Member Info for mrtibbles

Opinion of Dasut one of this groups very experienced members
I am not sure that there is an African cost structure given the number of countries on the African continent having worked in 6 of the countries there are quite large differences and considerable political risk variations.
Quick difference Burkina more expensive than Ghana and Ivory Coast purely based on logistics of land locked and easy access to ports.
I would love to know why Batie is non core, is it political risk, physical risk is it cost prohibitive suggest a combination of all in addition to a difficult ore structure, not sure if I have seen a detailed justification relating to Batie being non core.
There are numerous mines in West Africa long standing that are profitable and if Doropo and ABC are anything like projects that I visited on numerous occasions in Ghana and have free dig start ups of oxide ores then I see both resources as benefiting Centamin 's bottom line.
Opinion to Centamin Jan 2022

He is spot on re the stripping and the ore : waste ratio – the higher the proportion of ore, the more ounces are produced.
Longer haulage distances are negligible to be frank – the upside currently remains in the existing open-pit shell and the deeper prospects in the underground. As to what happens post the stripping campaign with Capital’s fleet I do not know.
Centamin may want to buy these back off them – Centamin do a lot of their own stripping and haulage afterall, and having a younger fleet will reduce maintenance costs etc.
If there are discoveries within proximity to the Sukari plant (either in the Sukari license or in their new licenses) they will need to have a bigger mining fleet anyway.
Although any decision on this fleet is some way off as there is still another 3-4 years of high stripping to do.

From Kees Dekker mining analyst Jan 2022
In my experience here is an extra cost working in African countries.
The productivity there is lower than elsewhere. In discussions with a director of SRK I told him that I do not subscribe to many unit mining cost estimates used for African countries in the economic assessment in technical reports. He confirmed to me that a SRK study had come up with an average unit rate of US$3.5/t mined for Africa. This includes drilling and blasting. I estimate for free dig material this should be some US$1/t lower. About Batie, it is non-core in my mind because the very low grade makes it unattractive given the risks associated with a project in Africa and a political high-risk country at that. Doropo is better, but still not fantastic. No wonder they downgraded Batie.
Kees
My friend who is in regular contact with Centamin put Kees opinion to them
As Kees pointed out, Centamin is “getting there”, and that is shown by the confidence in guidance for this year being 430-460,000oz, though with higher costs because of inflation and the need for more investment (solar plant, paste plant, underground development, etc etc). Centamin has reduced significantly the volatility of production levels in the last 18 months in particular, whilst investing in Sukari’s ability to produce sustainable and low cost ounces for the next decade or so.

Hi Clued,

Good to hear from you,

A friend of mine has expressed both verbally to IR and in writing to Martin Horgan and the Centamin BOD that it would be a demonstration of confidence in their new company strategy to ask Kees Dekker the mining analyst to accept a position in an advisory capacity to the BOD .
Both the Kees Dekker 2015 & 2018 Seeking Alpha articles raised serious concerns about the way Sukari mining operations were being managed and although denied at the time by Andrew Pardey subsequent events have proven Kees to have been remarkably accurate in his findings and predictions.

Were it possible an appointment of an advisor such as Kees must surely demonstrate great confidence on behalf of the company in its forward strategy and would likely be very well received by the market and existing and potential investors.

