Member Info for mrtibbles

Hi ,
Goldgnome & Sotolo,
Thank you both for bringing this book to our attention, if you go onto the link below there is a free pdf download.
https://mises.org/library/bubble-broke-worldWhat caused the stock-market crash of 1929 and the Great Depression that followed?

This book blows away the conventional interpretations, not only in its contents but that the book exists at all. The Bubble that Broke the World was written in 1931. Author Garet Garrett ascribes the crash to the pileup of debt, which in turn was made possible by the Federal Reserve's printing machine. This created distortions in the production structure that cried out for correction. So what is the answer? Let the correction happen and learn from our mistakes.

Such is the thesis of the great Garet Garrett. But take note: this book was a big seller in 1931. In other words, two years before FDR arrived with his destructive New Deal, ascribing the Depression to capitalism and speculation, Garrett had already explained what was really behind the correction.

We are still fighting an uphill battle to explain the true causes of stock-market crashes and economic recessions, especially the Great Depression. But here in this wonderful book is an actual contemporary account that spelled it out plainly for the world to see.

No more can we say that people back then could not have understood. Garrett told them. And thanks to this new edition of this classic and important work, he is telling us again today.

If you need a decent pdf reader and an alternative to Adobe then here are links to "Foxit" reader
https://download.cnet.com/Foxit-Reader/3000-18497_4-10313206.htmlttps://www.techspot.com/downloads/2713-foxit-reader.html
https://www.pcworld.com/article/256310/use_foxit_reader_to_fill_out_pdf_forms.html

It will be become very apparent as the year progresses that price rise in Centamin is certainly not a dead cat bounce, so hoping to buy back in certainly at £1.30 could well prove to be very wishful thinking indeed.
I appreciate that it's up to everyone to make their own investment choices and there is always a 50% chance of getting it right or of course wrong!
Hindsight is of course a great luxury and indeed on forums one can be whoever they choose to be and so derive great pleasure by being able to appear to always make the right call.

interview from yesterday
https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/10110/pricing-system-broken-thursday-conversation-andrew-maguire
So what the heck is happening today?
Why is price being smashed on COMEX and what is being accomplished?
Andrew explains the significance of the month-end PM Fix for the Banks and the BIS.

But also, what happened back on March 24?
Why did the OTC/spot market break?
What are the long-term consequences and, more importantly, what happens next?
For that, be sure to listen to the final ten minutes of this discussion.

Also
LBMA Gold Price benchmark ignoring market conditions, short-changing investors

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/lbma-gold-price-benchmark-ignores-market-conditions-thus-short-changing-investors/

Did you close your overdraft Sotolo?

They need to half the price of these awful houses they chuck up nowadays and developers should be made to adopt the unit construction and environmentally and energy efficient methods used in the Scandinavian countries.
At present our big builders use outdated building teechnigues and materils that should have been abandoned decades ago, yet the greedy stinkers that sit on the company boards take afvantfge of government (taxpayers) funding to award themselves huge bonuses!

Re- London Gold Price Slips Near $1700 as Scotia Shuts Shop, Covid Sinks China Demand, Moscow Won't Buy
Wednesday, 4/29/2020 14:53

https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-price-042920201

I ran the piece above past Andrew Maguire (London gold trader) and BB members may like to read his opinion of the situation below-

To suggest that there is a connection with SM’s exit from Bullion Banking and the price decline to 1700 spot is laughable.
Also the Russia story proved to be wrong last month, and will be proved wrong again next month.
Actual accumulations over the last 12 months is closer to 1200 Tonnes far from what is being reported!
At present the main factor holding gold from its fair value of $2200 per month is the Bank of international Settlements, which also happens to be holding a market to market event today.

Andrews recent Webinar. https://kinesis.money/blog/talking-gold-with-andrew-maguire/

While small and independent businesses are struggling to survive, the Bank of England is creating billions in new money to bail out Britain’s biggest companies - in secret, via the Covid Corporate Financing Facility (CCFF). [1]

The Bank of England specifically said companies receiving or eligible for funds “will not be made public” and businesses are being made to sign confidentiality agreements. We only learnt about EasyJet’s bailout in a backhand way through the press. [2] This is public money pure and simple, we deserve to know where it’s being spent.

The Bank of England must lift it’s veil of secrecy and make all corporate bailouts public now!

