This may well be nothing linked to us at all, but I see that a company called Synergia Energy Limited was incorporated in the UK on 24/1/24, the only director and shareholder being a resident of Singapore - Ms Frances Ping Ping Koh. Timing is interesting, being a couple of days after our 22/1 update, so are its listed activities;
46711 - Wholesale of petroleum and petroleum products
71122 - Engineering related scientific and technical consulting activities
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/15431167
Any thoughts?
Yep, that will be the traders who successfully spread FUD this morning, trying to get back in.
One side to a negotiation is never just going to roll over and agree to everything the other side wants. Thatās just the nature of negotiations. Both sides will naturally be trying to get the best deal they can for them and their shareholders, and itās often said that the right deal is one where neither side comes out perfectly happy. I think we must ultimately remember that both sides have already put a lot of time and energy into discussions and will want to complete a deal.
Well as far as I can see, these are the reasons it may fall.
1. Fear that this potential JV episode maybe a ruse to get new headroom authorised, and then a raise away. I donāt buy that. The new headroom request is normal, sensible, and routine, and would pass in any normal circumstances regardless of the potential JV. Given the timing of the GM amendment, I think it possible the headroom request is linked to negotiations, but I think itās just so SYN can demonstrate an ability to raise, not that they will, or must raise, to get the JV over the line.
2. Fear that thereās some problem that may lead to the deal collapsing before execution. That is of course possible, but I donāt buy it. If there were problems then I doubt Roland would be issuing tweets/RNS indicating imminent execution of the paperwork.
I think the reason weāve not seen execution yet is most likely the simplest and most obvious one - the parties are just hammering out details in documentation that will define their future relationship, and itās taking a little longer than Roland thought. I think Iām right in saying that SYN, or Oilex as was, have been burned by aJV partner in the past and so itās little wonder they want to make sure the deal agreements are clear and unambiguous. The perceived delay brings fear, however, and allows some to stoke that fear for their own reasons.
I think far too much is being attributed to the ādelaysā here.
In my experience hammering out the fine details in agreements after heads have been agreed takes time. Whichever side produced the first draft skew it for their benefit before sending it to the other. Lawyers for the other side will review, discuss with their clients, amend the draft, and send it back. This to and fro continues until you end up with an agreement. There is nothing nefarious about it, but it takes time, time which Roland appears to have mid-judged. That is his only error as far as I can see.
I also dont think the headroom request at the GM is something to be concerned about. The request is pretty standard and I just donāt think eyebrows would be raised at all if it was being done at an AGM. Itās just routine stuff.
Not unusual to reset headroom each year. Should have done it at the AGM but didnāt. More likely they just need to demonstrate an ability to raise finance than to actually raise.
Just seen yours Steward, and you maybe right. Issue for me there is that the easy to get diamonds have gone, and costs of digging down and getting more will be higher. Does that cost merit the generally low value of Marange diamonds?
My two-pennethā¦
I think;
- There is a parcel in the RBZ.
- That parcel originally contained diamonds we mined, but may also have contained diamonds we bought from locals. Gem quality percentage MAY therefore be higher than is normal (why buy grit).
- I have doubts that whatās in the parcel now is the same as what it was when originally confiscated. Thatās because Mpofu had his mitts on it illegally for a few weeks early in 2010, before contents had been properly catalogued by RBZ.
- Nobody knows the parcel value. Best current indicator was AP suggesting in interview that our 4.9% of the Aprelevka tailings would be worth more than the diamonds. Based on figures he gave, our 4.9% entitlement in those tailings worked out about $12m if I recall.
-AP said the parcel value would be āsufficient for our needsā. Personally I think by that he means enough to satisfy Alpha.
So all in, I think ASI is more likely to be closer in his appraisal. But then even a $4-5m shot in the arm would do wonders for Vasts SP.
Iām hoping for an RNS just saying we have the diamonds. The SP will soar on the hopes of some that itās worth tens of millions, and Iāll get out on the spike.
Longer term, if Vast can get on the right footing now then it would seem to present a decent investment case to me given its assets and potential.
Genuine question ASI (or anyone), but do you think diamonds recovered in the initial period of the claim may have been higher grade than industrial? I ask only because of various interviews Iāve read that that our CEO gave at the time and in the few years thereafter.
AP has blamed his inability to discuss the diamonds because of political sensitivities in Country. That could just be excuses to hide lack of progress, but if true then Iāve wondered whatās so politically sensitive about it and, if it were so sensitive, why did the Zim gov not maintain their court challenges rather than roll over and allow a default judgment.
Just throwing it out there, but for me any negotiations/agreements allowing us to go back in Country, perhaps in some way linked to the parcel negotiations, would be much more sensitive.
Likely rubbish - musings really.
Candle, you say ā My thinking is the JV will include conditions around minimum cash levels held by SYN.ā Thatās plausible I think.
But one observation I have is that headroom levels, at least in my experience, are normally a standing agenda item at an AGM. SYN didnāt do that at the Nov AGM, so they may just be rectifying that now.
And I think it equally plausible that the Farminee simply needs comfort that we can raise capital (by demonstrating that we have headroom) rather than requiring us to raise and hold it now.
Others will know better than me, but feels like they're fishing for stock now...
Which Roland has already said is something Syn has experience of, is a formality, and wonāt delay progress should the deal be done.
Agree DVH, and weirdly I think the ādelayā may well owe to Roland fighting our corner in the last knockings of negotiations, when in my experience hardball is played over the finer details. Both parties really want this deal I think, but both will equally want to show their respective stakeholders that theyāve got the best deal they can.
Gordon, I ād normally agree except here they issued the GM notice and then a little while later amended it to include a resolution asking for more headroom. If I were a CEO asking for that Iād feel more comfortable doing so if a major milestone Iād said by RNS was expected by end Jan, then early Feb, and then tweeted about, had actually completed.
Well, itās still early Feb, heās tweeted to say itās all on track, and for my money heāll want this in place and complete before the GM next week.
Things havenāt really changed for me - itās a pure risk reward play and at these low levels the potential rewards significantly outweigh the risk as long as you only invest what youāre fully prepared to wave goodbye to.
No comfort to those with much higher averages I know.
Link for those interested
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FmCEsowGRfE