Member Info for mrtibbles

Hi Dasut,
Thank you, it would be good if at least there is a chance to get something back, lets hope so! Also Centamin's never delivering the promised updates on these projects erodes investors trust and raises suspicions about the managements integrity and professional abilities.
As you rightly point out Egypt has not been without its problems, the farcical court case is still awaiting either a ruling, or declaring null and void should Law 32 ever be ratified by the SCC!
The withdrawn diesel subsidy dispute remains unresolved and although it may only be $20 odd million or so that amount of cash could be very useful at these times , but even though Centamin has a very strong case and would most likely win the Egyptian authorities would then have very great difficulty in paying that amount back all at once!

Re recent 'Simply Wall Street' publication on Cey 2022 Q2 update?

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/materials/lse-cey/centamin-shares/news/centamin-plc-loncey-just-reported-half-year-earnings-have-an

This publication is not very impressive, going on about “revenue”.
Revenue is a product of ounces sold (approx. produced) times gold price received. The latter is not under control of management.
I did not carry out a detailed analys but did see that the financial were not terribly impressive after deducting the high levels of capex.
Even so, a dividend yield of 5% is more than decent placing Centamin in the top tier of precious metals company paying dividends.
The fact that they pay out so much indicates that management is confident about being able to afford it in the long run.
Looking at the large drop in capex in the near future, that is reasonable.
Working cost should also come down once things have bedded down the transition to owner mining.
Hopefully their strip ratio comes down as well.

In my mind, if you want exposure to precious metal companies, Centamin is a pretty decent choice!

Kees Dekker

The present methods of reporting by mining companies don't give investors the whole picture or indeed analysts enough of the most relevant information.

https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2022-07/220721_Newcrest%20Jun%202022%20Quarterly%20Report%20-%20Exploration.pdf

The example above is focused on exploration results.

If you have a technical report on reserves, a discussion of exploration results is part of it. However, the report would also include the overall geological model, the outline of the deposit, the resources and their level of confidence, how it would be mined, the conversion factors (mining recovery and dilution), processing, production schedule both for mining and processing, cost structure and a cash flow model, preferably on an annual basis.
For an “operating mine” the company is exempt from providing a cash flow model.
Why?
I have no idea as the whole purpose of the report is to prove these are reserves and by definition these have to be economic.
The marker regulatory authorities are not on the side of investors!

Kees Dekker

Opinion of Kees Dekker-

About Batie, it is non-core in my mind because the very low grade makes it unattractive given the risks associated with a project in Africa and a political high-risk country at that.
Doropo is better, but still not fantastic.
No wonder they downgraded Batie!

Quite so Mr Bond, it doesn't fit now and it didn't fit then!
But that said they BOD are paid handsome remuneration packages to safeguard the best interests of the company and as such they should have carried out the appropriate due diligence!
The region has always been a basket case place of political instability and coups, that surely must have excluded it from fitting he company core projects criteria, and as you rightly point out the other obvious questions are why was the sale being made by Ampella and how many other miners were interested in buying?
In the meantime over £100 million down the lavatory!
Any of the jersey BOD that were responsible for this crass deal and the near ruination of Sukari should be sent down the yellow brick road!

Fair comments 3Bear,
I was also once a Vodafone holder although I got out after an acquaintance who held as senior position there had been complaining that the company was haemorrhaging funds on ill thought through acquisitions and growth obsession , as it turned out he was right to be concerned!
As you say a coup in BK , part of the extra costs of mining in West Africa?
As Dasut mentioned it seems now apparent the the Jersey BOD were indeed sold a "Sows ear" rather than the "Silk Purse"!
But then it all comes back to a lack of due diligence before buying the permits on the part of the Jersey BOD and to some extent the behaviour of Andrew Pardey and others who were on the ground
That said I fail to see how there can be any excuse for the failures of the BOD with regard to Sukari, they were either ignorant of fit and proper mining practice, or complicit in the deceit of share holders by allowing the operation to be run on a wing and a prayer basis for short term gain!

hi MrGnome,
Sorry didn't mention the 22,000 people is those who have been waiting over two years for surgical procedure , there are still over 6 million people who have been waiting under 2 years for a surgical procedure to relieve the suffering and improve their quality of life!
in the meantime our PM has gone AWOL and the two contenders for the job are fighting like cat and dog and trying to outdo one anthers promises of a new beginning

https://nhswaitlist.lcp.uk.com/

hi 3bear,
Sorry I didn't mean to worry you, glad that Dasut has reassured you because he knows his stuff!
I remain angry/frustrated because Cey wouldn't be in this position if hose in the Jersey board room carried out their responsibilities with the appropriate due diligence!
But that said it has presented another opportunity for new investors like you to get in when the company is hopefully about to achieve a sustained recovery through the leadership of a CEO who knows what they are doing!