Hi Razor's,
I hope so too, Martin seems a decent chap, he certainly doesn't need to prove his professional ability.
What is really annoying, frustrating is that the concerns abut Sukari were flashed up in 2015 and these were denied by Pardey and like it or not Ross Jerrard chief finance officer, Darren Le Masurier company Secretary and other exec and non exec Jersey BOD and external auditors who were all responsible for financial risk management and could, and should have questioned if the custom and practice of the day to day operation of Sukari was likely to be a potential risk to the future viability the company, whatever actions they took, the bad practice continued until the concerns were again flagged up in 2018,
If you recall 2018 was the year 3 weeks after Pardey and the former Egyptian policeman, then mine general manager were flagging up 600,000 ozs that Pardey then issued an RNS that they had hit unexpected low grades in the open pit ( they were known about in 2015) and Oh yes the sole LHDR had self destructed and somebody forgot to order spares!
What did the Ross Jerrard and the rest of the Jerasey BOD do , bugger all really, the high grading carried on until the open pit narrowly avoided disappearing under a pile waste ore!
In the meantime whilst the Sukari "Pyramid scheme had been had been run to a stand still by unnecessary risk risk taking the BOD had allowed the squandering of hundreds of millions of company cash reserves on what has amounted to be hole drilling for no return!
So just what were the analyst's doing whilst this in some respects very clever Sukari sham and in other respects chaotically or ill managed West African portfolio of undelivered promises ?
Well the analyst certainly weren't asking the right questions as far as we share holders are concerned, but then they are rarely do, because they are in the main corporate analysts!
A friend of mine was so frustrated with being ignored by Pardey they contacted a couple of the corporate analysts and asked them why they hadn't raised certain questions, or noticed the past bad mining practice at Sukari, my friend got a call a few days later from Buchanan claiming that an RBC analyst had complained that they were being a nuisance !
So its results we share holders deserve now, certainly not more empty promises, reduced dividend and the taking on of debt for projects that may only be marginally profitable, if at all!
Possibly one the most annoying aspects of this isn't the wasted money, its the wasted time!

In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is joined once again by Craig Hemke, founder of the TF Metals Report, to discuss the Fed’s refusal to accept the US is slipping into a recession.
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The two industry allies contemplate the approaching end of the COMEX’s confidence scheme, as investors wake up to widespread spoofing and join the mass exodus to fairer alternatives.

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10:05 Game of short and long contracts
17:30 Never seen the house this long and the specs this wrongfooted!
21:15 JP Morgan is exiting its silver shorts
25:25 House account of Bank of America had been stopping gold contracts all year long
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Good morning, Razor's,
I apologise for not replying sooner but I was committed to meeting with friends at the local several of whom are also long term Centamin holders, one of whom holds an executive position an international business operating in Egypt and other West African regions, I won't refer to the latter by their real name, but instead as Jim ( I made the mistake in the past of disclosing the real name of a senior member of staff of company in an industry related business, well, I will just say it caused problems for them!).
Jim said he doesn’t encounter many problems running accounts in Egypt/Middle East, but doing business in Western African regions, can be quite different matter.
You will have realised from Cowichan's and others work on behalf of us all that this board is monitored and is also inhabited at times by some who certainly aren't whom they claim to be and those aren't always acting in our best interests.
More years ago, than I care to remember a fellow share holder and Jersey resident had through their quite separate personal business dealings with a now former very senior Centamin executive expressed serious concerns to me that all wasn't quite as it seemed or was being presented at Sukari, well unfortunately the past four years are confirmation of those concerns!
My Jersey friend had become so concerned they sold out in 2018 just after the Kees Dekker report "Get out again whilst the going is good!”) once again flagging up concerns and invested elsewhere
Obviously I made the mistake of thinking surely my friend and Kees didn’t know all the facts, it couldn't be that bad, the analysts that visited the site would have surely picked up on things, the management wouldn't deliberately deceive us, but now we all know things were in fact far worse, not only did Sukari nearly implode, but many millions of company funds were in fact squandered pointlessly on now abandoned projects in West African jurisdictions because of a lack of due diligence or a clear understanding of company project criteria by senior company officers some of whom are still in post!.
Some will say then if you don't believe then sell out and walk away, but then that happens all too often, the directors of far too many mining companies fill their boots having sold pie in the sky promises to their ordinary shareholders whom are treated with disdain and expected to go away quietly.
So let’s see if this is just a hobby for Martin Horgan, (instead of a big train set) or a genuine passion to deliver on his stated aims for Sukari, although I remain very uneasy about what may be just another ill thought through West African money pit (Doropo)
Here is the eye watering cost for digging Sukari out of the crap!
https://www.capdrill.com/media/investors/Announcements/CAPD_Launch-Announcement-RNS_20201202_Final_Website.pdf

