Member Info for mrtibbles

Hi 3bear,

Whenever a hedge is taken out there is never any certainty if it was a prudent decision or not, however in this instance they seem to have made a very wise move!

See my previous post on this issue.

Somnamna,

As we are all aware hindsight is a great thing, ex specially wjhen it turns out that you weren't given fullfacts to base investment decisions on!

Bet the directors were OK though!

Quite So Somnamna!,

Kees Dekker looked at HZM some time ago as on first impression it looked good.

They claimed that the process route (always a risk when dealing with laterite) was sorted out and the capex and opex estimated by consultancies/persons with a lot of experience in the field of Ni-laterite leaching!

It shows again that the consultants are totally biased in favour of promoting companies and do not give a stuff about how much damage they can do to investors. Until there is some sort of sanction on them this will continue.

The stock exchange regulators are also biased in favour of companies by not instituting stricter measures for reporting. After Bre-X they went to sleep.

The overriding problem is that consultants are employed by companies (one does not bite the hand that feeds you) and stock exchanges chase companies to list with them, again a one-sided relationship!

Certainly is , how long before they ever recover, assuming they do of course!

Is this a case of the management glossing over the true facts?

Tibbs

Steve, can't speak for the rest, however that said although all miners have been affected by inflation n varying degrees Centamin has suffered the huge albeit temporary increase in CAPEX, to fund the re-sculpting of the open pit and waste clearance along with the expense of changing over from contactor to inhouse operations.

You may have possibly not noticed but I did post a confirmation in past weeks that the waste clearance was 70% complete with an expected completion early in 2024.

As you rightly point out inflation seems to be an ongoing factor, so to be fair it would be very difficult, even unwise to to give an accurate estimation at this stage as to what the AISC will be in 2014, that said it's highly likely going to reduce by a not inconsiderable amount and even better POG may rise!

PUT OPTIONS 30 June 2023 (“H1 2023”

Centamin purchased put options for 240,000 ounces of gold at a strike price of US$1,900/oz. The put options mature at a rate of 20,000 ounces of gold per month, for the twelve months from July 2023 to June 20242. This is a cash-settledprogramme, not involving physical gold delivery.

The programme provides the Company protection should the average monthly gold price fall below the US$1,900/oz strike

price, while allowing us to retain full exposure to any upside in the gold price above this level. As detailed above, this programme aligns with a period of elevated capital investment at Sukari, and gives us further financial flexibility to pursue the Company’s strategy of delivering growth and returns to shareholders.

I doubt inflation has affected Centamin by 20%, it is morel ikely the loss of market confidence and the huge amount of CAPEX for the waste clearance contact which is over 70 % complete now and these cost will recede to more normal and manageable levels in 2024. with additional saving from reduced running costs of some of the heavy plant and the savings of using solar power.

Also don't forget change over from contactor to the inhouse underground team caused some considerable upheaval and the new team have have yet to get up to full efficiency and once the waste clearance is completed it will mean much improved access and egress of to the underground and if all goes as hoped allow access to the better grades.

ROCE this is a lazy method of analysis and not that reliable as it was looking back!

09th August 2022

Dear Centamin Investor Relations and everyone else copied in,

Whilst the recent Q2 presentation was a welcome uplift the reaction in the mainstream media that most retail investors see has been disappointing, possibly because in general if your corporate analysts reviews were to be described in gourmet terms then “Bland” comes to mind!

So I asked Kees Dekker mining analyst for his opinion on the latest post by “Simply Wall Street” on the Q2 update and although very busy he offered the reply below which I have forwarded to a number of other Centamin shareholders, including Donald Lawson.

Very reassuring to get such a response from Kees!

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/materials/lse-cey/centamin-shares/news/centamin-plc-loncey-just-reported-half-year-earnings-have-an

Yes, this publication is not very impressive, going on about “revenue”. Revenue is a product of ounces sold (approx. produced) times gold price received. The latter is not under control of management.