Hi Dasut,
Thank you for the reply and giving us the benefit of your industry experience, what annoys me is that the BOD approved so much expenditure on the other West African projects which they have now walked from Batie West because they now don't fit the comapny core project criteria
Shouldn't the BOD have carried out appropriate corporate risk assesses before spending so much time and money on them?
Surely its better not to have to borrow money from the bank, it is after ll debt which has to be paid back.
It was Kees Dekker who pointed out the African cost structure and he has great experience in the area, to be fair though he could never understand what Centamin ever started in Batie West and although he thinks Doropo is a safer option, although the grades data so far aren't anything extra special.
But that said possibly Martin Horgan probably has information that is'nt in the public domain because ICentamin don't release Technical reports which give far more relevant information than their present method of financial and/or MDA reporting does,

Hi Mr Gnome,
Very true comments!
Out UK NHS has just announced that patients waiting longer than two year for an operation from 22,000 to 200, sounds good?
What the statement doesn't say is how many of the waiting have died, paid to go private despite having paid national insurance for many years ,nor does the statement mention the number of procedures that under two decades of Tory government the NHS commissioners have decided are not life threatening and so don't qualify for surgical procedures under the NHS.
Nor does it mention the number of people who have to wait months in some instances to see a GP only to be told there is a long waiting list for this so can you afford to go private ,or this condition isn't life inbreathing so you will have to live with it!

Aye Mizol,
Lets hope they remember what the company core project criteria is this time!
Bearing in mind that having spent so many years spending so many millions of company funds drilling so many holes on such promising (or so we were told?) West African projects the BOD simply hadn't realised the project they had approved simply didn't fit in with the company project development criteria, they were simply in the wrong places, oh dear it’s hard to tell when you are looking at a Chad Valley world globe in Jersey, it was only tin globe the souvenir shop had!
But possibly an easy thing to overlook when the BOD were so occupied overseeing Sukari operations, Oh no, sorry they hadn't read the warnings of low grade ore in 2015 & 2018 so they hadn't realised that Andrew Pardey was busily burying Sukari under millions of tons of uncleared crap to push up guidance whilst the Sukari police captain, Oh sorry, general manger was off doing other things, or possibly BOD's attention was diverted to making sure the LHDR spares parts were on hand , Oh no they seem to have missed that as well, it self-destructed!
So, what's the BOD to do now, simply claim they are reborn, let the non-fitting core concessions licences lapse, write off the 30 or so million, cut the divi to pay for it and arrange a line of credit to start up another project of promises in Doropo, "Hooray we're off the hook!" more "good times coming!" for now!
In all this celebration of a new "Centamin Utopia" what seems to be over looked is most of the shower of "Jersey Corporate Parasitical Wastrels " that oversaw, approved, ignored and were responsible for so many "F*ck Ups" that has more than halved the share price and the dividend are still in their comfy Jersey chairs!
Agreed none of this is the fault of Martin Horgan, but he is only one amongst a group of "Trossers" who now want to be looked on as savours of the company that their years of professional failings took to the brink of ruination!
What if Martin Horgan gets bored, or simply has enough and decides building a big train set is really more fun than trying to put right so many years of wrong in a broken mining company?
You couldn't blame him, He doesn’t need the money, so I suppose we must hope that he continues to enjoy the challenge!
Despite recent days of announcements of changes and achievements at Centamin if the analysts review thus far were a meal they would be described as "Bland!" and so the share price remains in the bottom of the sick bucket!
In the meantime, I am sure I am not alone in wanting to see some reduction in AISC and resumption of sustainable respectable Sukari output, without these the share price will stay at these levels, unless of course the POG rises $2500, more “pie in the sky", hope not!

Morning Razor's& Mr Bond, totally agree we need all the good news we can get, no more "Pie in the sky!
Restored respectable guidance at lower AISC is what we need to hear and the restoration of a more respectable divi would be good!
Unfortunately once firms get out of paying a decent divi it tends to become custom and practise!
Thing is so far the Jersey directors have been paid hansdsome remuneration packages to bugger up the company and are now being paid the same to put the company right whilst share holders take the pain with promises of "Good times coming!!".

Here the insights of John Sweeney.
John Sweeney's latest book Killer in the Kremlin explores Vladimir Putin's career, from KGB agent to becoming Russia's president.

Discussing extract of the book, Sweeney said:

"Putin is not mad in the clinical psychiatric sense," and the Russian withdrawal from the battle of Kyiv is evidence of that.

He added that Putin is "much weaker than we think he is."

Detailing how Putin's face had changed since he met him following the shooting down of MH17, Sweeney said that the defeat of the Russian army this winter or spring "will have a catastrophic effect" on Russia's president.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XxAAIhy4B5Y

?? Listen now - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio

From May 2021 although POG has dropped since then!
Just remember that PEA studies have a very positive bias and the NPV numbers will probably come down once feasibility studies have been completed.
A grade of 1.13 g/t for most of the Doropo deposit is not very high grade for African projects with their high cost structure.

Thank you Mr Gnome certainly is very relevant and thought provoking considering the state of things today!

