Member Info for mrmoagi

Smith - show some grace in defeat please !!

What I know:
Tlou and Sekaname responded to the 100MW gas to power tender and both were awarded Preferred Bidder status. That meant they passed the initial screening for technical and financial criteria, and moved on to the PPA negotiations. Those negotiations have been badly delayed. In the meantime, the Govt and Energy Ministry published its Energy Resources Plan roadmap for (I think) 20 (maybe more) years ahead, and it showed a contradictory 10MW and 100MW intention therein. But the important point is - CBM is in there.

Also, we have been told Tlou bid for and initial 2MW allocation with an intention to scale to 10MW quickly. Sekaname say on their website they tendered for 97MW power station, going Big Bang approach. Their website, as best I can tell has not changed in the almost 3 years since it first appeared.

What I think:
PPA negotiations are currently ongoing, given Tlou’s recent tweets. And these might be coming towards some sort of conclusion. God I hope so!!

The PPA was for 30 years and is between the company and BPC. However BPC is dependent on Govt financial support, which means the funding market are NOT going to accept BPC credit risk unless Govt provide some further assurance. I Think this will cause no end of problems with project lenders, and will in due course be the cause of yet more delays before Tlou (and I imagine also Sekaname) can announce they have successfully concluded the PPA negotiations with Ministry of Energy and then secured the $10m or $20m or whatever amount is needed to bring whatever amount of power generation MWs to a bankable project which has achieved financial close.

I Think we are still a long way away from achieving this. This is not me being negative, or being a deramper, or me being someone who is pursuing a personal grudge with Tlou or anyone associated with Tlou. This is me being a realist and me being someone that Thinks (s)he knows how projects such as this get agreed, then approved, then funded, then brought in commercial production, then generate cash flow, then become cash flow positive, then start to report financial profits.

ALL of this takes time. And the Tidd’s, Buzz’s, Miner’s, they are nothing better than opportunists trying to generate a story so they can profit from others who are less well informed.

Like really - WGAF when the spread widens or narrows at these pathetically low share price levels.
Why do you persist in posting so much totally irrelevant nonsense - Tlou share price has done nothing for months on end. It trades between 2p and Low 4p mostly, bar the excitement on Hydrogen RNS.
It is endlessly dull. Going nowhere; doing nothing; yet the pump and dump merchants persist with their Spread is widening; big trades are crossing after market close; big blocks are changing hands; blah de blooming blah….
It’s all rubbish; it always was all rubbish. The question that matters here is simply this:
Why does a company with a story as good as how TG and team articulated it years and years ago not seem able to make anything commercial happen ??
With emphasis on the word ‘commercial’ !!

In my view, this is what we should be discussing on this message board. Not the Smith drivel; not the Morris obvious ramps; not my defensive or back at you posts to others here…..

Why is it that Tlou management team has not been able to close any kind of commercial deal in Botswana after first listing on ASX 10 plus years ago. ….. ??!!
I think that is a fair question !

Smith, genuinely please stop referring to me. It is pathetic ! You have filtered me, no problem my end. Stop talking about me, stop trying to sound aloof or condescending or superior - you clearly know absolutely nothing about Botswana local politics and local conditions. You think these are an irrelevance to what affects Tlou and its progress, or lack thereof. Fine, you are entitled to your opinion. I totally disagree and I have no desire to try persuade you or others otherwise.
So you go post your drivel; I will continue posting mine - and everyone can decide for themselves who is talking or making points and posts that are relevant.
I am not in a contest with you; as far as I am concerned you are diametrically opposite to everything I think or reason. I have no problem with that. You should not either. I am filtered by you; great leave it like that. Stop saying I am or I am not or ……. Stop talking about me…. As will I you (until as usual you don’t).

Actually Olda, a bunch has changed. This is such a big local issue that Govt, which has been reasonably paralysed, is likely to be totally paralysed for the next while. That means PPAs and IPPs and all sorts of things that need Govt sign off plain and simple are not going to get them. Khama is a snake; he is just getting started; and this means nothing but bad for Botswana. And sadly, in the ebb and flow of this one, it looks like he has some ascendancy. Still, it’s Africa and no doubt a few round left to play out on this one. There is a reason nothing happens quickly in this neck of the woods !

SGRF have doubled original cost of their investment, plus have received dividend income in top. And they will no doubt want to receive the special dividend that was much talked about when the recent 3-pronged expansion plan was first mooted.
After that, I reckon SGRF might be more minded to exit KMR, whether by them selling their 30% to a Private Equity Fund or a trade sale (tougher option I reckon). So KMR has been good for SGRF; and since the first rush will pass in next 12-24 months, I would expect the exit then at earliest.
Since SGRF and M&G hold 50% equity, they basically call the shots - despite what anyone else might like to say or think.
MC has probably not much more than a couple years left as well - he has been doing this an awfully long time. But will they let him go is the question.

Everyone had better hope this plays itself out with Khama on the losing side. Politics are front and centre there now - and none of it is good for Tlou, CBM and decisions on any meaningful tenders.

Sparks are flying in Gaborone. Botswana's former president Ian Khama says he will sue his successor, Mokgweetsi Masisi, and is calling on him to resign, accusing him of orchestrating a dirty-tricks campaign to discredit him ahead of the 2019 poll, which dragged in Bridgette Motsepe, sister-in-law to South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa.
“The idea was to get us into prison [and] embarrass us,” Khama said in an interview with The Africa Report on Tuesday. “It became apparent very soon that [the claim] wasn’t true, at least the majority of people did not believe it.”

