PYX Resources: Achieving volume and diversification milestones. Watch the video here.
Https://twitter.com/SebastianMaril/status/1714769120497958915
She has timed her duties in this case masterfully.
She received all motions for Summary Judgment 16 months ahead of the elections (June 2022). She issued her ruling 7 months before the elections (March 2023) but failed to include an award and scheduled a trial on this issue 3 months before the elections (July 2023). She then took 45 days to rule on the quantum and published the ward 45 days before the elections (September 2023).
Now, 5 days before the elections, we are waiting to rule on the bond requirement.
Not a coincidence.
Https://x.com/sebastianmaril/status/1707292832732438982?s=46&t=9Dxy1DO9cFqZHr5TpFjq1A
Aerolineas Argentinas has 79 planes. 11 are wide body and fly to the US (MIA and JFK). Of those, according to a December 2022 report by Argentina's Transport Agency, 4 are property of Aerolineas. All others are leased and cannot be ceased.
1) It is highly unlikely that the IMF will directly lend Argentina additional funds to pay beneficiaries of foreign judgments. The Fund is committed to fostering sustainable growth and prosperity for all its member countries, but I do not believe that it is the Fund's responsibility to provide financial assistance to compensate for losses arising from lawsuits involving one of its members. However, I do believe that the IMF should assume a significant role in addressing Argentina's litigation cases. This role should encompass providing legal and strategic support, perhaps including the possibility of acting as an intermediary between the sovereign member nation and all beneficiaries of foreign judgments. On its August 2023 Staff Report, the IMF made reference to the country’s outstanding legal proceedings (including the YPF case) explaining that “…[our] shock [analysis] is tailored for Argentina’s circumstances by simulating a one-off debt materialization of 6 percent of GDP, equivalent to the total stock of provincial debt or the combined potential compensation payments from ongoing litigation cases”. That’s about $25 billion in legal exposure, assuming expected FY2023 GDP of $430 billion. The IMF will someway involved in the resolution.
2) Cash Payments in Installments. I am confident that this alternative is highly feasible for the Republic. A likely proposal entails a $10 to $12 billion agreement to be paid over a period of 7 to 10 years through semiannual installments that are adjusted to reflect Argentina's liquidity risk. It's important to note that this agreement will be governed by New York law to ensure enforceability in case Argentina fails to meet its contractual obligations in the future. I firmly believe that Argentina has the capacity to make semiannual payments of $500 to $700 million to the YPF ruling beneficiaries.
3) Finally, Securitization of Argentina’s Cash Payments. If Argentina chooses to negotiate cash payments over a designated timeframe, Burford Capital has the capacity to facilitate the securitization of Argentina's anticipated future cash flows and offer these assets to the market. This option would enable Burford to receive the entire awarded amount in advance and shift the liquidity risk associated with Argentina to interested investors.
1) The primaries showed us that 30% of those elegible to vote, didn’t. This proved to be beneficial for Milei who ended as the most voted candidate with 29% of the vote (27.8 Bullrich, 27.3 Massa). Too tight. For a country who usually votes center-left or left, the fact that a Libertarian won in August hints that Argentina is ready to make a complete U-Turn. Yes, Milei could win but it is too soon to tell whether he will need a runoff or he will win next Oct. 22.
2) The award has had unprecedented coverage in Argentina for a case that, throughout 8 years, has only been in the spotlight whenever a major ruling was out. Only a handful of individuals made sure that the public remained aware of the government’s past mistakes by covering this litigation at every single step. Honestly, this case as well as others, unfortunately won’t switch anybody’s vote. It’s too technical for most of the population.
3) Collecting is the 16 billion dollar question. I am not allowed to comment on that in much depth. But, let me say a couple of things. What BUR did on Friday, was a mistake in my opinion. Burford should have waited until we knew the identity of the new president and then start official talks with him or her. Then, if you don’t see any willingness to work out a deal, then you can enforce. Waiting a few more weeks to enforce a judgment after an 8-year long litigation will not harm anyone. I can tell you that both Bullrich and Milei have these cases in their radars and they are both individuals willing to sit down and produce a healthy exchange of opinions and ideas to resolve this thing.
Here is a better link. Fast Forward to 1:17:47
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUm3AkG5ank
In a few seconds and in simple Spanish:
“We have to pay”.
https://share.icloud.com/photos/0592gl3kcdITN3UVhMsfo4lwA
Https://x.com/sebastianmaril/status/1702476759436857369?s=46&t=9Dxy1DO9cFqZHr5TpFjq1A
Table
https://twitter.com/SebastianMaril/status/1702355289603813851
Full ruling.
https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.nysd.440752/gov.uscourts.nysd.440752.493.0.pdf
I don't think Milei will go for a full privatization of YPF. That will prove to be a big deal with the population and a tough sale in Congress. Although he would love to sell the whole 51%, his initial plan, if he gets elected, is using the 51% as collateral to get much needed USD to start dollarizing Argentina's economy. That will no be a tough sale with Congress, but, assuming that he gets 40 representatives and 7 senators, adding the reps and senators that the center-right coalition will get, together will have a healthy majority in both chambers to approve whatever is in the pipe.
But Milei, just as Trump, doesn't have the type of 'people skills' needed to persuade non-party members.
Hope this helps.
Milei wants to use Argentina's 51% stake in YPF as collateral to get the dollars he needs to start "dolarizing' the economy. It will be a tough sale in Congress.
80 investment bankers, fund managers, analysts will participate tonight in an event in Greenwich, CT where two of Milei's four economic advisors will exchange opinions and ideas of where Argentina will do should Milei become president. Don't expect any major announcements. The team flew last night without an agenda. Just willingness to hear and respond. Nothing on the ongoing litigations unless asked (but don't expect a detailed response).
450 empanadas will be served. A few dozen bottles of argentine wine. Four valet parking. Neighbors have been warned.
Good point. Two more issues. First: The Appellant needs to present "questions" to the court. We need to see what those questions are since Argentina has already lost a previous appeal to this same court in this same case. This is key because if Argentina somehow presents similar arguments, its case will be DOA. And second: the Appellate Court is composed by three judges. Burford and Argentina need two judges to side with their arguments to overturn Preska's ruling.
Cheers.
Thanks for your thorough explanation dgdg1. But allow me to add something: this Summary Judgment was requested by both parties, not just one as it usually happens, and Preska had the opportunity to deny both motions and send the case to trial. The reason why this case went to SS is because every single piece of information was known and a trial would not have revealed anything new. I'm not a lawyer and my opinion could be wrong.
According to Bloomberg Law, 75.6% of the cases reviewed by the Second Court of Appeals are affirmed. It works in Burford's favor on the upcoming appeal by Argentina, but against if it appeals YPF's ruling.
https://data.bloomberglp.com/bna/sites/7/2019/09/Bloomberg_Law_11_2019_ANALYSIS__Predicting-Appellate-Outcomes-in-Second-Circuit.pdf