Hi Razor's,
I recall that Q&A webinar too, although I remain uneasy that Ross Jerrard was chief financial director when all those millions that were once in the Centamin coffers were in effect flushed down the lavatory on Pardey's drilling projects in West Africa because it was decided that such projects no longer fit the company criteria , now the question remains why didn't Ross Jerrard question the feasibility or the "fit" of the projects sooner?
Also considering Ross Jarrards experience he must have been aware that the Sukari output was being achieved by high grading and using less than appropriate, unfit for purpose mining methods, we are all aware how much this "oversight" "approval" on his part has cost to put right over the past four year!
From the experience of building a very successful mining business and selling it at a very handsome profit Martin Horgan obviously knows how to run a gold mine and really he does'nt need to work any more, but at his own admission he didn't want retire and he saw Centamin as a challenge, no denying if all is as claimed in the presentations he seems to have made great progress in turning things around, although as yet all we really have is predictions of better times to come, we still need to see the proof in guidance delivered at reduced AISC.
As yet I remain very optimistic and hope that this time will be different!
The mining markets media is full of all manner of miners using slick marketing and presentations claiming to have hit marvellous reserves, they just want investors cash to exploit them , more often or not though its so they can carry on awarding themselves handsome packages whilst claiming to deliver exceptional returns sometime in the future!
Unfortunately its usually the ordinary investors who lose out!
So we have been patient long enough and after such a miserable three or four years it's time to start delivering proper guidance at reduced AISC.
Tibbs

Hi Paul,
Not happy about the dividend cut but then its hardly uprising considering past events!
I really can't see the point in borrowing money (line of credit) to possibly blow on other West African projects, how many millions did they flush (write off) down the lavatory doing that in the past?
Disappointing open pit grades,hardly worth doing at the present AISC, just as well they have the underground!
I see the priority as getting Sukari sorted out and and churning out the cash,but this time by fit for purpose mining methods and the best way of doing that is to reduce the AISC

Thank you Bobby,
Looking forward to hearing some more detail on how this is proposed to work.

Not to worried about the POG, we all know the reasons why the POG is being held back, the house will let it rise when its ready and in any case Basel 3 is due for full implementation in 2023.
Martin Horgan has been on schedule with most things so far, although why worry about Doropo , from the information available the grades aren't anything spectacular anyway, so possibly better not to rush things, personally I cant really see much point in spending the money on Doropo , it might be lots of expenditure for little return ,or worse?
After past experience I really cant get excited about West African projects.
Concentrate on Egypt, get the Sukarii ATM working properly, getting linked up to the main power grid is logistically retentively straight forward and is going to have the support of EMRA because AiSC will fall meaning their profit share will rise and the Egyptian government will also be selling Centamin the electrify at off peak times when there would be a surplus on the national grid, so win win!

Centamin 2022 Interim Report presentation.
The live webcast will take place at 9:30 BST on Thursday 4th August 2022.
Really looking forward to the up date!

Hi Spoonigton,
What exactly is "Left wing tommy rot", why not enlighten us?
Well if you have some news or something you would like total about on Centamin, then please post it, I appreciate that you told us about Sami El Ragy's ability to a few stones about and discover gold, unfortunately though his family weren't that proficient in running the Sukari operation properly which is why it has taken nearly four years to clear up the open pit.
It has always been the tradition on this forum that we discuss all manner of things, certainly because like it or not all current affairs and especially international conflicts politics and governmental fiscal policies are very much related to the stock markets and the POG
I'm afraid you misquoted me , what I actually said was that I wouldn't be surprised if Mearsheimer was on Putin's payroll, although as it is he is onto a nice little earner touring the lecture circuit!
You may like to read https://fullfact.org/about/frequently-asked-questions/#funding
That "Smug idiot" you refer to Alexander Stubb has held far higher office and is eminently more qualified and experienced that Mr Mearsheimer whom he traeted wih courtsey
Unfortunately Mearsheimer is just churning out the same old rhetoric which is many respects is now yesterdays heresy and pretty pointless because Putin has invaded Ukraine and nobody made him and his army has committed war crimes, what does Merasheimer have to say about these facts , certainly can't blame NATO
What has Mearshimer to say about these facts?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qva8xMCtfAQ
//www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62412429
The incredibly story of Ivan Skyba, the sole survivor of one of the worst atrocities of the war in Ukraine. In March 2022, Russian troops shot dead eight unarmed men in a mass execution in the town of Bucha, outside Kiev.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct303t
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/bbc-gets-emergency-funding-to-fight-russian-disinformation
The majority links I provide are bona-fide sources of information that have need substantiated.
So Spongton what have you got to tell us all about Centamin, probably about as much as some of the others who want to discuss Centamin in isolation but in reality have nothing to offer themselves but are hoping to pickup some inside news for nowt!
Bye for now Spoonington!