The projects will be exciting if they ever get to produce anY gold at a profit, at present all they are is more commitment to spend many millions of borrowed money with only estimated predictions of a return some time when!
Will these projects rend up just like Batie West?
For Pity's sake Centamin get on with restoring Sukari production at reduced AiSC, all we have as yet is a big bill and promises!

Well fond Cowichan,
Certainly justify all the question you have been asking Centamin on social media, I recall Dasut also being puzzled about the BOD reasoning for dumping Batie West.
Someone I know also submitted questions to Investor Relations asking for reasoning for the abandonment of the Batie West project considering the huge cost for now no return!
As I previously stated why did the Chief Finance Director Ross Jerrard and other responsible company officers not identify this project as not fitting the company criteria sooner,
It is Ross Jerrard's responsibility to identify and challenge corporate risks, well this certainly was considering the cost and potential, now actual loss for non completion!

Nail on the head about the Q&A from Q2 call, certainly was basic stuff you can figure out oneself from reading the material provided.
Pretty sure they are submitted in advance so no surprises come the call in.
Agree Total BS.!
You are also aware of my view on these "Corporate Brokers", certainly seem to be in the pockets of the management, no wonder they don't notice piles of waste on site visits!
It was apparent from the conversation between one of the analysts and Martin Horgan that they engage in the exchange of information , this may all be innocent of course, but never the less it does give the wrong impression as though as though we share holders are being excluded!

Well done Cowichan, hope you ask some questions on Twitter

There you go Paul, a really heartening story to listen to and think about as you enjoy your garden!
Hannah Bourne-Taylor has always been bird obsessed. So when she came across an abandoned baby finch, at risk of being eaten by cobras, instinct kicked in and she rescued it. They developed an incredible bond, with the bird even nesting in her hair. At the time, Hannah had been struggling with extreme anxiety and debilitating obsessive compulsive disorder. Raising the finch would be transformative for her.

Hannah’s written a book about her experience called Fledgling.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct352y

Good Morning Paul,
I think the man you are thinking of is Harry Michael CEO a man of integrity and very knowledgeable of the gold mining industry, thus far easily the best CEO the company has EVER had, a great loss for share holders too because after Harry's demise the management that followed didn't possess the same personal and professional attributes and so began the decade of erratic performance, bullsh*t and spin for which we are now paying a heavy price!
See below-
The chief executive officer of gold mining firm Centamin Egypt has died suddenly, the firm said. by: moneyweek
17 Nov 2011
The chief executive officer of gold mining firm Centamin Egypt has died suddenly, the firm said."It is with great sorrow that the board of Centamin Egypt announces the sudden and tragic passing away today of Harry Michael," the company announced.
Josef El-Raghy, the Chairman of Centamin, will be assuming the additional role of chief executive officer until further notice.
The share price fell 2.93% to 102.6p by 14:11.
https://moneyweek.com/22330/centamin-ceo-has-died-111117-1419-76689
Also Paul
Try not be too hard on yourself about investing in Centamin, in any choice of investment just like most of us you can only go on the information available at the time , I accept that the information I passed on in good faith has proven to be unreliable and those those that offered it to me feel just as bad, one feels particularly bad because several of his friends who invested retirement payouts are now down on their holdings, but there you go we all did what we did because we hope that other others hold the same values as we do and so we take their word in good faith and that's the right thing to do, unfortunately those we trusted didn't share the same values and shafted us leaving us to feel the pain of disappointment and pay the price!
But that said the POG is bound to improve and Marin Horgan does already have a proven track record so he should be able to turn Centamin around, unfortunately already 10 years have been wasted running the Sukari pyramid scheme, rather than a properly functioning gold mine , so this turnaround will be very expensive and will take time!
I must admit though I still have serious reservations about in whose best interest some on the Centamin board are acting in!
See Cowichans post!

Jan 2022 Time frame before Centamin gets at that higher grade ore?

Liberum actually summed it up pretty well (although their accuracy leaves something to be desired!).

Re the underground operations they wrote:

"However, we feel reasonably confident that the UG Expansion Study will have a positive outcome that is similar to, or better than, that currently presented by Centamin. There is also the mouth-watering prospect of bonanza structures being brought into the mine plan: we see the Bast structure turbocharging 2023 production, followed by the 5105 structure a year or two later."

Re the open pit - from the LOA2 review, Centamin stated that the costs of the increased stripping will be more than offset by the improvement in grade from the open pit. However, and as per slide 16 from the presentation on 8.12.21, the head grade from the O/P will of course fall due to the fact of the stripping - which is over a 4 year period (there is a lot of waste rock being mined!) - however the feed into the processing plant remains constant for the next few years (see below).
This is NOT factoring in any production from the bonanza grades identified (and commented on by Liberum), but is a base case and part of the whole process of being consistent in producing 450-500koz per annum.
Important to note , this accelerated stripping is mainly to provide flexibility for future years (as you know, it was under stripped in previous years), which feeds into the strategy to be consistent in gold production!

So any assumption grades remain low for the next 4 years is not correct and will become apparent .