Member Info for mrtibbles

Gold down just before London open
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do

The main inaccuracy is that 50% share (excluding 3% royalty) does not start until 1 July this year. But otherwise it does show what a great return the Egyptian government has received from this gold mine!

Hitting some nails on the head there Mr Bond!

Quite so Mr Bond,
As you point out she had all the information at her fingertips, as we are aware non-executive members of the board usually start bailing out if things are not as well as they might be.
Of course I sincerely hope and as far as I know all is well at Sukari and with Centamin, so it may be that she is just taking an opportunity that has arisen in her career path.
As others have mentioned in the past the Centamin board is bloated considering the size of the company and I certainly wish they wouldn't keep taking so many waifs and strays in to the Centamin camp as non executive directors.
The vast majority of these non executive directors appear to contribute very little, if anything to the company and yet are well rewarded and have access to some very useful inside information.

Quite so Rebess!

Thank you Dan!

Fair comments Dasut, also after Youssef Al-Rajhi went along with what Pardey predicted in 560- 580,000oz in May 2018 he will now have learnt to check his facts before making a similar mistake in 2020!

https://www.sharecast.com/news/market-report-midday/london-midday-stocks-extend-gains-amid-hopes-of-covid-19-treatment--7433148.html
London stocks had extended gains by midday on Friday despite disappointing Chinese data, as investors pinned their hopes on a potential coronavirus treatment.

The FTSE 100 was up 3.5% at 5,824.45, tracking a broader market rally following a Stat News report that patients being treated for coronavirus in a trial at a Chicago hospital with Gilead Sciences’ investigational antiviral Remdesivir were recovering rapidly from severe symptoms.

Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Markets.com, said: "A lot of the chatter this morning centres on Gilead Sciences, whose shares leapt 16% in extended trading last night after reports that its antiviral drug Remdesivir was delivering positive results in treating Covid-19 in a University of Chicago trial.

"It’s not actually a vaccine, but anything that can help end lockdowns and get economies moving quickly is a huge positive.

"Gilead remains pretty circumspect on the tests - there are obvious risks in getting carried away at times like these when people will cling to anything offering hope. On the other hand, there are a lot of companies working on cures and vaccines right now - human ingenuity will win in the end."

Investors were also digesting data out of China, which showed the economy shrank for the first time since records began in 1992. GDP contracted by 6.8% in the first three months of the year compared to a 6% expansion the final quarter of last year and coming in worse than consensus expectations for a 6.5% decline.

Other figures showed that China’s industrial output fell 1.1% in March compared to a year earlier, which was better than the 7.3% drop expected. Retail sales were down 15.8% in March versus expectations for a 10% decline, while fixed asset investment slid 16.1% year-on-year compared to expectations of a 15% drop.

In equity markets, gambling group Flutter surged as it said first-quarter revenues had been more resilient than initially expected despite the cancellation of many sports due to the coronavirus pandemic, largely bolstered by the continuation of horse racing in Australia and the US.

InterContinental Hotels and cruise operator Carnival were high risers, while Premier Inn owner Whitbread rallied as it said the Bank of England had agreed to buy its commercial paper if necessary to support the hotel group's liquidity during the Covid-19 crisis.

Wealth manager Brewin Dolphin was in the black even as it posted a drop in second-quarter total funds under management and noted that markets have been hit recently due to the Covid-19 outbreak.

Magazine publisher Future surged after its £140m acquisition of TI Media was cleared by the Competition and Markets Authority.

On the downside, private hospital group Mediclinic was in the red as it pulled its dividend and said it sees a hit from the cancellation of non-elective surgery.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3561542-u-s-economy-to-reopen-in-phases-coronavirus-briefing?
U.S. economy to reopen in phases: coronavirus briefing
Apr. 16, 2020 6:18 PM ET|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

The U.S. expects fewer deaths from COVID-19 than even the most optimistic projections, so the country now should begin to reopen, Pres. Trump said at today's White House coronavirus task force briefing.

