Member Info for mrtibbles

JEPh,
So what news do you have on Centamin & gold?

r1234,
We are all hoping that the turnaround is finally starting to deliver more than just the promises of the past!

Russian state TV has claimed military targets on UK soil should be attacked if British soldiers are deployed in Ukraine.

Igor Korotchenko, a pro-Kremlin military journalist, said Russia doesn't "desire" war with the UK, but would react harshly if any soldiers were sent to the frontline.

Speaking on the state-owned Russia 1, Korotchenko said Russia "reserved the right to resort to any possible action" if British soldiers engaged with the Russian armed forces in Ukraine.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/russian-state-tv-british-army-attacked-brit-soldiers-fight-ukraine-163503865.html
The consequences of this war for our food and energy security are already clear, and compare with our situation when supplies were disrupted in the second world war. In 1940, the solution was found in a rationing scheme that avoided mass starvation and prioritised petrol supplies for essential services. Essential industries were supported and munitions production increased. A coalition government was formed with a war cabinet of the best people from different parties.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/britain-must-wake-war-reaches-164703627.html

Hi Cowichan,
Interesting although unfortunately the UK can only watch from the outside now and the UK has lost all influence in Europe and we have lost so many of the freedoms advantages we once enjoyed being part of an free and open Europe.
To be fair Pitchfork Papers was in favour of remaining in the EU
Leavers have LOTS of money: seems like a lot of very wealthy people are anxious to get out of the EU.
I wonder why? Is it because many of the constraints on how badly you're allowed to treat workers have been put in place by the EU? Is it because the EU has insisted on environmental legislation which hampers the freedom-to-pollute of corporations and governments? Is it because the EU has established an international criminal court where all those people to whom we sell weapons might be called to account? Is it because the EU has tried to come up with some sort of humane response to immigration other than barbed wire and Trumpian walls?
https://pitchfork.com/news/66210-brian-eno-encourages-uk-citizens-to-vote-against-brexit/

Yuen Low
+44 (0) 20 3100 2091
yuen.low@liberum.com

For those seeking a long-short idea for the new year, we
would like to suggest going long on Centamin and short on
Endeavour Mining. This morning, we published a revamped
model for Centamin, on the basis of which we have
upgraded our rating to BUY and set a new Target Price of
106p, implying 22% upside (previously: SELL, 86p). In
contrast, our existing Endeavour Mining target price of
1316p has 15% downside. We therefore downgrade our
Endeavour recommendation to SELL (from HOLD).
The case for buying Centamin
We have revamped our Centamin model following the Sukari Life-of-Asset
(LOA) Phase 2 review (A time to buy, 7 January 2022). To go with our existing
Base Case, we now add an Upside Case, which provides an indication as to
the potential value-add from Centamin’s Underground (UG) Expansion Case
(on which the company should complete a study in H2’22) and the bonanza
structure at Bast.
Our model suggests that the current share price is effectively pricing in the
Centamin’s Sukari Interim Case which, it has to be said, does include a
generous amount of upside (e.g. it assumes a significant amount of
underground Resource Conversion).
However, we feel reasonably confident that the UG Expansion Study will have
a positive outcome that is similar to, or better than, that currently presented
by Centamin. There is also the mouth-watering prospect of bonanza
structures being brought into the mine plan: we see the Bast structure turbo-
charging 2023 production, followed by the 5105 structure a year or two later.
Meanwhile, we were previously projecting relatively modest dividend yields of
c.2.2-2.6%. Whilst we still expect that for 2022 to be c.2.2%, our Upside
Case is indicating attractive yields of 3.2% in 2023 and 3.8% in 2024 –
despite that we expect the price of gold to be trending down towards
US$1,600/oz over that period.
With the froth now off, and potential for multiple exploration-related catalysts
during 2022 (in particular, we will be eagerly awaiting the results of the Sukari
airborne survey), we believe now to be the right time to reverse our call,
upgrading it to BUY.
Mining & Commodities | Gold | 07 January 2022^

Re: Time frame may be four years before Centamin gets at that higher grade ore?
https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1638960206374531900/centamin-expects-output-boost-after-sukari-gold-reserve-increase.aspx
The note from Liberum.

Re the underground operations they wrote:

"However, we feel reasonably confident that the UG Expansion Study will have a positive outcome that is similar to, or better than, that currently presented by Centamin. There is also the mouth-watering prospect of bonanza structures being brought into the mine plan: we see the Bast structure turbocharging 2023 production, followed by the 5105 structure a year or two later."

Re the open pit - from the LOA2 review, Centamin stated that the costs of the increased stripping will be more than offset by the improvement in grade from the open pit. However, and as per slide 16 from the presentation on 8.12.21, the head grade from the O/P will of course fall due to the fact of the stripping - which is over a 4 year period (there is a lot of waste rock being mined!) - however the feed into the processing plant remains constant for the next few years (see below). This is NOT factoring in any production from the bonanza grades identified (and commented on by Liberum), but is a base case and part of the whole process of being consistent in producing 450-500koz per annum. Remember, this accelerated stripping is mainly to provide flexibility for future years (as you know, it was under stripped in previous years), which feeds into the strategy to be consistent in gold production.