[1] Bank of England provides £7.5 billion in big business bailouts, all hidden from public view
https://positivemoney.org/2020/04/bank-of-england-provides-7-5-billion-in-big-business-bailouts-all-hidden-from-public-view/
[2] EasyJet secures £600m coronavirus loan from UK Treasury and Bank
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/06/easyjet-secures-600m-coronavirus-loan-from-uk-treasury-and-bank
[3] Denmark bans tax haven companies from accessing coronavirus bailout money - will other countries follow?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/coronavirus-denmark-bailout-tax-haven-companies-uk-richard-branson-a9475081.html
[4] The coronavirus loan scheme risks failing the people it was designed to help
https://www.cityam.com/the-long-read-the-coronavirus-loan-scheme-risks-failing-the-people-it-was-designed-to-help/

Centamin Plc (CELTF / YCEE)
Our price objective of GBp 200 (CEE CN: CAD 3.36/sh) is set at c. 1.25x our 2020E NPV
valuation. We use 5% real WACC and no terminal value. We are positive on Centamin due
to: 1) Sukari's asset quality, 2) ounce growth potential, 3) strong FCF, and 4) attractive
dividend yield.
Downside risks to our price objective are loss of the group's Sukari license, operational
setbacks at the group's Sukari mine, a change to the fiscal conditions for the group's
Sukari license, a fall in the price of gold to below our base case assumptions, higher than
expected cash costs vs. our estimates, or the court case ruling goes against Centamin.
Upside risks: Gold prices prove higher than our estimates, Mill throughput rises above
12.5 Mtpa, Underground grade improves significantly, or M&A.

cont-
Worse-than-forecast operational performance (production, costs, capex) including as a
result of poor ground conditions (Mineracao mine, Brazil) & plant performance (Siguiri
mine, Guinea).
Increasing Community & Government demands
The upside risks to our price objective:
Successful project delivery
Sales of assets for above BofAe valuations
Increased NPV multiple on increased attractiveness of gold as a "safe haven" investment

So far Gold Fields’ geographic diversification has prevented significant proportions of
gold production being offline as a result from COVID-19 at the same time. This could be
a relative advantage over more geographically concentrated producers during the
COVID-19 pandemic. Our price objective of ZAR 180 ps (US$9.60 per ADR) is set at c.1x
NPV, (1x the discounted future cash flow - unchanged). We use a sum-of-the-parts
(SOTP) DCF and a 5% p.a. real discount rate over life-of-mine (LoM) cash flows.

nvestment Rationale
AngloGold Ashanti
We have a Neutral rec. on ANG. We have a favourable view of the strategic focus on
returns, We think that ANGs rating could benefit from rationalisation of its portfolio
(exiting South Africa, other non-core assets), but also believe ANGs rating is weighed
upon on weak cash flow conversion. Repatriating amounts from the DRC (Kibali) is the
most significant impediment but indirect tax receivables also continue to build in other
jurisdictions.
Gold Fields
We rate shares Buy. Gold Fields's reinvestment plan over 2017-2018 has begun to pay
off with production increasing into a significantly higher gold price environment. With
Salares Norte capex only forecast to ramp-up significantly in 2021E (with risks of delay
owing to COVID-19), free cash flow in 2020E should be significantly up YoY (US$
nominal amount more than double) on higher production and lower unit costs, making
FCF-based valuation attractive.
Petropavlovsk
Petropavlovsk offers relatively inexpensive leverage to the gold price. The group has had
a mixed track record of operational delivery, but recent ramp-up of the group's pressure
oxidation (POx) hub suggests it may have turned a corner operationally. We also see
"bolt-on" life extension deals as potentially interesting / value accretive.
Price objective basis & risk
AngloGold Ashanti (AULGF / AU)
Our price objective of ZAR 435ps (US$23 per ADR) is set at c.1 x NPV. We use a sum-ofthe-parts (SOTP) DCF and a 5% p.a. real discount rate over life-of-mine (LoM) cash
flows. The 10 year average P/NPV for AngloGold is 1.0x NPV.
Upside & Downside risks: Gold price & Exchange Rates (FX in Brazil, Argentina, Australia,
South Africa). Cash repatriation from Kibali in the DRC. Outcome of regulatory dispute in
Tanzania. Tax receivables build/release in Argentina & Tanzania impacting cash flow.
Downside risks:
Operational suspensions/disruptions from COVID-19 virus, including logistical
constraints on supply chain (including PPE) and ability to make gold shipments.
Unsuccessful attempts to dispose of non-core mines
Project delivery behind schedule &/or over budget (Obuasi, Siguiri, Colombia, Tropicana
underground)
Regulatory changes increasing: the cost of compliance, increasing taxes & royalties &/or
higher closure & decommissioning requirements
ESG considerations: increasing operating costs &/or increasing the cost of capital for
mining companies.
Worse-than-forecast operati