"A national shutdown is not a sustainable long term solution," the president said. "We are not opening all at once, but one careful step at a time. Instead of a blanket shutdown... we will focus on healthy Americans returning to work" as conditions allow.

Trump said the U.S. plan to reopen will focus on sheltering the most at-risk individuals and establishing clear benchmarks on testing.

"Every state is very different," and states will be allowed to remain closed if needed.

The new federal "Opening Up America Again" guidelines detail three "phases" aimed at guiding parts of the U.S. to move incrementally toward loosening restrictions.

Among many comments, Pres. Trump said sports arenas and restaurants will be packed again at some point but may reopen at first with empty seats separating audience members or diners; Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said sports events with audiences are conceivable in Phase 3.

As many as 29 states could open up relatively quickly - "literally tomorrow" in some instances - the president said.

At 6:15: Dow futures +2.9%, S&P +2.7%.

Highanddry,
Don't feel so down about this, I am sure that most of us will have made similar decisions with share trading in the past, some of my worst mistakes were made when taking the advice of a broker of Logic investments when they got me to open a so called advisory CFD trading account.
My advice to anyone is avoid CFD trading or do it at your own peril, the odds are way stacked against you, but the broker & the MM always win, it's just like trying to beat the Turf accountant but far far more dangerous!
Those that claim to be able to predict the behaviour of Centamin shares ,especially in these times are deluding themselves and trying to mislead others,
Cheers!

This interesting report was the courtesy of Kees Dekker

Dear All,
A valuation which I started after one of my Followers pointed out the company and the high net free cash flow it had generated in 2019. One of my standard complaints about precious metal producing companies is the tiny amount of cash they generate once you deduct investments from cash from operations. Many analysts use AISC cost per ounce as an indication about how much cash a company generates by deducting this from the gold price per ounce. Invariably one gets a very flattering pictures, much better than using measures that are properly defined by accounting rules. One of the tricks companies use to present a flattering picture is to categorise certain investments as “growth” capex and drop this out in the calculation of sustaining cost. My view is all costs, opex and capex, included in the feasibility study to achieve a certain life of mine production schedule are part of the sustaining cost and should be in AISC. This does not happen in practice. I have even seen companies allocate some of their waste stripping as “growth capex”.

Anyway, it was good to come across a company that generates very good cash flow. Unfortunately, Gran Colombia’s management has been fiddling over time with financial structuring that has come at a high price to shareholders. This may be coming to an end with the very high grade Segovia operation doing very well in terms of volume and grade. It should allow the company to repay all outstanding loans within 2 years.

One of the problems valuing underground operations is a reserve base that only covers a few years and not the full depletion of the deposit. Drilling to prove up reserves more than 4 years out is impractical and costly. One must therefore take a view on how many more years of production is likely. My report has left this open for you to decide, but every additional year adds US$65 million to the NPV of Segovia, or 35%.

In addition to Segovia, Gran Colombia owned the Marmato mine where much lower grade veins are mined than at Segovia. It has however a much longer time horizon in terms of proven mineral resources and a bulk mineable component at depth. Based on a preliminary economic assessment, this valuation comes to a value of US$327 million for the mine. Gran Colombia has recently spun off the mine into another listed company, Caldas Gold Corporation, and its 74.4% interest of this amount to US$243 million. The market however places a much lower value of US$150 million on Caldas. On this basis Gran Colombia’s interest has a value of only US$112 million.

However one values Gran Colombia, its beneficial interest in cash flow, or the portfolio stake in Marmato, the company’s diluted Enterprise Value is below to well below calculated values. And this ignores the probability of a longer/much longer life of mine at Segovia.

It earned the report the title: A Dripping Roast.