The company states the assumption grades remain low for the next 4 years is not correct

Hi Dasut, see the original Cowichan post below , so with that in mind I tried to find out more about his success rate and reliability, although all the people I contacted including geologists didn't really know anything about him, is'nt it time though that Centamin shareholders were given some substantiated evidence on these "Bonanza grades"considering their relevance in supporting the Centamin Sukari recovery, if you recall this find was a fundamental factor in getting Liberum Brokers to be more positive about Centamin

Mr McPhail found a Bonanza Zone at now defunct miner Wiluna Mining!
https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-mcphail-47907446/
This kinda disturbs me - especially considering his former work is under scrutiny for possibly** fudging numbers (see bottom link to The Australian article) and is currently in liquidation of assets.
The timeline: Just after McPhail was hired by Centamin to oversee the underground at Sukari (November 2021) Centamin 'discovers' a bonanza grade zone - exactly what transpired at the now defunct Wiluna Mining during Mr McPhail's tenure:
"Multiple bonanza grades with abundant coarse gold intersected at the Happy Jack zone has confirmed that Wiluna’s namesake project is a high-grade system.
Resource drilling at Happy Jack returned a top hit of 0.76m grading 773 grams per tonne (g/t) gold within a 1.99m zone at 298.8g/t gold."
https://wilunamining.com.au/bonanza-gold-hits-are-a-promising-sign-for-wiluna-resource-growth/

https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/WMC/02396969.pdf
So is it a quirky coincidence?
Probably!

But was this particular geologist hired because of his experience with complex free gold - or was he the impetus in magically finding a bonanza zone a month after he was hired?

Senior UG Geologist SUKARI GOLD MINES
Full-time Nov 2021 - Present · 10 mos

--------------------->>>

His former experience/history:

Wiluna Mining Senior UG Mine Geologist
Nov 2020 - Mar 2021 · 5 mos
UG Project Geologist UG Project Geologist
May 2020 - Nov 2020 · 7 mos Australia

"Interpretation with focus on ore body expression prior to LOM design. Structural analysis of drill data, UG mapping, wireframing, target generation, day to day production improvements within complex free gold..."

So how did Wiluna Mining go from amazing drill hits to defunct in just a short while?

And is this geologist/expert the best person to lead Sukari's bonanza grade zones in light of this questionable history?

** https://thewest.com.au/business/mining/wiluna-mining-administrators-at-fti-consulting-vow-to-probe-capital-raising-just-four-weeks-before-collapse-c-7717515
"Two weeks before it brought in the voluntary administrators, Wiluna swapped out its chair and also installed a new chief executive. It raised $57.4 million at the end of May, of which the administrators were still trying to find $7 million at the first creditors meeting on August 5."
Talk about keeping shareholders in the dark!
Sounds all

Hi Tony,
Yes I agree and as you say the many other staff working just as hard in so many other areas to make peoples lives better also deserve recognition.

Hi Paul,
I hear what you say, but in reality there is'nt a lot to post about Centamin, the news flow to investors is pretty uninspiring to say the least, same old thing , promises of 'good time coming" and as for for the gold price it's just manipulated up and down!
So what's to discuss?
Anyway i hope your still enjoying the garden and the wildlife, they are the important things!

Fair comments Steve!

Hi Mizolgit, certainly not my politics but everyone's politics and equally accessible as is the NHS allegedly, although the the growing number of people who's once treatable medical conditions have worsened to such an extent that they are now terminal would disagree, the government of the day and the NHS has failed them and caused them to suffer premature death and is now still using the pandemic as a get out of jail free card!
https://www.pimco.com.au/en-au/marketintelligence/investing-in-todays-markets/how-might-political-events-influence-markets/
https://arqwealth.com/how-is-the-stock-market-impacted-by-politics/
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20277316.politics-impact-markets/

So move on -

Some say keep the discussion gold, but then have nothing to say, pretty boring and pointless!
The ones that usually moan the most if anything posted in good faith about Centamin but then doesn't pan out are the ones who never post any news themselves and most likely never write to Centamin, or if they do they never share the information.
How many of the "Keep it gold" moaners have written to Centamin asking for some substantiated evidence of the existence of the "Bonanza grades"?
It seems strange that none of the former geologists that were familiar with the geological structure of Sukari for many years never found these grades and yet a wandering geologist Mr Mc Phail should find them in such a short time and one who appears to spend very short stints of work at various other mining companies?
Now why is that?
Before Centamin:
AngloGold - 9 months
Wiluna - 11 months
Porgera JV - 1 year + 5 months
Also the timing of the discovery of these "Bonanza Grades" was fortuitous to say the least?
Lets hope theses grades really are as good as claimed,, but as yet there is no substantiated proof!

hi Mizolgit,
So talk about gold them, but any discussion will get around to the price and that is very much linked to political events and fiscal policies the world over.