ource: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg
Polymetal (BUY)
We reiterate Buy on Polymetal and raise PO by 33% from GBp1,430 to GBp1,900 as we
raise our earnings estimates on the back of the higher gold price forecast. Our price
objective is GBp 1,900/sh is the average fair value of EV/EBITDA and P/NPV valuation.
We apply a 8.0x EV/EBITDA multiple (from 6.5x previously) to FY20e and use 1.5x 2020E
P/NPV target multiple, which is at the upper end of the historic P/NPV valuation range
for Polymetal. Polymetal has a proven track record of strong project delivery. The
company should benefit from the weak RUB and KZT as its operating expenses are
mostly local currency-denominated. High free float and main listing on LSE makes it one
of the most liquid stocks in the Russian Metals & Mining universe.
On 20 April, Polymetal posted 5% YoY gold equivalent production growth and 9% YoY
revenue growth in 1Q 2020
The company confirmed that its shipments to China were fully restored in early March
with a minor delay as a result fo the coronavirus outbreak in the country
Polymetal reassured that its sales and refining activities remained unaffected by the
COVID19 as of 20 April 2020.

Anglo Gold (Upgrade to Neutral)
We like ANGs stated strategy to focus on returns and believe this could help re-rate the
shares. In particular, the agreed sale of its last remaining South African operations to
Harmony (possibly followed by a change in primary listing) could be a catalyst for a
rerating. While we believe Harmony cannot fund the US$200m cash payment due to
AngloGold on closure of the acquisition (expected before end 1H20), we believe both
parties remain committed to the transaction and that it most likely will occur. Our price
objective of ZAR 435ps (US$23 per ADR) is set at c.1 x NPV (unchanged). We use a sumof-the-parts (SOTP) DCF and a 5% p.a. real discount rate over life-of-mine (LoM) cash
flows. The 10 year average P/NPV for AngloGold is 1.0x NPV.
In contrast, weighing on ANG’s rating (in our view) is the difficulty ANG faces in
converting earnings into cash flows in key jurisdictions. In FY19, AngloGold received
approximately one-third (US$75m) of its attributable share of cash generated at Kibali in
the DRC (c.US$224m). ANG also faces growing working capital balances in tax receivable
in Tanzania (Geita mine) and Argentina (CVSA mine). We think these cash conversion
issues weigh on ANGs rating. These build ups in trapped cash and working capital make
a significant difference to ANGs FCF and there is no clear path to resolution, in our view.

Gold Fields (Upgrade to BUY)
We rate shares Buy. GFI’s production is increasing into a significantly higher gold price
environment, while there is also a lull in project capex in 2020 ahead of the major spend
on Salares Norte. GFI’s nominal FCF should more than double in 2020E as a result and
valuation is attractive, in our view.
So far Gold Fields’ geographic diversification has prevented

Hochschild (Neutral)
Hochschild’s Inmaculada and Pallancata are currently under care and maintenance since
mid-march 2020. These 2 mines (Peru) accounted for c.72% of FY19 EBITDA. San Jose
(Argentina) is currently ramping up. This process should take a few weeks at least.
We increased the production impact of COVID19. We believe that FY20 production
guidance is at risk given the current situation.
Our new PO of GBp150 (from GBp140) reflect our multiple from 1x to 0.8x given that
HOC’s key assets are offline.
HOC withdrew its proposal of final dividend for FY19
Polyus (BUY)
We reiterate Buy on Polyus and raise PO by 37% to US$96.0/GDR from US$70.0/GR on
the back of the higher gold price and reiterate Buy rating. Our PO US$96.0/GDR from
US$70.0/GDR is the average fair value of EV/EBITDA and P/NPV valuation. We apply an
8.0x EV/EBITDA multiple (from 6.5x previously) to FY2020E EBITDA and use 1.1x P/NPV
target multiple, which is close to the lower end of the gold peers' range. We like the
long-term resources potential with 26 life of mines, low costs and potential upside from
the Sukhoi Log deposit development that should raise Polyus’ gold output by more than
70% by 2027. We expect two updates on Sukhoi Log (reserves and pre-feasibility study)
to be the next catalysts for the stock in the next 3-4 months.
On 17 April, Polyus announced optional redemption of its convertible bonds on 18 May
2020 with the aggregate principal amount outstanding of US$181.2mn. The conversion
price is US$44.3077. Bondholders may exercise their conversion rights instead of
redemption. Assuming that all holders of the outstanding Bonds opt for the exercise of
their Conversion Right, a maximum of 1.52% of Polyus share capital will be subject to
delivery to bondholders. We see it highly likely that all bondholders may opt for
conversion. Such an event may put short-term pressure on Polyus shares, but the
increase in free float will be long-term positive.
Polyus established a COVID-19 fund in March 2020