Hi Bankrupty,
Andrew Maguire has only recently highlighted again (in his last broadcast)just the type of inter market trading practice you are referring to , its actually increased dramatically since the G7 imposed the sanctions on Russian gold

Sorry posted wrong link,
This is the poor hard done by banker!
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/city-banker-infuriated-getting-bonus-300000-105922698.html

Spoonington,
Why Mearsheimer is wrong about Russia and the war in Ukraine. Five arguments from Alexander Stubb.
139,961 views 8 Jul 2022 In the 18th episode of the 'Understanding the War', Prof Alexander Stubb responds to the claims of Prof John Mearsheimer about what led to the war in Ukraine.
Prof Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago, who recently gave a lecture at the EUI's Robert Schuman Centre, argues that Russia had no other choice but to attack Ukraine following aggressive behaviour by the United States and Europe, driving Ukraine, Georgia and other countries on the Eastern flank towards NATO and EU membership. In this episode, Alex Stubb presents five arguments against this thesis.
https://youtu.be/vlB-pRqdyBg

The FullFact does not use google and facebook as sources of research .
https://fullfact.org/blog/2019/jan/full-fact-start-checking-facebook-content-third-party-factchecking-initiative-reaches-uk/
Mearsheimer https://thecritic.co.uk/the-realist-bogeyman/

Russian party proposes replacing Putin's title of 'president' with an old Russian word for rulerhttps://www.businessinsider.com/russian-party-calls-for-putin-president-title-change-to-ruler-2022-7?r=US&IR=T

Surely there will be an enormous peace dividend when the Russian army is destroyed and Putin removed.!

The Company’s dividend policy sets a minimum payout level relative to cash flow while considering the financial condition of, and outlook for, the Company. When determining the amount to be paid the Board will take into consideration the underlying profitability of the Company and significant known or expected funding commitments. Specifically, the Board will aim to approve an annual dividend of at least 30% of the Company’s net cash flow after sustaining capital costs and following the payment of Profit Share due to the Government of Egypt.
https://www.centamin.com/investors/shares-dividends/dividend-information/

Don't think there is any offer coming, more likely a more regular flow of upbeat news which will make any would be suitors realise they would have to dig much deeper into their pockets to be taken seriously!

https://www.vaneck.com/uk/en/dividend-etf/
https://www.vaneck.com/uk/en/dividends/

Hi Super!
Haven't heard much from you recently, good to her from you now though!
I am hesitant to say too much because I don't want to jinx things, but things seem increasingly upbeat at last!

Hi Mr Gnome,
How many times as so much suffering been caused by arbitrary drawing of lines on a map, Great Britain was one of the worst culprits!
Unfortunately it is always the ordinary people who just want to live their lives that get hurt in the power struggles of our ruling classes.
Things have been made worse by the rise of nationalism and the policies of closing borders to try and restore Utopias that never were!
Trumps trade wars and even Brexit have caused conflict and division when for years previously society was increasingly dependant upon relatively open borders free flowing global supply chains.
If only those world leaders would put the same amount of effort, resources and money into working together to save our plant and all its inhabitants it would be fantastic!