Member Info for Muck165

Some more positives from Upfront today

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/gonzaloladreda_timeislife-lvone-ugcPost-7173735155528794115-OaWd?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

You can watch their pitch here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXc3f5yUbts&list=PL9ArOtRubZFgIKycwdRfBerz4s04i5Zne&index=26

Also have to remember we have a low free float, massive director/shareholder alignment, and that most existing investors will, I suspect, be under water at the moment and likely to hold rather than sell given the prospects. So any buying pressure is likely to have an accelerated impact on the SP (unless I've misunderstood!)

Directors out of closed period now interims published (earlier than required), and doesn’t look like there will be any raise for them to join in on, so wonder if they will buy? Has to be a reason they were keen to break up the CP and so give themselves the opportunity.

I honestly don’t see any need for cash now, or in the future, unless to fund an acquisition or greater manufacturing.

HD2U - agree on the retailer own brand. Said it before, but only major retailers “own brand” and so orders in that respect could well be significant. CDMO and CRO was all about building customer base and solidifying our finances through a fee for service model. The plan has always been to take those customers through to manufacturing where real money can be made, especially with products like Upfront/52North which seem destined through IDAP for widespread and early adoption in the NHS and potentially global national health systems. The US currently represent 50% of our clients and that geography represents our biggest growth area.

And just to add that Salistick is absolutely everywhere at the moment in Israeli media outlets including various TV channels following its launch there. 100,000 units have now been sold, but it’s only for sale in the U.K., Nordic regions, RSA, and now Israel - the ROW is yet to come, and we make and kit for the test.

You can fault the comms, but not the results. ABDX are achieving their plans, in the timescales indicated. And as far as funding goes, seems to me we have weathered the sticky patch without any raise and if they’re not expecting to raise in 2024 as revenue increases then there should be no real concern about raises thereafter unless that is to fund a growth prospect.

Manufacturing increasing and with 29 different CDMO projects now in play there is plenty of scope to significantly increase that, and therefore our annuity income, in future.

All very positive, but these are the things that stood out for me;

He hasn’t given us current cash so we can’t extrapolate current burn

He has said H2 revenue will be materially higher than the £2.4m H1 24

Crucially, however, he says “ The primary objective of the Board remains to move the Company to a breakeven and cash flow positive position which it forecasts will be achieved in 2024 without the need for additional funding.” At the investor conference Yates said positive cash flow would be reached at £8-9m of revenue. That would therefore indicate that H2 revenue will be £5.6m - £6.6m, which is truly fantastic!

And of course “no additional funding”

Great interims as far as I’m concerned and can’t wait for more details on the own brand retailer work.

Difficult to argue against the sentiment here given the general radio silence.

DrM - you could of course be right, but if you are I’d be surprised and incredibly disappointed given everything Yates has said.

No need to reply - I have the answer. GLA

Hi - I’m not actually invested here (yet), but was wondering if someone could tell me who manufactures MHC tests?

Some links

https://www.abingdonhealth.com/news/acquisition-concepta-yorkshire-lateral-flow-manufacturing-site-outsource-concepta-manufacturing-requirements/

https://thepioneergroup.com/concepta-inks-global-license-agreement-with-abingdon-health/

One thing I always forget is our relationship with MyHealthChecked, ticker MHC, previously called Concepta. In 2020 we acquired their manufacturing site in Doncaster and agreed to provide ongoing development and manufacturing services for them, and in 2021 we agreed a global licence with them to use AppDx.

They of course are now selling their “branded” tests through Boots, but they don’t actually make them. Just makes me wonder if some kind of further collaboration with them might at some point be in the offing at some point.

Only thing I would add is that we are predominantly a fee for service model which means Yates will have a very good idea of future revenues, which will be based on project timelines and milestone payments. So when he says revenue will be higher, he should be basing it on good numbers.

Fair comment Trader!

We can only go on what Yates said in the Investor presentation, which was that;

Like the H1 comparable, he is expecting material growth in H2 this year compared to the £2.9m in H2 last year.

Costs in H2 are lower generally

R&D credits are received in H2

No one off "settlement" costs in this H2

No longer paying a CFO

Good pipeline..

I hope for, but doubt he will give a full year revenue forecast, If he does, I am hoping for H2 revenue of £3.5m plus. I do think he will give us an up to date cash figure - anything North of £1.35m would be OK I think).

Sorry, here’s the link

https://nocamels.com/2024/03/new-home-pregnancy-test-needs-saliva-and-no-bathrooms/

Another piece from the latest Salistick marketing push.

This one’s more interesting because it gives a better idea of current sales numbers;

“ The UK launch was soon followed by one in Sweden, which Krief calls the company’s best market as Swedes are more willing to try innovative products. There, Salistick was introduced in every pharmacy in the country and even gynecologists started recommending it.

“In a few months, SaliSticks has already sold over 100,000 units. So it’s encouraging,” Krief says. Around 840 million pregnancy tests are sold every year, according to Saligostics.

Actual figures for H1 won't differ from what we were given in the last trading update. The interesting things will be if they give us any idea of projected full year figures to June 30, current cash (from which we will be able to assess current cash burn), and any actual or pipeline project details.

Personally I'm hoping for a nice news nugget to drop before Thursday - they've timed news with the interims nicely in the past....

Earlier release may also of course signal director buys given they are in a closed period until the interims are published. O4 that may be hogwash/wishful thinking!

To be published on 14/3 (when only due at the end of the month). My experience here, and with other companies, is that earlier release tends to signal good rather than bad news.

Just for info, but NIB Biotec, who are developing a test for prostate cancer, put out a post saying they will be announcing their results obtained to date on 20/3, and next steps. Yates has been following and liking previous posts, as he did this latest. Nothing concrete, but fair bet we’re their CRO/CDMO partner so one to keep an eye on.

And just an observation, but Yates has started reacting to posts from Boots. Could they be the retailer we Yates signposted we’d be offering OEM services too? Great if so!