Member Info for mrtibbles

Hi Razors,

Thank you for posting the info, you have always been one of the most decent and supportive member on this forum, especially during the past few frustrating to say the least years, thank you for that and lets hope that this time the good times will at last be very good times!for everyone , they certainly deserve some reward for being so patient!

Best

Tibbs

Hi Somnamma,

I 'm sure we all appreciate Dansul's taking the trouble to post something to try and offer some hope of to cheer everyone up by giving us some hope.

But that said I as a long term holder I agree entirely with your sentiments regarding the promises of good times coming some time down the road, how many times have the analysts foretold this, but as we have all been made aware by some of are more knowledgable former mining professionals even when the analysts do visit the mining operations they cant really see much and even if they do see more, it might be piles of uncleared waste or that the inclination of the pit walls are too steep they fail to understand the relevance of what they are looking at.

As to Doropo, their predictions are assuming that the grades which I am led to believe aren't anything special don't turn bad , there aren't any unforeseen natural disasters, civil unrest military coup or even some other fundamentalist factions taking control of the area!

The only analyst who has called it right since 2016 is Kees Dekker, but unfortunately I chose to believe Andrew Pardey and the company take on things thinking that they where acting in the best interests of shareholders and not just covering their own ar*es!

This is why market confidence is shot to pieces and no amount of slick presentations will restore it, that will take far more by way of improved and sustained guidance and actual proof that the huge increase in CAPEX to cover the waste clearance has abated to normal levels.

So they may give share holders a bit more divi, so they ought considering how much they have reduced it in past years!

So lets hope that things are going to change for the better and much sooner rather than later!

Shame the SP has plunged too!

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Thank you Mr Bond,

Just a "Number cruncher", albeit a very senior and highly paid one ,who although holding the company purse strings may have never visited Sukari and who may know, or have very limited knowledge and understanding of mining methods representing Centamin at specialist mining conference?

Hi Razor's,

I agree everything Jarrard referred to was in the present, but then at that time Pardey spoke of the present and indeed predicted so much for the future and what causes me some concern is at that time Ross Jerrard was in the same post of Chief Financial Officer.

So when its claimed the company is in new hands that's not entirely correct, because the ship has the same "Purser" who surely should, would or at least have had some some suspicions that Captain Pardey had been sailing far too close close to the wind and pursuing a very dangerous course for some years until inevitably the good ship Centamin hit the rocks!

So I really do hope that things will really be very different this time !

Tibbs

Quite so Rebess , Andrew Pardey was a two faced stinker who spoke with forked tongue!

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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4244057-centamins-celtf-ceo-andrew-pardey-on-q4-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript

I am really not very qualified to comment on mining services companies so I sought the advice of an industry professional.

From the latest CAPD report CAPD looks well diversified and with solid financials.

Given its dividend yield and the prospects in the mining industry it should give a decent return, although not fireworks!

An EBITDA margin of more than 28% is impressive at face value, but does not give an indication of sustainable margin.

For instance when looking the financials for H1 2023 it appears that much is absorbed by Capex!

Cash from Ops os 38.2 and outflows for capital equipment is 36.2.

That would seem to leave very little for shareholders?

I am really not very qualified to comment on mining services companies so I sought the advice of an industry professional.

From the latest CAPD report CAPD looks well diversified and with solid financials.

Given its dividend yield and the prospects in the mining industry it should give a decent return, although not fireworks!

An EBITDA margin of more than 28% is impressive at face value, but does not give an indication of sustainable margin.

For instance when looking the financials for H1 2023 it appears that much is absorbed by Capex!

Cash from Ops os 38.2 and outflows for capital equipment is 36.2.

That would seem to leave very little for shareholders?

Thank you Cowichan, this is presentation very encouraging and should reassure existing long term holders and encourage potential new investors.

This may also help newer share holders or traders to understand that once the waste clearance contact cost s fall off next year that Centamin should perform far better than many of its peers and the share Sprice-to climb by a substantial l amount! in 2024!

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Capd share price performance is completely dislocated to how the company is performing.

the main headwind is effectively the perception of african risk – particularly in west africa where there have been a series of coups (latest one in gabon, where they are now working for fortescue, a huge iron ore company and a big load & haul and drilling contract).

the reality is that they have a much larger non-african footprint than they are getting credit for – saudi arabia, north america and ****stan with barrick, a big chunk of their labs business is in canada, etc. and these are large contracts which will grow – look what happened at sukari! the drilling business is also the highest margin for the moment – msalabs will have significant margins once it gets to critical mass, but is growing very fast and that lowers the margin in the short term. but drilling is at 28% margin.

capd share price performance is completely dislocated to how the company is performing.

the main headwind is effectively the perception of african risk – particularly in west africa where there have been a series of coups (latest one in gabon, where they are now working for fortescue, a huge iron ore company and a big load & haul and drilling contract).

the reality is that they have a much larger non-african footprint than they are getting credit for – saudi arabia, north america and ****stan with barrick, a big chunk of their labs business is in canada, etc. and these are large contracts which will grow – look what happened at sukari! the drilling business is also the highest margin for the moment – msalabs will have significant margins once it gets to critical mass, but is growing very fast and that lowers the margin in the short term. but drilling is at 28% margin.

London-listed Centamin commissioned a 36 MW solar plant at its Sukari gold mine, located in the Nubian Desert near the Red Sea in Egypt, during the fourth quarter of last year, resulting in immediate cost savings and reductions in carbon emissions, CEO Martin Horgan has said.

At the release of the company’s report for the quarter ended December 31, 2022, on January 19, he noted that the commissioning of the solar plant would result in a potential cost saving of up to $20-million a year at current fuel prices.

Centamin said this also reflects inflationary pressures on the contracted waste-stripping programme, specifically from higher fuel prices.

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Hi Tornado,

Thank you, yes correct , it was in answer at Steve, I take your point about inflation although that is likely always going to around it isn't the reason the share price dropped off from the highs prior to the pit wall crack , you obviously see the true potential of next year once the waste contract costs return more normal levels and the benefits of the redesigned Sukari operation becomes apparent !

p.s,I just noticed in my last post the good old spell check had corrected inflation to something completely different!

Tibbs

So the present share price is due to inflation , true inflation has some effect but over 50% come on and neither does a few pence here and there in the value of the pound against the the dollar, there will be fluorinations some more severe at times than others , but never over a 50% drop.

If that were true then all the institutions would have bailed out long ago and the mine would be on its way to being mothballed, but anyone wants to believe that than surely they ought to be reconsidering their position.

Lets wait and see what happens next year

So in your opinion had it not been for inflation then the crack in the open pit wall and the huge CAPEX for the complete open pit recuperating and waste clearance would have had no or negligible effect on the share price ?

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, we shall just have to wait see next year.