Other Miners
Petropavlovsk (Upgrade to BUY)
We upgrade to BUY. Petropavlovsk offers relatively inexpensive leverage to the gold
price. Our new price objective of GBp35 (from GBp23), 1x our DCF derived NPV
(unchanged), a discount to other precious metal peers.
The group has had a mixed track record of operational delivery, but recent ramp-up of
the group’s pressure oxidation (POx) hub suggests it may have turned a corner
operationally. We also see “bolt-on” life extension deals as potentially interesting /
value accretive.
Recent changes and updates:
• Petropavlovsk (POG) expects FY20 production in the 620-720koz range as a
result of high grade materials from Malomir and an increase in 3rd party
concentrate processing.
• POG remains on schedule for the construction of a new floating facility at
Pioneer that should allow the company to unlock value from its refractory
reserves
• While logistical challenges can be observed in Western Russian, we do not note
any operational challenges at POG’s assets.

Fresnillo (Neutral)
We are Neutral on Fresnillo. While the group historically had a solid track record of
delivering to guidance and execution on new projects, more recently, FRES has struggled
to deliver to guidance and to reserve grades at its key namesake asset. Our new PO of
GBp790 (from GBp640) is based on 1.6x 2020E NPV (was 1.75x)
COVID shutdowns in Mexico don’t appear to have impacted Fresnillo, yet. The group’s
operations are relatively remote to large urban centres and are economically important
to regional economies.
Recent changes and updates:
• FRES expects production to stabilize in FY20 before starting to increase in
FY21. Costs should remain relatively high this year and we do not expect cost
control initiatives to immediately improve financial performance.
• Management aims to maximize production while stabilizing operating costs in
FY20 before returning to growth in FY21 with the Juanicipio project.
• Update on reserves / resources suggests that challenges at FRES are related to
dilution control more than the geological model
• We do consider potential operational challenges in Mexico given government’s
guidance.

Changes to earnings & price objectives
Company details Centamin (BUY)
Centamin operates a long-life tier 1 asset. Multi-year production guidance assumes up
to c. 15% in production increase to 510-540koz by FY21 vs. FY18
Recent changes and updates:
• CEY appointed a new CEO in early April 2020
• The company sees no material impact of COVID19 on its operations /
production for now
• While disruptions from COVID19 at its operations are not impossible, we
consider the risk of having one single gold refiner based outside of Egypt as
client. We understand the company is currently addressing that situation.

Underwhelming operational delivery has likely “troughed”. New CEO Martin Horgan
recently announced. Interim CEO Ross Jerrard will focus back on his previous CFO role.
The COO function is removed and the General Manager of the Sukari mine will report
directly to the new CEO.
CEO Martin Horgan is the co-founder of Toro Gold (development and operation of the
Mako gold mine in Senegal) that was sold to Resolute (not covered) in 2019. He is a
mining engineer with banking experience in London. According to the company, CEO
Horgan views are in line with the current corporate strategy and we shouldn’t expect any
near term fundamental changes (think production guidance…).
Our updated price objective of GBp200 (from GBp180) represents a lower P/NPV
multiple on a higher DCF. 1.2x NPV = average through the cycle (was 1.4x)

Gold prices have performed well during the recent period…
As the ultimate store of value, gold prices have performed well during the past 15
months, posting a rally of 12% since the Federal Reserve did a monetary policy U-turn in
January 2019 (Chart 1). More recently, gold prices have continued to post a robust run,
with returns broadly outpacing other major asset classes year-to-date (Chart 2). Only
long duration bonds and high quality tech stocks have delivered comparable
performance, with 30 year Treasury yields posting 16.9% and the S&P Tech Sector
delivering flat returns YTD.
…except over a brief window where liquidation occurred
Of course, it has not been a straight line up for the yellow metal. In fact, gold prices sold
off very hard with close to 5 million futures trading volume during the March 9th to
March 19th window (Chart 3) on the back of a major liquidity crunch. The move was not
unique to the gold market, with fixed income assets also experiencing a big spike in
volatility around that time (Chart 4). The pre-March 19 peak to trough decline for gold
was 12% compared to an 8% drop in the US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities
(TIPS) ETF or a 22% decline in investment grade ETF values such as LQD.

