Member Info for mrtibbles

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Hi Tornado,

Thank you to you for acknowledging your oversight and also for the correction, considering the complexity and amount of the information delivered by different members of management at these quarterly updates it's hardly surprising if something in the detail gets overlooked or misinterpreted , so it's great that Dasut picked up on the oversight, seems like its better news than originally thought !

Thank you also to Dasut!

Tibbs

Hi Franky,

I remember the Acacia case, it seems the shareholders really did get shafted.

But to be fair the Centamin Sukari situation is somewhat different as the original concession terms are enshrined in law and the company is in equal partnership with EMRA the government agency.

As ear;y as 2015 Kees Dekker highlighted how essential the the higher grades in the underground were to the viability of the whole operation as they were used to supplement the lower grades from the open pit.

This statement came later in Dec 2021

Horgan described these as “bonanza high grade structures” located within both the open pit and underground mines which hosted very high grades of around 30g/t and higher.

He commented, “Sukari has a history of producing these limited, high grade zones, particularly from underground, which have contributed significantly to annual production totals.

“ They were previously discovered by chance but – with our new geological framework and a review of the current drill data base alongside the re-logging exercise – the team is starting to identify and evaluate these opportunities in a predictive, structured and systemic way which allows them to be fully evaluated and then maximised before inclusion in the mine plan.

https://tinyurl.com/bd7ne4jh

Hi Somnamna,

Let's hope that the re sculpting of Sukari will finally make the whole operation much safer and more efficient, evidently in the past because of restricted access and ventilation the underground operations were never regarded as seriously as they should have been, but the new changes will mean that the underground workings will be far more easily accessed and this along with the reduced cost of in house operation should be of great benefit to future guidance and profits!

Keep well!

Tibbs

Hi Dasut,

If that is the case then it is all to the better which would be great!

Which ever is the case though thank you to both Tornado and yourself for the calculations!

Best

Tibbs

Members may find this link of use as part of their mining company research

https://www.cruxinvestor.com/about

Centamin

While the future looks brighter for Centamin, investors may want to take a "trust but verify" approach, looking for an extended track record of outperformance and flawless execution before viewing the operational turnaround as fully secured.

There is still work ahead for management to translate potential into consistent value creation.

https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/centamin-plc-q4-2022-investor-presentation-summary

Daz,

Far too many investors treat the postings on internet forums such as this as personal investment advice, remember, it isn't , investment advice should only be obtained from suitably qualified financial advisors. Forums like this should be regarded as just another reference source of information, along with TV/Radio, financial and social media, but it would be a folly to base any investment decision on one source alone!

Even the returns success isn't guaranteed , because they are generally dependant upon trusting whatever information the company releases into the public domain!

For instance in 2015 & again in 2018 and even after visits to Sukari by corporate analysts and brokers were still advising clients to buy in to Centamin because they had assumed they could trust what the company had told them, unfortunately none of them realised that Andrew Pardey and the previous management were on borrowed time by continuing to dig the company into a very dangerous, very deep and very steep sided pit and the deeper they went their position became even more precarious because they really didn't know for whatever reason how too get out of it again without admitting their irresponsible behaviour for several previous years, possibly more but then the inevitable crack in the pit wall appeared and they where forced to own up!

Anyone who claims that this isn't the case is deluding themselves and others because the facts speak for themselves !

Notice that those that try to claim that there are better ways then those being employed by Martin Horgan and his team now to put Sukari right never actually come up with any credible, less expensive, even remotely workable alternative of achieving a safer and more efficient Sukari operation.

