MIT Technology Review published today.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/02/25/1088930/global-helium-market-semiconductors/

An interesting read in which HE1 earn a mention near the end.

@hawaiifiveo - agree with most of what you say, especially the perpetual jam tomorrow stories that, dare I say it, seem to have been designed to ensure headroom’s can be raised and placings undertaken to keep the lights on. But whilst lenders may very much prefer not to have to enforce security, I just can’t accept they would never do it - if that were the case then what would be the point of the security? That’s particularly the case with Alpha given they have security over an asset that doesn’t even belong to Vast.

I’m a bit confused on something and would appreciate any help!

The GM resolutions are presented as being necessary to give comfort to creditors that all debt can be repaid, and to provide $1m of working capital.

- Res 1&2 are proposed to authorise a raise sufficient to cover debt and WC requirements

- Res 3 is proposed to lift the SP above nominal and thus allow any raise.

There is suggestion that Res 3 could be withdrawn if the SP rises significantly above nominal before the GM, and there is then an UNDERTAKING that if Res 3 is not withdrawn ie the consolidation happens if approved, the company will only raise £2m at nominal value, ie nowhere near enough to satisfy creditors.

So on the one hand the company says it needs authority to raise enough to give comfort to creditors that ALL debt can be repaid, but on the other undertakes that they won’t do it if the consolidation goes through.

So I’m confused, because how does that give creditors any comfort at all?

Finally, does anyone know what legal force, if any, an undertaking given in an RNS has?

Thanks in advance

Ianjo - yep, and if you believe that then you have reason to stay and add.

Personally I don't. To paraphrase, we "hope" to get the first PGM done sale through by the end of the month, which might "potentially" unlock a funding offer. Too many uncertainties there for me particularly given AP's history , let alone understanding what sting in the tail might come with such a funding offer.

Most likely outcome for me is no news prior to the GM, all resolutions pass (although that's not certain at all), immediate consolidation, and then a massively dilutive raise to fully satisfy creditors and provide working capital.

After all that seems like a much better time to add any kind of significant funds than now, unless you think some material news is coming before 29/2

After all that, forgot to post the Webinar link!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFQ8Qy67hJk