Is 14.5 million tonnes considered a small, medium or large tonnage by the CMRC players?

Botswana’s legislators have approved the P2.7 billion loan ($250m) from the World Bank after it was first announced in June.
The funds will be used to accelerate key economic reforms and support the implementation of Botswana’s Economic Recovery & Transformation Plan, designed to strengthen Covid-19 pandemic relief whilst bolstering resilience to future shocks.
“This operation will also support reforms to attract private sector investments, contribute to diversification of exports, and increase job opportunities towards a green economy.”
Furthermore the program will nudge Botswana towards green technologies by supporting reforms to increase production of renewable energy by IPPs, promoting and regulating rooftop solar energy generation, and embedding climate change considerations in environmental assessments.
Meanwhile Botswana’s debt has increased since last year. The diamond dependent economy started 2020 with a P30.4 billion debt before ending the year with P38.6 billion in loans - with the increase largely due to domestic borrowing. Jumping from P15 billion to P22 billion.

And one hour later, still up 4.93 percent but still only 10k shares traded. What is wrong with these aussie punters; don’t the realise a bargain when they see one ….

Up 4.93% on ASX - brilliant.
Volume - 10k shares. Maybe not quite so impressive.

Thank you Smith for giving us all an idea of what rattles around inside your head. It is hardly surprising you cannot see the wood for the trees, when you seem more interested in personalities than business matters.

Just remember - 100MW PPA result first, funding second, solar and hydrogen and Orapa and blue sky plans third.

A share buyback would result in both major shareholders crossing 30% and can’t remember the precise M&G percentage. That might be a factor in the mix.

Sure thing cup-cake. Smith has bleated interminably that the PPA is not a terribly relevant piece of the Tlou jigsaw. And that funding can and will be secured without the PPA. And that TG hasn’t committed to funding as King Tony doesn’t want to pay unnecessary interest expense.

My view - all of Smith’s views and opinions above are complete and utter baloney.

TG hasn’t committed to funding because nobody has offered the company funding on any meaningful terms.
Funding will not be secured by Tlou until such times after Tlou’s share of the 100MW tender is successfully negotiated and agreed. That could well be Tlou’s initial 2MW scaling to 10MW, or maybe they can successfully conclude immediately on say the full 10MW. This part is guesswork (ie the number of MW) on my part.
The importance of the PPA from the 100MW tender cannot be overstated. That is what Tlou has worked on since the tender came out in early 2017 - 4 and a half years ago.
Everybody keeps complaining about the lack of progress made by Tlou. Sometimes things as big as a barn door are just staring you in the face, and you don’t or cannot or don’t want to see them.
The PPA is the first key to unlocking Tlou’s gas. This PPA is needed to secure the funding package to deliver the gas, generate the power and evacuate the power to Serowe. Tlou management like to call this ‘connecting to the grid’. Again something else staring straight at the stupid sheep here.

I trust this is clear and concise enough for you.

Official figures released by Statistics Botswana (SB) have revealed that the country is importing less electricity and making gains in self-sufficiency likely due to the stable production at Morupule A and B power plants.

During the first quarter of 2021, Botswana imported 37.5% of total electricity, which reflects a 24.1% decrease of 112,453 MWH from 465,701 MWH recorded during the fourth quarter of 2020, according to the quarterly electricity generation and distribution report.

South Africa’s Eskom was the main source of imported electricity at 65.1% of total electricity imports. The Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) accounted for 22.1%, while the remaining 7.4 percent and 5.4 percent were sourced from Nampower and cross-border electricity markets.

“Cross-border electricity markets is an arrangement whereby towns and villages along the border are supplied with electricity directly from neighbouring countries such as Namibia and Zambia,” stated SB.

The Minister of Mineral Resources, Green Technology and Energy Security Lefoko Moagi recently noted that through the Integrated Resource Plan, which was launched last year, they plan to have a 15% contribution to renewable energy to the electricity mix and 100% electricity availability by 2030.

“From the beginning of the planning period of 2020, Botswana was relying on electricity imports and I believe that the expected increase in local generation from the year 2024 will significantly reduce electricity import. From the year 2027 Botswana will be a net exporter of electricity,” he said

So Morris, does that mean you are sticking with your 12-15 pence prediction ? How about I give you a little wiggle room and we give you until end of September.

At least you understand the importance of volume v price movement and the correlation and timing. Your wingman doesn’t, and since he is your responsibility (yes, you and your mates sucked him and others equally gullible into your little ‘circle’) then you can jolly well teach him the intricacies of price arbitrage on dual (or triple) exchange listings.

Come on Morris - step up and show some leadership to the troops.

Wrong again (as usual) Smith. Hard as you find this to believe (just like hard as you will find it to believe I am going to be right on the PPA), I have never ever posted under multiple profiles.
And that you silly stubborn young or old man is a Fact !!

Bob, I never took you for such an astute member of the flock. Baaaaa.

Smith- the problem with your attempted humour is one person is right and one person is wrong.

That dice was actually rolled quite some time ago - are you ready for the result ?!

Hey Morris - will leave you alone until Monday sometime.
What’s your share prediction mate?? You were quick to impress us with your predictive efforts knowing the Hydrogen initiative was about to be shared. So come on, now we are beyond that and waiting for 100MW, Orapa, Solar 2 x 50MW tenders, Hydrogen partnerships, …. Get in front of the news man. Impress us all with some real insight and intelligence. That would be a first !!

PS Look after Smith. You have inherited him, so do the right thing mate! Vulnerable people and all that ….

Zombie / In your head / awesome song ….!!