Hi Cowichan,

Thank you for giving us this insight into this ongoing illegal artisanal mining in Eygpt which the government really ought to be making more efforts to stop and then enable legalised and properly regulated mining in its place.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11356-023-25895-9

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/gold-africa-smuggling/

https://www.oecd.org/development/illicit-financial-flows-5f2e9dd9-en.htm

https://enactafrica.org/enact-observer/illegal-mining-drives-nigerias-rural-banditry-and-local-conflicts

Hi Tornado,

Thank you for your taking the tine to provide us with your cost analysis which seems to confirm that the benefits of Horgan's teams new strategy may at long last be starting to have some very positive effects on cost reductions and increased sustainable production which if they continue should make for better profits and a considerable increase in share price, lets hope that is the case.

If so I think we shall all feel a lot better!

Tibbs

It can' be denied that who bought shares in the early days of Centamin and the directors who amassed huge amounts of free or bonus share have all done exceptionally well , unfortunately though the way this wealth was achieved was by cutting corners and using inappropriate mining methods which consisted of high grading with insufficient waste clearance which created pit walls of too steep inclination and ultimately unsafe!

The previous management were aware of the inherent grade problems at Sukari, but from 2015 denied the problem and instead of investing funds to improve the flexibility of the Sukari operation glossed over the investable potential pit wall collapse it by continued high grading!

Even though I am critical of the communications between the new management and the shareholders and don't agree with the decisions to hedge future gold production, I do agree that Martin Horgan had no choice but to almost start again by re sculpting the Sukari open pit operations and improve access and egress to the essential underground operations , something that Pardey and co should have done over eight years ago!

The annoying thing for the majority of newer share holders from 2014 on s that they were persuaded to investinto a known flawed mine plan and it is they who are now paying a heavy price, one might argue almost a subsidy of the the profits and good fortune of the very early investors!

Tibbs

I suggest anyone who wishes to contacts Kees Dekker I am sure he will be delighted to answer any doubts about his professional integrity

Most of you will be aware of my posting the articles by Kees Dekker pf 2015 and agin in 2018 which flagged up serious concerns about the way Sukari was being operated by the previous management, although in 2015 Andrew Pardey claimed Kees had used incorrect data , however when asked for the correct data by Kees all dialogue ceased and then Andrew Pardey tried get the article pulled, the article was published and even then previous management carried on in the same foolhardy manner, in 2018 a further article flagged up similar concerns, this was also ignored by Pardey and co, however inevitably their deliberate failings for short term gain where exposed https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/shares/centamin-plunges-as-production-hit-by-mine-trouble

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4229201-kees-dekker-reviews-centamin-plc-analysis

https://seekingalpha.com/author/kees-dekker

Interview With: Kees Dekker, Freelance Mining Analyst

https://tinyurl.com/2jc4n53n

sotolo,

i'm not disputing the profits made by the pervious management , unfortunately though it is their desire for as much profit with minimal investment that has brought about the huge increase ciapex now.

mr gnome offered his opinion in feb 2023

as a general rule, shallow mining has higher margins than deeper (esp. for open pits) mining, irrespective of the stupidity of the ceo or mine manager. simply the strip ratio increases, which means you move more waste to mine than ore, and travel distance you have to drive your trucks increases with vertical depth. so unless grade increases you will have to pay more to get the same return.

if you are not vigilant on pit walls, there is a problem as you go deeper, as you have more vertical meters of walls. the tendency for the greedy and incompetent mine managers and ceos is to try and increase the angle of the pit walls (move less dirt). problem is that when you have not done proper geotech, and looked for subvertical structures properly, [rather relied on sub vertical holes to define subvertical fault planes]...then you are exposed... and your profound greed and stupidity is about to be exposed...., and when the wall decides to fall in, it falls in and nothing will stop it. greed and stupidity exposed, as is suggested by recent history.

then when the ceo (andrew pardey )who managed this sukari fiasco has to be replaced (some survive !!!), the new ceo has not only to remove the excess that has fallen in from the last ceo, but has to cope with the high strip ratio, and has probably realised the incompetent idiot (before him just made everything too steep for stability and sustainability!

so rather than maintain the unsustainable pit angle, he has to "stand back", which means more dirt has again to be moved because of the greed of the last ceo, and hence margins further impacted.

