Member Info for MrMath

Way undervalued for far too long - looks like people are starting to realise.

Was over £48 last year and over £50 the year before that, so I would be very surprised if we're not looking at something more like mid £50s before the end of this year.

Interestingly, the current price is above 278.06 (290.70 - 12.64, close minus divi), so anyone who sold yesterday is down and will have to pay stamp duty and trading costs to get back in. In fact, anything above about 276.5 means that it wasn't worth selling yesterday.

"Save that for those volatile AIM type stocks and let this one ride!"

Exactly, not worth the certainty of the stamp duty and trading costs, in addition to the possibility that you might not be back in when it recovers - as it always does.

"What do people think about above on SP post divi payment date?"

Usually the drop on ex-dividend date is more or less equal to the dividend, 12.64p in the case, and trading starts from around that figure depending on what other factors are also influencing the price.

If we're back at about 290p on payment date 27th May then I'll be happy with that: got the dividend for free and no trading costs and stamp duty to buy back in.

But if I had to put my money on it (which is what I'm doing, of course), I'd say the SP will be over 300p on payment day and I'll be a very happy man.

"I had a daft idea of selling up just before ex div, and it only dropped by a couple of pence"

It's been my experience that any drop is usually made up pretty quickly, and my policy of holding and taking the dividend has served me well over the years. I don't like being out of a share like this, even if it's only for a few days.

"I don't understand why they aren't revisiting the AZN half dose error in the phase 3 trials"

Neither do I. All I can come up with is that it was already packaged and ready to go. Yes, there was a very poor attempt after the error was discovered to justify the two full doses, but the numbers are pretty suspect and the bmj paper even has a nice cop-out line stating that the confidence intervals were wide.

There has been an awful lot of very very poor mathematics surroundings the vaccine studies and, unfortunately, this is nothing new as far as research medical papers are concerned.

As regards the J&J vaccine, it's another adenovirus vector vaccine and so possibly subject to similar problems as the AZN vaccine.

We just don't know on average (we're all different) for how many doses a given viral vector will continue to do its job. It's completely possible that the viral vector will be destroyed even on the first dose, just depends on how reactive one's immune system is. What we do know is that it's very likely one's immune system, when functioning well, will adapt to the vector and so the vaccine will become less efficient with extra doses. Usually, this is a small number of doses if the subjects are young and healthy. Anyway, it's not a problem changing the vector. It's just research and keeps pharma in business.

Maybe I'll consider selling some at £6. We'll not really, just joking. This is my largest share and a long term hold for me. Can't see anywhere better to put my money in this climate.

It is precisely at times like this, when negative emotion gets the better of fundamentals, that one should buy. Just saying for those who haven't realised it yet.

papucel

I'm well aware of the bmj preprint published on 3 February which 'supports' the longer 12 week dosage interval but the reality is that there was not enough time to get reliable data at that point. It was more political than science. They even give themselves the nice cop-out line: its efficacy increased with a longer gap between doses but the confidence intervals were wide.

What I have always found very curious about the way the AZN vaccine has been administered is that their own studies demonstrated that a half first dose followed by a full dose was much more effective than two full doses. They then proceed to ignore this and administer two full doses - not exactly following the science!

Totally agree. This is a scandalous waste of money. Even with covid completely eliminated the rate of positive cases detected can only fall as low as the false positive rate of the test. Wish they would use people who can really run the numbers instead of the politically motivated second raters that they currently listen too, though I do understand that the true top people would not want their names associated with these shenanigans.

"Scientifically there's no logic for a vaccine to cause blood clots."

It's not in dispute that covid causes blood clots, so it's certainly not inconceivable that a vaccine intended to help the body produce similar antibodies to which covid would induce could also cause blood clots. However, the same could be said of the other vaccines. Anyway, I am quite happy with my investment here.

Yes, it's kept up to date too.

Doesn't sound like you've made enough profit to have to pay tax, but you should always keep a record of your transactions.

All you need to do to calculate your capital gain is to go to: http://www.cgtcalculator.com/calculator.aspx
and enter your transactions in the following format:
B 12/05/2019 BP 7750 5.7389 12.95 222.38
S 01/04/2020 BP 4000 2.4550 12.95 0.00

and press calculate. There are seven columns, which you just copy and paste from the spreadsheet where you keep your transaction data (and if you don't have one, now's a good time to start). The first column indicates whether it's a buy or sell, the second is the date, the third the ticker, the fourth the number of shares, the fifth the price, the sixth the transaction costs and the seventh is any tax (stamp duty).

Definitely heading for 300+ very soon. Glad I bought more a month ago to make this my largest holding.

Not that long ago GSK was my largest holding but now, without selling a single share, it's dropped to 6th place. Given the strength of the business, it's clearly time to add.

"the only way to make money is to invest in firms for the long term that you believe in"

That's the way I invest and the reason why I'm in GSK. Although I do allow myself the odd foray on AIM (not this financial year ) but only with some of the profits from my usual strategy.

This has been a great share: capital 40% up and now a record dividend!