Gold prices have performed well in the recent period
As the ultimate store of value, gold prices have performed well during the past 15
months, posting a rally of over 10% since the Federal Reserve did a monetary policy Uturn in January 2019. Gold has also delivered a strong performance against other asset
classes YTD. Of course, it has not been a straight line up, and gold did sell off hard for a
brief period in March. The swing in gold prices mirrored the down and then up move in
real interest rates. Now our CTA models suggest gold positioning is light, likely because
of the spike in volatility and the mechanical drop in the gold Sharpe ratio. But this
constraint could change as volatility keeps falling quickly across financial markets.
Now, significant monetary, fiscal easing around the world…
Due to the Covid-19 lockdowns, US GDP could go down by 30% YoY in 2Q20, the
steepest drop in modern history. Other countries like Japan will likely experience a 21.8%
decline in output in 2Q20, while China just reported a contraction of 6.8% in 1Q20. As
central banks rush to expand their balance sheets and backstop asset values and
consumer prices, a lot of risks could end up being socialized. The size of major central
bank balance sheets has been stable at around 25% of GDP for the last decade or so,
just like the gold price. As economic output contracts sharply, fiscal outlays surge, and
central bank balance sheets double, fiat currencies could come under pressure. And
investors will aim for gold. Hence, we mark-to-market our forecasts and now project an
average gold price of $1,695/oz in 2020 and $2,063/oz in 2021.
…lifts our 18m gold target from $2000/oz to $3000/oz
True, a strong USD backdrop, reduced financial market volatility, and lower jewelry
demand in India and China could remain headwinds for gold. But beyond traditional gold
supply and demand fundamentals, financial repression is back on an extraordinary scale.
Rates in the US and most G-10 economies will likely be at or below zero for a very long
period of time as central banks attempt to push inflation back above their targets.
Beyond real rates, variables such as nominal GDP, central bank balance sheets, or official
gold reserves will remain the key determinants of gold prices, in our view. As central
banks and governments double their balance sheets and fiscal deficits respectively (see
Fed balance sheet likely to double this year), we have also decided to up our 18m gold
target from $2,000 to $3,000/oz.
20 April 2020 Global Commodity Research Unit
Michael Widmer,Francisco.blanch,Andy Pham,Jamal Khan,Peter Helle, Warren Russell.

Sorry typo in last post, excerpt should read "exert"

(What a pity there isn't an edit facility on here)

Hi Mr Gnome,
Fair comment, contrary to the Tweets of of the lunatic in the White House the US is guilty of the political, commercial and financial exploitation of so many other nations (including the UK) and when it can't excerpt its will by manipulating the financial markets then it resorts to military intimidation!

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3564510-mnuchin-sees-big-economic-rebound
You're going to see the economy really bounce back in July, August, September," Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Fox News Sunday. "You're seeing trillions of dollars that's making its way into the economy, and I think this is going to have a significant impact," he added. "This is not the financial crisis [of 2008]." The position resembles the forecast issued Friday by the Congressional Budget Office, which expects a sharp contraction in this quarter and then growth at an annual rate of 17% in the second half of 2020.

Hi MrBond,
I hope that you are still enjoying your view!
Quite a coincidence, I am so glad that I also sold out of BP (for several reasons) and Tesco a few years ago and reinvested the funds into Centamin!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnrIE8TrgSA

Trump cuts safety regulations for oil oil producers and asks for $3 billion to support oil production during Covid -19 crisis!
“Instead of learning from this disaster, President Trump is proposing to radically expand offshore drilling while dismantling some of the few protections put in place as a result of the catastrophe.

“The key lesson was that the industry cannot be trusted to self police.

“In response to the disaster, the Obama administration enacted safeguards. Last year, President Trump drastically gutted them, rolling back the frequency and duration of testing for blowout preventers, the device that failed on Deepwater Horizon. There has also been a weakening of onshore monitoring requirements and reducing government oversight to evaluate industry safety.
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/deepwater-horizon-oil-spill-gulf-mexico-conservation-a9473401.html