Member Info for Muck165

Jamrock - I’ve wondered if the two might be a good fit too. And TBH me well still be working together (see the links)

https://www.abingdonhealth.com/news/acquisition-concepta-yorkshire-lateral-flow-manufacturing-site-outsource-concepta-manufacturing-requirements/

https://www.abingdonhealth.com/news/mhealth-partnership-agreement-signed-with-concepta-plc/

LOL Lucksin - you’re right, patience is a virtue, frustrating though it might be!

“been UNLIKE many other AIM CEO’s”

Sorry

Thanks HarChris and yes that will, I expect be the basic concern. And I’d be foolish to say it won’t happen.

I can only say the Yates has repeatedly expressed his distaste for dilutive raises, and has confirmed again in the interims that “ The primary objective of the Board remains to move the Company to a breakeven and cash flow positive position which it forecasts will be achieved in 2024 without the need for additional funding.”

Yates has been like many other AIM CEO’s by laying out a plan, sticking to it, and succeeding with it, and I’m struggling to recall any time when he’s made forecasts that haven’t come to pass.

I think 2024 is going to be a pivotal year for ABDX as it’s broad and diverse mix CRO/CDMO customers move into manufacturing. Manufacturing (automated in our case with currently unused capacity to make millions each month) generates revenue at far higher margins and so with that, cash will rise.

I personally cannot see a better time to get in.

As I’ve said before, I’m just excited by the potential here! It sells itself.

So why doesn’t the market agree? Am I missing something?

Personally I just think that in the minds of the herd we’re just that boring covid company which rarely has anything to say, where the price might sometimes spike on news only to settle back in the doldrums. The message just isn’t getting out there that in fact we have turned the tanker, placing risk for 2024 has all but vanished, that we offer a market leading, knowledge leading, full function service, and have now dug the groundwork to yield a large mix of sticky clients on the cusp of commercialisation targeting a very diverse mix of applications in a growing market, to include global healthcare services, for which we can manufacture at scale and at increasing margins. And this is all against the backdrop of an overburdened NHS that badly needs to control cost and effectively triage patients, and a society where home LFT testing has become understood. And then we have massive alignment with Directors and a low free float.

The main risks as far as I see them remain with the perceived accuracy of LFT’s, which we know on here is increasing rapidly as molecular tests come on line (Note our Nina Garrett is speaking on that subject at a conference this week), and possibly the potential for Directors to take us private again (although that seems highly unlikely to me).

But I’d really love to hear any concerns others might have in case I’m suffering from confirmation bias!

And another, again for those interested

https://nhscep.com/2024/03/12/new-finger-prick-test-detects-sepsis-in-cancer-patients-at-home/

An article from 15/3 describing their journey for anyone interested. Note that the “contract research organisation” referenced in the article is ABDX.

https://www.360dx.com/point-care-testing/uk-diagnostics-firm-52north-plans-2025-european-us-launches-neutropenic-sepsis

This may be nothing, but Yates put out this interesting but innocuous post this week, which is about an MIT sensor to detect PFA’s (nasty chemicals that never break down) in water.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-7173698228784238592-OSuD?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

Then Eco-Flo posted this, which references the same MIT article and perhaps gives us a hint with

“You never know, you might just be able to get an ECO-FLO Innovations test kit for testing PFAs in your drinking water before long. Watch this space.”

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/4-3-things-week-truth-materials-jo-barnard-16qhe/?trk=public_post_main-feed-card_feed-article-content

As I say, may be nothing, but it could all indicate the first Eco-Flo application being worked on.

Anyone interested in the damaging effects of PFA’s, do watch the Mark Ruffalo film Dark Waters.

I think the question is whether not we could raise what’s needed to cover the all the debt if called, plus working capital, and, if so, at what discount. If we can’t, then we’re in doodoo without further patience from lenders. If we can, the dilution will be massive.

AP needs to update the market on how we currently stand with Alpha and Mecuria, at least IMO.

Oh, and we shouldn’t forget that in H2 2024 Abingdon will be testing the first plastic-free, straight swap for swap, compostable cassettes generated by Eco-Flo (which ABDX owns 25% of), with a target to have the first products available to customers in the second half of 2024.

Think about it - with the drive to net zero, are the NHS (and other global health organisations) more likely to procure millions of non biodegradable plastic cassettes, or ones that reduce Co2 by 80% and plastic across the test by 62%. The same can be said for manufacturers targeting a far more climate aware retail base.

And whilst we of course would want to be making these tests, the added beauty is that we would share in EcoFlo profit generated by ANY manufacturer using the tech.

Jamrock - reflecting more on your earlier question and I think building on what Wyndrum said…

Back in 2020 ABDX invested significantly in additional space and automation to increase its manufacturing capability at the height of Covid, such that we became able to make millions of tests each month and able to fulfil what we expected to be significant DHSC needs. We pretty much put all our eggs in the DHSC basket. As it was, however, the DHSC welched on its contracts and we mothballed our newly acquired Doncaster site and had to rebuild the business based on a fee for service CRO/CDMO model, ie attract developers and help them get to the point of commercialisation and mass manufacture. During that period we used nothing like our full manufacturing capability but we have been very successful at attracting and then taking developers through the development process to the point of commercialisation.

The point is that ABDX are now sitting with a client bank that have been through that development hopper and are starting to need manufacture. And of the tests we know about, ie Salistick, Loop, Upfront, 52 North, there is massive manufacturing potential. Then there are ones we don’t know about.

The point I’m really trying to make is that the real key to future profitability is our currently unused, but soon to be used, high margin, high volume, automated manufacturing ability. And there is very real reason to think that wil all be coming on line soon.

The fact Yates did an interims interview is out of the ordinary.

The fact he RNS’d it is really out of the ordinary.

He’s clearly trying to push the message that ABDX is going great guns to a market that otherwise seems to ignore us!

Or just watch the proactive investor presentation from Jan because this was the first question Yates replied to.

And also good to hear him confirm that the aim is to achieve "like for like growth" period to period, ie that H2 this year should see growth on the £2.9m of revenue in H2 last year.

Nice to hear that manufacturing activity is increasing, especially as that attracts greater margins. Also could to hear him say that the purchase order contracts we've signed with the retailer for own brand products are "material".

Thanks Mary.

YES Gubbie - we are their CDMO partner.

Looking in here for the first time and really just trying to understand the issues. Apologies in advance for any stupidity or ignorance!

Would I be right in thinking that VANQ was never involved in broker intermediated car finance, only has potential exposure through Moneybarn, that Moneybarn only ever offer fixed not discretionary commission payments, and that the current concern is therefore about the administrative (and FOS) cost in dealing with scattergun complaints from CMC opportunists?

If so, then I think this is very oversold. Seems to me that ultimately we may well see the FCA put a mandatory redress scheme in place, avoiding individual FOS case fees, that scheme catching only those firms making discretionary payments. FOS became utterly overwhelmed with having to deal with individual PPI complaints and I just can’t see the FCA wanting to go down that route again.

Or is it the case, as reported in certain news feeds, that the increased number of complaints centres on VANQ core business of cards and loans, ie irresponsible lending? It doesn’t actually seem that way to me but the 11/3 RNS isn’t 100% clear.

As I say, apologies for any ignorance!

Oh, and seeking Breakthrough Designation from the FDA.....!

Worth noting that this pitch was to "a unique audience of NHS leaders and investors".

Nice to see them win, (because any NHS involvement and/or subsequent investment can only be good for us) and for them to confirm that they are hoping to get UKCA this quarter.