Member Info for mrtibbles

Mr Bond, why mot admit it you just like disagreeing for the sake of it , over bought indeed, come on you know as well as any long term holder this was over £2 and would have easily remained so were it not for the crack in the pit wall forcing the admission that the mine had been poorly managed and high grading without adequate waste clearance for far too long .

This resulted in a loss of market confidences and a huge increase on capital expenditure for am estimated 4 years, true some traders did exit because of this but then what's new ,traders always enter and exit what ever the company or share price.

I'm sure though that members would appreciate hearing your reasoning as top why the the massive reduction in waste clearance costs with increased operational flexibility and accessibility to higher grades along with reduced diesel and haulage costs wont result in a rise in profits and indeed the share price.

Thank you

Hi Paul,

I also hope we get a vary decent Q3 and if so then possibly a rise of 10p or so would hopefully be possible and a welcome change, but that's just table scraps, what's needed is a steady rise by 50p or more as the waste clearance costs normalise and Sukari is proven to be operating with with more flexibility to deliver sustainable decent guidance .

Everyone is welcome to their own opinion and those you refer to aren't why the share price is down 60%, as any long term holder realises, its the bottom line of increased CAPEX and the loss of market confidence that are the overriding reasons,

Possibly short term traders need to consider their options though because this is where we shall stay until next year so those who stay may as well get a comfy seat

This share price is really gong to stay where it is until there is a sustained delivery of predicted guidance or better and the drain on profits by the waste clearance contract abates very considerably.

I appreciate that there is all the usual influences of inflation and market gold price manipulation but these are really negligible and would be more t than easily coped with were not for the huge drain of CAPEX just to make the Sukari site safer with more operational flexibility.

Once the management has proven to the market that it can be trusted and by delivering the predicted and sustained production rand it is rid of the parasitical cost of the waste clearance then the share price will respond accordingly.

Sorry, in post below spellcheck clanged "concern" to "cony" foe some reason?

Hi Razor's,

Really wouldn't pay any cony to "Blackrock" selling, it was a CFD trade anyway, someone in Centamin once told me that "Blackrock" have an industry reputation of " tinkering " just for the sake of it, by comparison VanEck are regarded as "Good Guys" more interested in the long term prospects of the companies they invest in.

I think it would be all the better if 2Blacrock" closed out completely and Centamin were free of having the parasite on its back!

Personally I would rate Black rock on par with the likes of drug dealers and arms sellers, the world would be a better place without them!

There is a big disconnect between gold prices and gold miners, noted panelists on Kitco Roundtable.

On Friday mining audiences manager Michael McCrae, Kitco Correspondent Paul Harris and David Erfle with the juniorminerjunky.com recorded round table at the Precious Metal Summit in Beaver Creek, Colorado.

During the first quarter of the year, gold futures traded above $2,000. Since then, the metal has mostly traded within a healthy band of $1,900 to $2,000. Yet, the gold mining index, the GDX, is down 3% year-to-date, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ composite is up nearly one-third.

Gold mining shares..."look like the gold price, you just have to turn the charts upside down," noted Erfle. "It's an amazing dichotomy."

Erfle said there are just better options for investors with elevated inflation, good rates on T-bills and other parts of the market showing more promise.

Harris noted the toll the gold market is taking on investors and companies.

"It's grinding down the management teams," said Harris "People have commented to me that they love the sector...but the joy has gone out of it, because it's relentless—the endless calls from disgruntled investors about when it's going to turn around."

https://tinyurl.com/pvz66zjk

This will be the "Teller" 3bear, if things have gone as well as we have been led to believe then there should be some respectable improvements in profits and share price, if not and we get excuses then be prepared for the share price to get a real spanking!

Senior Management representative from Centamin including the head of investor relations are touting for new business in North America this week!

Possibly that market offers more opportunities than the London exchange which is fast losing its influence attraction to companies especially since Brexit!

Not denying the other day to day influences but in compassion they are minor a few pence here and there for anyone who wants to bother, but any as long term holder knows the really major influences on this share price have been the loss of market confidence and the huge increase in CAPX after crack in the wall forced he admission of high grading for far too long by digging themselves into an ever deeper far too small diameter hole with walls of far too steep inclination.

If and when the Capital contract is concluded then with present gold prices the full benefits of open and underground operations will be reflected in the profits which from past experience should have a very positive effect to the good on the share price.

Steve

It would be naive of anyone, trader, shareholder even potential investor to think that any posts on this forum or indeed any internet forum could influence the share price of any stock, so one can only assume there must be some other reasons why any of those groups should bother to visit or contribute to any such forum.

Around a decade or so ago when Centamin was indeed going through some very turbulent times this forum was a source of information from Egypt, most of which wasn't in any of the main stream and market until the following week or later media and the forum was also a source of actual mining related and legal information from professionals who were invested which provided great help and support to members of this forum.

As you point out this forum has no effect on the share price so why should anyone visit it,possibly they just enjoy the contact, or regard it as a place to chat or vent off frustration, nothing wrong with that if it makes them feel better.

Personally I'm glad that people like Cowichan take the trouble to post information and articles such as the one on the Capital waste contract which is after all a major component of CAPEX and a major drain on profits.

Whilst I'm not denying the some of the other market influences on the share price I feel quite confident that when the Capital waste contract comes to an end it will be a great boost to market and investor sentiment generally and the share price will respond accordingly.

