Member Info for mrtibbles

Hi Razor's,
Certainly Kees Dekker's initial reservations and findings were confirmed (see below) , lets hope we prevented some people being sucked in by the "Ramper " that posted on here!

Tibbs

Kees had a look at Caracal Gold and here some observation:

- It is not Toronto listed, but in London. This allows them to report much less stringently, something noticeable in the latest Financial only available up to 30 June 2022. At that time they had negative net current assets and virtually no cash. I could not see from news releases they raised more cash. That leaves them pretty hamstrung.

- The company’s operations were very cash negative up to June 2022.

- Given a target rate of “expanded” production in Kenya of 25,000 oz per year you should ask your self if they will have the critical mass to carry the overheads of a listed company.

- The Tanzanian assets were previously owned by Resolute. You should ask yourself why Resolute did not turn these to account. The grades are OK’ish, but the dimensions of the individual deposits are very small. Without a proper technical report it is hard to get a handle on the merits of their mineral assets.

- Kenya is not a great jurisdiction and Tanazania has proven to be difficult as well.

This may well show a share price rise (the historical trend is however downwards), but it would probably through successfully hyping its prospects. Personally I find the risk/reward equation not compelling.

You beat me to it Razor's, thank you for posting!

Quite so Mr Bond,
It will also be some indication of how much has really changed in the attitude of some in the Egyptian corridors of power !

Hi Siko,
Firstly Happy New Year to you and your family from all of your forum friends!
Thank you for keeping everyone informed on such a long outstanding, but important issue!
Keep Well
Tibbs

Hi Damo,
No I'm not a mining expert at all, although I am lucky to have made friends and fellow investors on this forum who are former mining professionals and long term holders,, I also have friends and mining professional contacts outside of this board whom I consult with on a pretty regular basis.
It's a case of knowing who to ask really and also more importantly who can be trusted to be truthful and building such relationships takes time!

Caracal Gold here some observation from a very experienced mining analyst

- It is not Toronto listed, but in London. This allows them to report much less stringently, something noticeable in the latest Financial only available up to 30 June 2022. At that time they had negative net current assets and virtually no cash. I could not see from news releases they raised more cash.
That leaves them pretty hamstrung.

- The company’s operations were very cash negative up to June 2022.

- Given a target rate of “expanded” production in Kenya of 25,000 oz per year you should ask your self if they will have the critical mass to carry the overheads of a listed company.

- The Tanzanian assets were previously owned by Resolute. You should ask yourself why Resolute did not turn these to account. The grades are OK’ish, but the dimensions of the individual deposits are very small. Without a proper technical report it is hard to get a handle on the merits of their mineral assets.

- Kenya is not a great jurisdiction and Tanazania has proven to be difficult as well.

This may well show a share price rise (the historical trend is however downwards), but it would probably through successfully hyping its prospects. Personally I find the risk/reward equation not compelling!

I think any investor needs to apply extreme caution on this one!
Tibbs

Hi Dasut,
Thank you for a very interesting explanation and insight into the realm of junior miners based on your own experiences which could well make a very interesting book that could appeal to a niche market!

Hi Spot,
Siko is keeping a close eye on both outstanding issues of Law 32 & the court case and will keep us informed as soon as any news is available.
Either the ratification of Law 32 or the a ruling in favour court in favour of EMRA & Centamin must at the very least be a great confidence booster and so surely have a positive effect on the share price.
If you recall until the court case is resolved some brokers "Westhouse Securities " for instance have discounted the share price by up to 20% in some instances.

.

Is this the company?
https://caracalgold.com/investors/investment-case/

Hi Paul,
I agree with you, unfortunately in the past all too often after media had published an upbeat article there was yet another "Unforeseen grade deterioration or operational mishap" which immediately undermined confidence in the comapny and knocked back the share price.
However from the information available it seems the big difference now is that the Sukari operation is being run properly with achievable and realistic targets for the long term as the priority.
Lets hope this time things really are different!
Keep Well
Tibbs

Quite so Cholly , at the risk of being accused of "Ramping" by some lets hope now the Sukari mining operation is being run properly this time it really is a case of "Onwards and upwards!" and thank you once again for posting!

Best

Tibbs

Hi Razor's,
I am informed that this latest Daily Mail coverage achieved by Buchanan, so credit where it is due!
The last time Centamin was tipped in this very influential column, the share price doubled over the next three months, although such a meteoric rise would be fantastic it is likely asking too much, bur even so the article can only stimulate interest and help the share price upward momentum!
Tibbs

Re de Montessus, the liquidity remains on the TSX rather than London for EDV, so likely the reason he traded on the TZX.
Burkina remains a very volatile and somewhat and a lawless part of West Africa which is very sad for the Burkinabis, although that might not be his reason for selling....he probably has had very few chances to sell in view of all the acquisitions they have made which has barred him from trading.
Although it will be interesting to see how those acquisitions bed down and how production goes, Endeavour have really been on a supermarket sweep and no doubt one or two of the mines are probably not as good as they may have first thought!

At the risk of being accused of "Ramping" by others this positive look forward was offered to me last week by someone with very close ties to the company.

"The message is getting through to the market after a few very tough years, there is light at the end of what feels like quite a long tunnel but, as explained by Martin the plan has always been to get Sukari producing c.500k Oz per annum consistently from 2024 onwards, and importantly at lower costs and now the main bulk of the capex is now behind us , the gold price being strong is a also good bonus!

Tibbs

Hi Cholly,
Thank you for your most informative post!

Hi Dasut,
Thank you for the explanation,
I would have thought the analysts might have questioned the wall inclination angle, but there you go, so take your experienced opinion, just after the near collapse I asked an experienced mining analyst for their opinion, part of their response is below.

"About being able to see a pit wall collapse is imminent, yes it is often apparent before hand when listric faults become apparent at surface close to the pit wall.
I wrote “often”, but it may well have been totally sudden!".
"So It will be hard to prove otherwise if mine staff keep quiet about this"

Seems to confirm both your and Mar Bonds opinions.

Tibbs

Hi Razor's,
Happy New Year to you and thank you for all you haver done in supporting others!
Best
Tibbs

As a shareholder I chose to believe in good faith the company brokers analysts opinions or give them the benefit of doubt hoping that lessons had really been learned and that they surely must now be running the operation as it should have been in preference to the view of an highly experienced independent analyst.

Hi Mr Bond,
Thank you for giving us the benefit of your professional experience regarding he explanation of the pit wall inclination.
This confirms the opinion of Kees Dekker as a possible contributory factor to the potential wall
collapse.
I believe that if the only analyst who has called it right in two critical articles of 2015 & 2018 on Sukari were invited to have free rein to produce a present day report on Sukari if it were positive it would be a great way to promote market and investor confidence!

Hi Paul ,
Yes see below, part of an earlier post to Spoon.
Glad that you are OK and that the jam was a success!

Any extra profit made by high grading and some has now been more than lost and we are paying to put things right!extra profit has now been lost
https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/30602/Sukari-to-produce-600-000-ounces-of-gold-in-2018
Not to mention the many millions of dollars spent for no return (albeit a nice little earner for the drilling contractor ) for no return!
CEO Martin Horgan told Mining Journal that Sukari “couldn't deliver a bloody pizza” over the past few years !