Hi Adobe,
You are entitled to your opinion of course, even about me, I bear no malice.
I must assume then you are so content with the dire state of of country and in the NHS.
I am somewhat bemused regarding your opinion on my sources of information and my relationship with Siko, which isn't for public debate.
Stay well and keep blocking if that is what makes you happy!

hi Market, I hope that you are still getting your tots!.
My comments weren't aimed at people like your wife who I have no doubt was committed an cared, but unfortunately from my personal experience and those recently of family and friends not all NHS staff now share her same values.
I agree that there is far to much wastage in the NHS and far too many Trusts who all seem to be more interested in empire building rather than providing actual care.
But the fact are simple that people are waiting far too long for procedures and treatment that should and could be available sooner, people have paid NI contributions and should get their treatment within weeks as in the private sector hospitals most of which are using NHS staff.
I agree there are many hard working people in he NHS. but unfortunately there are also some who have neither the commitment or the compassion required for the profession.
One must be honest and accept there are good and bad in all profession the NHS is no exception
The Tories have been systematically been privatising all NHS and social services by the back door for decades and the pandemic just highlighted that the NHS is no longer fit for the purpose it was created for and simply unable to cope.
I agree an open mind is a good thing, but that said so is not being afraid to speak out for fear of causing offence when something is obviously very wrong which there obviously is with so much in the UK at the present .
I don't see any need for any apology for having a difference of opinion on anything.
So my best wishes to you Market, stay well!

My condolences on the loss of your friends Tony.
The pandemic is being used as an excuse for just about every case of worsening services in every sector of the UK!
Instead of the Tories squabbling over who is going to be next leader and prime minister they ought to just concentrate sorting out the NHS and other essential public services!
The NHS has become an organisation that side steps its responsibilities and relies on substituting proper medical care with TV add campaigns telling people to see their pharmacist for diagnosis and then treat them selves!
So many medical professionals are so busy not seeing NHS patients and moon lighting in the private sector that they can't be asked to actually do what they were supposedly trained for!
The NHS is well and truly buggered to being no longer fit for purpose!

Excellent the Sukari store looks better stocked than many of the shops in the UK since Brexit!

I do not know anything about this geologist, but I find the very short stints of work at various companies a bit strange?
I was wondering if being Irish he had possibly kissed the “Blarney Stone” or possibly he practices “Alchemy !
Joking aside though we need to see some verifiable independent proof of the existence of these Bonanza grades!

Some interesting links re cancer
https://www.who.int/health-topics/cancer
https://fullfact.org/health/cancer/
https://gco.iarc.fr/
https://www.macmillan.org.uk/_images/cancer-statistics-factsheet_tcm9-260514.pdf

Ref: FOI2018/22809

Freedom of Information Act 2000: National Insurance Fund
Thank you for your enquiry of 22 December 2018, which we have considered under the terms of the Freedom of Information Act 2000 (the FOI Act).
You asked for the following information:
“Can you confirm that the National Insurance Fund is presently in surplus and by how much? Can you also please confirm how much has been paid from the fund into the National Insurance Investment Fund in the last 10 years”
The National Insurance Fund (NIF) Accounts present the receipts, payments and balance of the NIF at the end of each financial year. This information for 2017-18 and previous years is published by HM Revenue and Customs and is available online here:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-insurance-fund-accounts
The latest NIF Accounts show that the balance of the NIF increased by £2,286,469,000 in 2017-18. In addition to the previous balance, this resulted in a closing balance of £24,221,220,000, which was paid into the NIF Investment Account and, in practice, used to reduce the national debt.
If you have any queries about this letter, please contact us. Please quote the reference number above in any future communications.
Information Rights Unit

The pandemic has shown after over two decades of back door privatisation just how unfit for purpose the UK NHS has become!
The present government completely conned the general public with the "Save the NHS" campaign of not going to hospital and instead banging their saucepans in the streets on Thursday evenings!
Save the NHS , what utter rubbish, the NHS is there to save the people!
If a person needs and medical treatment o an operation then they should get it within six weeks , not be told it's no longer available on the NHS, or put on a never ending waiting list, the government is taking national insurance contributions under false pretences!
How is it that people can get operations within two weeks going private and that the staff working in the private hospital are in most instances usually from the NHS hospital down the road !
George Osorne as chancellor was using the supposed NI fund surplus to pay of the UK national debt and there was a petition but it got title coverage in the media
See our FOI request-
National Insurance Fund
A request which asks if the National Insurance Fund is currently in surplus and by how much; and how much has been paid into the National Insurance Fund Investment Account during the last 10 years.
Freedom of Information Act 2000: National Insurance Fund

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-insurance-fund

Ref: FOI2018/22809