It is very unusual for precious metal mining companies to trade below their intrins

I agree Dasut,
With the rise yesterday the majority of CFD traders would take that profit,they pay no interest on CFD leverage if in and out within 24hrs) .
Traders and many CFD trading funds have no commitment to any company, they are in it for a quick 5%-7% profit so most jump ship and then onto the next gamble!
I agree a quick profit is all very nice , however as any Centamin long termer well knows this share is a contrarian and unpredictable to say the very least!

Hi Dasut,
Thank you for your thoughts and opinion on the present situation, they are greatly appreciated as always.

It seems that easy access to a substantial water supply is of critical importance when considering the commercial viability of opening a mine.

Hi Market,
My good wishes to you!
It is great to hear from you again, you are one of the old guard that that has helped to make this forum so unique!

Centamin Annual Report due 21st April 2020

Jefferies 08th April 2020
We upgrade near- and long-term gold price forecasts as the world has clearly
become more uncertain and monetary policy should support robust pricing mediumterm. All-time highs for gold/silver ratio (124x in March) should normalise from 2H20
onwards. CEY (7.2%) and POLY (5% excl special) offer strong divi yields, as divis are
suspended across other sectors. No change to order of preference; CEY (Buy, 175p
PT), FRES (Buy, 825p PT) and POLY (Hold, 1,300p PT).
Upgrading Gold Price Forecasts. We increase near- and long-term gold price
forecasts by c15% and +4%, seeing support for pricing >$1,600/oz in 2020 (spot:
$1,686/oz). 1Q20 strength was driven by safe haven buying but we expect current
monetary policy to be a more meaningful, and lasting support medium-term. Silver
price forecasts are cut by c5% in 2020 given weaker industrial demand, but we leave
longer-term forecasts unch. We upgrade EBITDA estimates for CEY/POLY by 19-25%
in 2020/21 and trim FRES by c5% in 2020/21 due to higher silver exposure (36%),
one-month mining shutdown in Mexico and cost guidance from 2H19 results. On
average, our new EBITDA ests are +8%/+7% vs cons in 2020 and 2021 respectively
(Exh 3).
Spot Gold/Silver Ratio Hits All-Time High. The 124x gold/silver ratio in mid-March
broke the prior record of 100x set in early 1991 by more than 20%, driven by a
combination of safe haven buying and silver being impacted by its industrial demand
(50%, 5x that of gold). Longer-term we expect the ratio to normalise back towards
historical averages (68x from 2010 onwards) though this is unlikely to occur nearterm as uncertainty around the strength of the global economy and speed/shape of
recovery persists.
Dividends in an Uncertain World? Gold miners have not traditionally been high divi
payers, but there are positive outliers. Against the backdrop of widespread dividend
suspensions/reductions in other industries, CEY (7.2% yield) and POLY (5% yield ex
special) should be considered safer divi plays. While CEY carries some additional
risk as a single-asset producer, this is offset by a debt-free balance sheet and nearly
$400m in cash and liquid assets (c20% of marketcap).
EM Currency Depreciation Most Favours POLY and FRES. Since late February, EM
currencies have weakened vs the USD. As dollar earners, we highlight POLY and
FRES as primary beneficiaries of this devaluation with approximately 65% and 45%
of their cost base denominated in non-USD currency. The two most important
currencies, RUB and MXN, are 17-23% weaker at spot than rates underpinning 2020
cost guidance.
COVID-19 Disruptions? CEY and POLY have noted no material impact to operations
or supply chains to date. Mexico has imposed a 30-day shutdown (till 30 April)
for non-essential businesses (including mining activity), though there remains
some uncertainty around the ability for mining companies to continue processing
operations during this time.

Centamin annu

Hi Gino,
Scroll down through the posts re court case and you will find it, remember it is from 2014/15

Hi Spot,
Correct in every respect, your synopsis sums up the great contribution that Sinnerthesaint made to this forum, he had great integrity, a sense of humour and would always strive to help whenever he could, he was greatly respected and was a great loss to this forum, but who knows he may yet return if we are lucky, hope so!

https://www.britishbulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=CEY.L