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The Argentine media does not now the country's legal troubles well enough to challenge presidential candidates and presidential candidates don't know these cases well enough to provide a detailed answer that can be challenged with a follow-up. If they did, this would have been a major campaign issue. Why do you think they almost exclusively rely on one person to get their info and opinion? You know, Seb. Few people know this thing very well, and the media is not one of them. Wall Street analysts are not media and candidates don't read them.
The government's (Massa's) own Argy lawyers are politicians who advise leadership on their best interests, not on the interest of the country. The government's US lawyers get paid by the hour and Argentina is their best client...ever! Twenty years trying defend the government's past mistakes without a single victory. They are not advisors.
Don't believe me. I'm OK with it. I'm not here to create any controversy. But the fact that we are 65 days away from a presidential election and a $16 billion legal proceeding is not (publicly) in the candidates' and media's radar, should be enough to convince you.
This issue will soon be in the spotlight and you'll get your wish. We need Judge Preska to publish the ruling.
Gtx1..."Now here's a the biggest reason not to sell our shares right now , its this, it just takes one interviewer to ask Javier milei what does he intend to do about paying adverse foreign / USA court judgements against Argentina ?,"
I have been told that two of three leading presidential candidates, in private, have already started evaluating Argentina's international legal troubles. The media doesn't know these proceedings with enough detail to ask questions and presidential candidates have other priorities. Winning the presidency does not go through here.
Cheers.
Great piece. I hope this thing is over fairly soon. Too expensive and risky for the Republic to continue kicking the can down the road.
Just so you know, I've heard that Seb just got his Green Card and is looking to relocate to South Florida. Trying to land a job there.
LORETTA A. PRESKA, Senior United States District Judge: The Court has received several inquiries from members of the public and the press concerning the upcoming trial in this matter. The Court issues this order to inform members of the
public and the press that the trial, which is scheduled to commence on July 26, 2023 at 1:00 P.M., is open to the public
and that any person who wishes to attend may do so (subject to space limitations) by simply entering Courtroom 12A at 500 Pearl Street, New York, NY 10007. Members of the public may also listen in using the following listen-only conference line: Dial-in: (877) 402-9753, access code: 6545179.
--
Good opportunity to meet those who have followed this case from the very beginning.
My two cents:
Stocks are rallying (way too much IMO) because the market knows that the ruling party, the hard-core leftist party, is almost 100% on its way out with a strong chance of not even making it to the runoff elections. Highly unlikely there will be a winner in October's elections. Argentines call this rally the "Electoral Trade".
Argentines dream that they will someday have the USD as their currency. It's easy to implement for El Salvador, Ecuador or some Caribbean country. Not for a G20 economy such as Argentina's. The US will have something to say about it and you need a Constitutional amendment that Argentina's Congress is highly unlikely to pass. Politicians are not going to give up the peso printing press that easily. It's the only tool they have right now to keep the country running. Argentina is importing printed pesos from Brazil, France and Cyprus. Their own presses are maxed out.
Finally, and please keep this in mind. No matter who the next president will be, Argentina has an industrial amount of challenges ahead that cannot be solved with good intentions. Former president Mauricio Macri, a center-right and market oriented leader, proved exactly that. He came to power and surrounded himself of Wall Street investment bankers, multinational CEOs, renowned academics and failed miserably. He is the reason why Argentina today has the same government they voted out during the 2015 elections.
When you analyze Argentina, don't think as a trader and look to the local market as a thermometer of where are things heading. Common sense and critical thinking left Argentina decades ago and have never returned. Look at the country's problems and you will see that YPF of Banco Galicia stock prices are rallying because they were depressed for a long long time, and the market loves the idea of this current government leaving office in 6 months time. But the problems will remain and to solve them Argentines need more than good intentions.
Hope this helps.
Seb's Tweet:
https://twitter.com/SebastianMaril/status/1670888625632866326
"Argentina and Burford only agree to disagree. "This is the world upside-down". Judge Preska will decide this week on all issues".
Paul Singer was successful in his attempt to enforce Judge Griesa's ruling. He persuaded the judge to order injunctions over all Argentina's interest and amortization payments of NY-Law sovereign bonds. Singer forced Argentina into an unexpected default. Argentina, in 2014, had the capacity and willingness to pay creditors. In my opinion, both Bush and Obama "talked" too much but did not do much to help Argentina.
The similarities of the 2014 fight with international creditors and the YPF case are remarkable. In both cases, Argentina lost in the SDNY, lost the appeal and lost in the Supreme Court. Unwilling to comply with the SDNY ruling, Argentina was forced to default its debt payments. The US government was smart enough to understand that the White House should not interfere with the justice system and respect the separation of powers.
Comity was used in the YPF case early on, but didn't go anywhere.
In some way, I agree with Seb. This case will not go anywhere until the new government takes office in December. All legal proceedings should be stayed once the quantum has been defined.
BUR should not wait until it knows who will occupy La Casa Rosada. Chris Bogart and company should start reaching out to opposition presidential candidates after the August primaries. Remember, it took just four months for Paul Singer to settle with Argentina following an 8-year legal fight. He just needed a new government to understand the ramifications of not complying with a court ruling. Paul Singer made sure of that.
Unfortunately, today, this case is not part of the presidential campaign. I bet that after the primaries, all of the sudden, it will.
Hope this helps.
Seb has talked about this before. This thread is great.
https://twitter.com/SebastianMaril/status/1642874081535049728
You are right Extrader, Burford will get paid, but the how and when remains a mystery. Multiple funds (beneficiaries of judgments) are fighting to grab whatever few assets Argentina has overseas because Argentina is not paying. Let's hope history repeats itself and with a new government, Burford gets paid quickly as Elliott did.
Argentina will pay $22 million plus the "old" presidential plane, which also is a B757. Argentina has already paid $11 in cash, with the remaining $11 million through a loan granted by the CAF (a Latam multilateral agency), payable throughout 10 years.
Seb Maril just said this about your question.
https://twitter.com/SebastianMaril/status/1661715570763366400
Dagoberia...the date is a huge issue. YPF's formula, the one that the judge ordered to use to calculate the award amount, heavily relies on the company's share price. To this date, you have to subtract 40 days, also as ordered by the judge.
40 days before the April 16 date (as Burford wants) and 40 days before the May 7 date (when President Cristina Fernandez signed the Expropriation Law), makes a huge difference in the calculation since YPF share prices (both in BA and in NY) dropped significantly. This would imply billions of USD in favor of BUR.
The trial will decide this date and the interest rate.
Cheers.
This one is even better. Je, je.
https://twitter.com/SebastianMaril/status/1655971739895988235
Here is the deal with the IMF: All the money Argentina currently receives from the IMF, automatically goes back to the Fund as interest payments agreed by both sides. In other words, $1 comes in, $1 goes back.
Now the IMF will advance all the remaining payments for 2023 (some $10.6 bn) to shore up the country's reserves and agree on a new payment schedule with new conditions, of course. The new government, starting December 10, will use that money to pay back the IMF. Unless Argentina suddenly becomes Switzerland, (1) it will not have new money to pay BUR and (2) it will not have access to the international capital markets to issue bonds and pay BUR (as it did in 2016 when it issued $16 bn worth of bonds to pay Paul Singer and other beneficiaries of foreign judgments).
My two cents has always been that BUR and Argentina will agree on a number (perhaps with a substantial discount) payable throughout 10 years or so. Argentina doesn't have the money upfront and, correct me if I am wrong, BUR doesn't need it.
Cheers.