RE: Nasdaq5 Aug 2022 15:02
https://ir.tizianalifesciences.com/analyst-report
Just having a look through analyst reports on the TLSA website. (to help decide to hold or sell)...this summary below is from June, with a 12 month target of $3. Note the assumptions however (i.e. of future commercialisation). Shame they can't hit any target dates for trials - but if they do and continue progress then Foralumab could be a blockbuster. Nice to see progress with the alzheimers work also..https://ir.tizianalifesciences.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tiziana-life-sciences-announces-presentation-alzheimers
Tiziana Life Sciences Plc (TLSA)
We base our Buy rating and 12-month price target of $3 per share on a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis of revenue and cash flow projection through 2030. Our projections of free cash flow to the firm from sales of oral foralumab for moderate to severe Crohn’s disease and nasal foralumab for non-active SPMS are adjusted and weighted based on historical regulatory approval rates of similar treatments at similar stages of development. Our DCF analysis applies a WACC-calculated 14.5% discount rate and a 2% terminal growth rate, in line with other clinical-stage biotech companies, yielding an implied enterprise value of $78M. For 2030, the final projected year of our model, we forecast $500M in total risk-adjusted revenue, which assumes a 35% probability of clinical and regulatory success for oral foralumab and 25% for nasal foralumab. Of note, nasal foralumab could potentially pursue approval via orphan drug designation, in our opinion, intended for rare diseases or conditions that affect less than 200,000 individuals in the U.S. Through this regulatory pathway, TLSA will be able to have the agency involved in the early stages regarding the trial design and endpoint selection and likely facilitate expedited approval, given the unmet need. We currently do not ascribe any value in our model to TZLS-501 and milciclib, as we await additional clinical data and subsequent guidance on the regulatory path to market.