By the way you may find the T2W forum of interest it is more about trading than this one.

Tibbs

Thank you Cowichan very interesting!

I didn't say the management team were incompetent, I said from the disclosures they may have been overly complacent or sloppy in their oversight of the contractor.

Long term holders are all too aware of the mistakes of the past and the need to be vigilant in holding the company to account and there is nothing to lose and possibly much to gain in many respects by shareholders asking the management for some explanation.

In the case of the Sukari waste clearance start time was a critical factor so it made sense to use a known contactor who already had the expertise and importantly a large proportion of the specialist plant easily available.

However see below the advice from a highly experienced mining analyst and consultant on the subject-

In general using contractors for mining is almost always a bad idea!

Only when there is a short term mining project such as the pushback at the open pit there, you could argue to use contractors. It is not worthwhile and efficient to equip and staff up for such a project.

When you have a longer term mining project you should use an owner miner approach for the following reasons:

Mining is the core activity of any mining business.

If you outsource this activity you never build up an in-house expertise.

It would be similar for an information business to outsource design of information system and programming activities.

Also It is more expensive as the contractor will build-in a profit margin.

Should they miscalculate and go under, you will have to take over at short notice, which results in a shamble, loss of revenue, appointing another contractor which knows it has you by the balls, or you have to equip and staff up quickly, which in practice is impossible!

There is a loss of control in directing mining activities having to work through another party.

Fair comments Cowichan,

This seems to confirm yet again that using contractors rather than keeping operations (In House) more often than not more costly .

The new management acknowledged three years ago that a contributing factor of the present Centamin woes were due to failing to have sufficient oversight of the contractors in the underground operations which were considerably more costly than if kept inhouse.

So to a shareholder it surprising and of some concern if as first impression suggest from these disclosures that the new Centamin BOD and on-site management may have been over complacent even "Sloppy" in their oversight and auditing of the Sukari waste clearance contactor.

From the information available if true it seems that the alleged contract and operational and auditing inefficiencies have been to the financial detriment of the Centamin shareholders whilst offering some very considerable financial benefit to Capital share holders .

Many civil engineering contracts include penalty clauses which require the contactor to payback or compensate the client for failure to abide by certain contractual obligations and so I wonder if such a clause is in place and Centamin will be able to invoke such a clause?

if not then how are shareholders to be compensated for this alleged overcharging by Capital?

Government Reform / State Exit

The Egyptian government – in particular its military – is heavily involved in different sectors of the economy. Does the IMF agreement require any reforms relating to that?

Yes, an important IMF requirement is for the Egyptian state to reduce its footprint in the economy by isolating the most strategic sectors and selling down its assets in the rest of the economy.

According to the IMF, public sector companies, excluding the military-owned ones, amounted to around 16% of the economy in 2018. This figure is likely higher now.

There is less information about the exact size of the military involvement in the economy, but another 10-15% of the economy seems like a fair estimate. Anecdotally, military-owned enterprises are involved in almost everything under the sun: bottled water manufacturing, retail fuel stations, cement production and holiday resort properties.

While there are many other economies where the state accounts for a large share, I think the military's dominance in the private sector is quite unique to Egypt. Not surprisingly, these enterprises are not very efficient and rely heavily on subsidies, tax breaks, procurement advantages and, in the case of the military, free labour by conscripts.

There is also a lack of transparency and accountability of public enterprises. Egypt's government statistics, in general, is actually of quite poor quality - much of it incomplete and significantly lagging. But when it comes to public enterprises, there is very little information at all. IMF also understands this problem, and improving transparency and accountability of public enterprises is, in fact, one other objective of the program.

In the near-term, selling state assets and cutting tax breaks for public enterprises would raise the necessary revenue to service government debts. In the medium-term, retrenchment of the state from the private sector and a level playing field for private enterprises will lead to greater efficiency, higher productivity and higher long-run growth. Egypt has very high potential growth due to a lower starting base and great demographics, i.e. very young population and strong population growth. But to realize this potential, the country needs to be able to create jobs that will absorb the new labour force entrants. A dynamic private sector is a key element of this.

https://tinyurl.com/2n6ypn3p

Thank you Cowichan,

This seems to demonstrate that despite the progress made in certain areas that the waste clearance contract isn't being run as efficiently as it might be and so costing more than it might do.

I would be interested to hear any opinion's that Dasut may have before writing to the relevant parties .

The Fed’s lacklustre approach to economic policy and how their inaction could lead to another global financial crisis.

The Fed’s flippant attitude towards gold!

https://rb.gy/ec3fj

What Is Quad Witching?

Quadruple witching is an event in financial markets when four different sets of futures and options expire on the same day.

Futures and options are derivatives, linked to underlying stock prices. When derivatives expire, traders must close or adjust positions. That can trigger significant volume and order flow. The four types of derivatives expiring on quadruple witching are:

Stock index futures contracts

Single-stock options

Options on stock-index futures

Stock index options

Note: Some lists include single-stock futures on the list of quad-witching expirations. However these are relatively small products with minimal impact on the market.

Quadruple witching days are the third Fridays of March, June, September and December. That way, they occur near the end of each quarter in the year. In 2023 they’re on:

March 17

June 16

September 15

December 15

When is Triple Witching 2023? Triple witching is the third Friday of March, June, September and December. In 2023, Triple Witching occurs March 17, June 16, September 15, and December 15