I did not carry out a detailed analysis of the latest results (too busy on another Crux Investors note), but did see that the financial were not terribly impressive after deducting the high levels of capex. Even so, a dividend yield of 5% is more than decent placing Centamin in the top tier of precious metals company paying dividends. The fact that they pay out so much indicates that management is confident about being able to afford it in the long run.

Looking at the large drop in capex in the near future, that is reasonable. Working cost should also come down once the have bedded down the transition to owner mining. Hopefully their strip ratio comes down as well.

Courtesy of Kees Dekker mining analyst

In my mind, if you want exposure to precious metal companies, Centamin is a pretty decent choice.

Doesn't look like interest rates are going to recede anytime soon, but that said the extra waste clearance is over 75% complete so the elevated CAPEX for that will reduce significantly in 2024 which should help boost profits along with reduced day to day operational costs.

Hi Cowichan,

Far better had the company answered your questions when it had the opportunity , when it failed to do so then you are left with limited options, one of which is to refer the questions to the appropriate regulator, that seems reasonable.

Please keep us in the loop.

Tibbs

Its the selling in the form of paper gold in order to encourage the buying of US debt in bonds order create the illusion that the dollar is stronger than it really is, that is the problem.

Run it like a real business' - B2Gold's Clive Johnson has a fix for the sector's slump

https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-09-29/-Run-it-like-a-real-business-B2Gold-s-Clive-Johnson-has-a-fix-for-the-sector-s-slump.html

Looming credit collapse sparks rampant Eastern gold stockpiling.

Alasdair Macleod to examine the East’s blossoming relationship with gold as they’re beating the markets by securing local currencies and commodities against its value.

https://rb.gy/o6053

Wait and see Raz, next year when the extra waste clearance contact concludes the CAPEX will fall off to more normal levels and AISC should reduce which should increase profits.

Fair comments Somnamna,I am certainly guilty of becoming too emotionally attached to this share and far too trusting in the integrity and indeed mining professionalism of the previous management, but that said credit where credit is due Pardey and the previous senior management were certainly dab hands at glossing over the true facts and stringing the share holders along with promises of good times just around the corner!

In hindsight long term holder are now all too aware of just what was waiting for us around the corner and it certainly wasn't a good time but a very costly and drawn out reality check!

But possibly its understandable why long term holders should forget the danger of becoming emotionally attached to a share when considering the Eygptian political turmoil and all the other challenges they faced together and got through!

I realise had we had Steve's attitude towards this share then likely most of us would have bailed out a long time ago along with Josef and the others, but we were all far to decent and far too trusting, but as we now know the market and certainly the company directors have scant regard for either of those virtues or qualities!

But that said it is they who are still the stinkers!

Lets hope though that at last before too much longer Centamin will finally deliver rather than disappoint!

Thank you Cowichan for that informative post,, all very relevant stuff!

The share price was higher ever before all the original Sukari CAPEX was paid off.

Its the cost of the waste clearance that doesn't things though and the value of the UK pound which is buggered against a rising dollar backed by debt and money printing.I

The decline over the last three days is only a partial story of the recent demise in gold pricing. Gold declined by approximately 3.8% in September alone. According to many economists and analysts, the current belief is that gold’s traditional role as a haven asset has all but disappeared. In light of U.S. equities trading under immense pressure as witnessed in the Standard & Poor’s 500 which is on track to decline by 5% this month, gold has no longer filled the void in times of uncertainty. Investors seeking safety amidst the turmoil of US equities have turned to cash and US treasuries which are offering the highest fixed income in years.

https://tinyurl.com/54mpvd5w

You are of course entitled to your opinion, but they are mainly just the market daily ups and downs which traders dance one way or the other to and which Centamin has always had to contend with,.

But had you been invested in Centamin for longer then you may realise that there are other factors which as they became apparent should influence and invigorate the share price to a far greater extent.