just basic science and engineering, and a good spreadsheet to do the calcs!

i think martin horgan is doing a solid job, under promising (which always gets the wind bag analysts ****ed off, who get paid on % of selling/buying of shares) and delivering firm but good results!

horgan is positioning the mine in a good operational space, and has a lot of optionality being built into the operation, which is boring to the analysts, but very good management!

centamin doing well

comments from kees dekker mining analyst feb 2023

this is exactly correct and the issue identified by me in 2015. it was evident then that the strip ratio was far below planned ratio and the company was painting itself in a corner. hence the title of my report,

get out while the going is good!

Hi Don,

Thank you for the iink , and for asking the questions!

Tibbs

From Cowichan (Don),

According to page 23 of the last site visit presentation, here:

https://www.centamin.com/media/2873/cey_sukari-site-visit_presentation_011122_final.pdf

Centamin's LOM strip ratio (historical + future) is 8:1

Additionally the graph on page 23 for 2022 and onward doesn't show lower ratio's for the open pit (which is where the vast volume comes from) so I would think 6:1 is impossible

Indeed it looks more like a strip ratio of 8:1 to 10:1 is in Sukari's future judging by the chart

Furthermore the graph on page 23 shows the average grade for 2023 will be significantly LOWER than 2022 both in the underground and open pit - so then how is the expectation of higher production in 2023? Will this expectation see a revision?

Maybe the Underground Bonanza zone will change production & grade forecasts to the upside? But haven't seen it appear in presentations lately?

Hi Don,

Your Interesting comments regarding strip ratio suggest you remove the waste removal impact in 22,23 and 24 and the strip ratio definitely reduces.

So if average is 8:1 then as I say remove the first 3 years and logic says strip ratio will (should or GOT TO if Horgan wants to stay in a job) reduce.

Excellent news also is the higher grades years 25 through 29 in the open pit (hopefully justifying the waste contract).

Grades lower than 22 for 23 and 24 but increased ore both above and below ground hence forecast of marginal improvement in ounces!

Dasut

I asked Kees Dekker respected mining analyst for his thoughts on this, see below

Re Without the underground the open pit would be unprofitable!

About higher production in 2023 despite higher grade, some of the open pit mine production is stockpiled with higher grade sent to the mill.

In other words, the mill will treat only slightly lower grade as is shown in the graph for processing plant production.

From the graph provided it isn't possible determine the exact strip ratios in each year, but it is clear that this is substantially higher in years 2022-2024.

So yes, until 2025 the outlook is for lower cash flow from open pit production.

I always considered the underground mine production as the greatest contributor to net free cash flow. In this respect the drop in grade until 2025 will be a brake on cash flow!

The management seem to want to compensate this through higher output and cost reduction.

Hi Newtothissite,

I'm glad that you have found the forum generally informative,helpful and hopefully enjoyable .

As you may be aware there are members from all walks of life including former and existing mining related professionals, some of whom have personal experience of the Sukari operation.

Kind Regards

Tibbs

Update on Paper Vs Physical

Including FED boxed in and Jackson Hole 2023 and FOMC

https://tinyurl.com/kddmyy9v

Spoonington

Possibly oversight due to the severity of your outburst of vitriol you forget to include "Putin" & "Trump" .

Hi Casparoni, strangely enough my experience is similar, more years ago than I care too remember I took a tip on Centamin from a stockbroker acquaintance in the pub!

Hi Dasut,

This re sculpting of the open pit walls has certainly needed a lot of capex although “Earnings” were not affected there has been a very considerable hit to cash flow.

So hopefully unless anything untoward happens or there is a change in corporate policy that capex will continue to go down from now onwards with at least a corresponding increase in net free cash flow until it contract completion middle of 2024.

i wonder then as the contact completion gets closer if the share price will increase be on a corresponding gradual basis or will there be sudden surge on an particular RNS update?