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Hi Cowichan,

Shouldn't affect Centamin too much as I believe most buying will be in $ ,

Of course the local workforce might want a pay rise, but then their local currency is devalued.

Aside from its unique geopolitical significance, Egypt has a unique position in the global oil market that is not lost on the U.S. and its allies. Over and above its official conservative estimate of around 1.8 trillion cubic metres of gas reserves, Egypt controls the major global shipping chokepoint of the Suez Canal, through which around 10 percent of the world’s oil and LNG is moved. It also controls the vital Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline, which runs from the Ain Sokhna terminal in the Gulf of Suez, near the Red Sea, to Sidi Kerir port, west of Alexandria in the Mediterranean Sea. This is a crucial alternative to the Suez Canal for transporting oil from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean. The Suez Canal is one of the very few major transit points that is not controlled by China.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Western-Companies-Look-To-Grow-Influence-In-Egyptian-Oil-And-Gas.html

Hi Razors & Paul,

Agree with you both!

Two Israeli tourists and local guide shot dead in Egypt, Israel says

Two Israeli tourists and their Egyptian guide have been shot dead in the Egyptian city of Alexandria, the Israeli foreign ministry says.

Another Israeli was wounded in the attack on Sunday morning, which the ministry said a "local" carried out.

There was no immediate confirmation from Egyptian authorities.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67046394

https://tinyurl.com/yfeca8ha

US Labour market: what's behind unexpected growth?

Business Matters

Employers added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double the 170,000 estimated, according to figures released by the Labour Department.

Great news if you're looking for work there, of course, but if you're in the Federal Reserve, America's central bank, and worried about the economy overheating, maybe not so good.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w172yzrrxxk9085

06 Oct 2023

Available for over a year

The World Trade organisation has halved its estimate for global exports growth this year - from 1.7% to just 0.8%. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO director-general, said the projected slowdown was “cause for concern, because of the adverse implications for the living standards of people around the world”.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w172yzrrxxk63c2

Russian oil trading and the Chinese push for all 1.4 billion citizens to regularly purchase gold through the People’s Bank of China.!

The impending supply demand imbalance, explaining how soon one third of global gold resources could quickly be consumed by even a small percentage of Chinese citizens purchasing a gram each month!

https://tinyurl.com/5xmjmsfz

Looking back you also need to factor in the political and concession licence legality uncertainty not to mention the undiscovered grades and the true potential of the underground operations and the lifespan of the mine.

Possible a fair share price should be nearer at least £1.30!

But any long term holder knows that this share price is just "Silly' , it was higher than now before Sukari stage 4 was completed, the CAPEX repaid and the commencement of profit share and payment of dividends !

It's pretty stupid that funds and institutions are buying into government bonds nderwritten by the creation of even more debt!

The Federal Reserve's aggressive "higher-for-longer” monetary policy stance continues to take its toll on gold as prices hold near their lowest levels since March.

While the precious metal has room to fall lower, one bank remains optimistic that despite the near-term weakness, prices can still rally above $2,000 an ounce next year and higher through 2025.

In her latest precious metals commentary, Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING, said that gold prices have fallen more than 11% from their May highs above $2,000 an ounce as the Federal Reserve's hawkish outlook has pushed long-term bond yields to their highest level in 16 years. December gold futures last traded at $1,833.60 an ounce, relatively unchanged on the day.

https://tinyurl.com/5eprrzh7

Centamin plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, mining, and development of precious metals in Egypt, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Jersey, the United Kingdom, and Australia.

Snowflake Analysis

Flawless balance sheet and fair value.

Rewards

Trading at 60.3% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 13.23% per year

Analysts in good agreement that stock price will rise by 69.7%

Risk Analysis

Unstable dividend track record

Profit margins (9.5%) are lower than last year (17%)

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/materials/lse-cey/centamin-shares

The analysts said that central bank demand is on course to see healthy demand for the year.

“This recent buying suggests that we have now firmly moved past the net selling we saw in April and May, which was primarily driven by heavy, non-strategic selling from Turkey,” said Krishan Gopaul, senior analyst at the WGC, in the report. “We are therefore confident that the long-term trend of healthy central bank demand remains in place.”

However, while demand has been robust, Gopaul noted that buying activity has been limited to a small number of central banks. China continues to dominate the market after it bought 29 tonnes of gold in August.

https://tinyurl.com/2h8unwws

Hi Nunquam,

It's all well and good for people to claim that they are doing their environmental bit to save our planet by making changes in their lifestyles and habits including buying electric cars without realising that their manufacture and use are the cause of as much possibly more environmental impact and damage as the conventional ones they already have,

Yet people could make a really big contribution to helping to curb the destruction that mankind inflicts on the planet just by not producing so many children without considering the implications and the extra drain on the planets limited natural resources .

Off course in order to achieve this then out of touch politicians have to create a society which is fairer and the wealth in counties the world over rather than being hoarded by the political and other elite's is shared with the masses to provide proper opportunities , education, housing ,health and social care.

Japanese investors are also bucking the global trend of exiting gold exchange-traded funds, with bullion-backed ETF holdings continuing to enjoy strong growth since 2020. Japan added $18.3 million to gold-backed ETFs in August, bringing total AUM to $1.8 billion, according to data from the World Gold Council.

https://tinyurl.com/bdzn6tbb

"When Western investors wake up to the growing debt risks in the U.S., we will start to see investment demand for gold pick up," Robertson said. "I think we might be close to that point."

While Robertson remains bullish on gold, he said investors should pay more attention to the precious metals mining sector.

"Gold should always be a core part of your portfolio as an important insurance policy, but the miners right now are attractive financial assets," he said.

Robertson pointed out that gold's lackluster performance has contributed to significant pessimistic sentiment in the mining sector, creating substantial value for investors. He explained that according to some analysts, the mining sector has a discount of more than 72% compared to the broader market index.

"You still have to be selective when it comes to finding the right companies, but there is incredible value and opportunities for investors in the mining sector," he said.

https://tinyurl.com/4jyehnkn

Who knows, but 10p would be a tempting entry point for the some directors who might then put their hands in their pockets, although they may want to wait until it hits 2p before taking the plunge!

Hi 3bear,

Considering how mineral rich Eygpt is there no good reason why the ordinary people should suffer such awful standards of living and abuse by their government.

Think its pretty safe to assume like most dictators Sisi wont be going short of any food or drink unlike his people whom he really doesn't care a jot about!!

Alaa Abdel Fattah and Mohamed Baker were held in inhumane conditions at the Tora Maximum Security 2 Prison, in Cairo from September 2019 to May and October 2022, respectively. Prison authorities held them in small, poorly ventilated cells and have denied them beds and mattresses

https://www.amnesty.org.uk/urgent-actions/human-rights-defender-tortured-detention

Death sentences were handed down after grossly unfair trials and executions were carried out. Sexual and gender-based violence remained prevalent, amid the authorities’ failure to adequately prevent and punish it. Authorities repressed workers’ right to strike, and failed to protect them from unfair dismissal by companies.

https://www.amnestyusa.org/countries/egypt/

Hi Tornado,

Seems to have been a prudent move, although this isn't reflected in the ridiculous share price!

Also very good points Cowichan which need answering!