Member Info for MrH_m

Yes, I remember from my previous stints in here @DT - I had him filtered and stupidly unfiltered him this time, as i thought he may have changed his ways!

Thanks OTP - thought i was fighting the battle with these clowns on my own for a while!!

... the biggest risk here is EME lose the legal battle and walk away with nothing!

The money comes from the same place Conrad’s just taken theirs from - the buyer of the working interest. Nations are paying real cash for percentage slices of Mako. If EME are included, they get paid for their 8.5% the same way as everyone else in the deal.

On the “insolvent” point - that’s not how the CLN works. It isn’t a bank loan that suddenly needs paying in full. It’s linked to the monetisation (and referenced in previous y/e reports as being 'underwritten' by Mako). If the sale doesn’t cover the full amount, my take is that the noteholders take the hit, not EME. They priced that risk in. EME doesn’t suddenly owe millions.

So yes, inclusion matters. But the idea that EME goes bust because the sale might not clear the CLN is nonsense.

The debt isn’t the issue you think it is. The CLN gets paid from the sale, not from EME’s cashflow. So if EME’s share is, say, $8m and the CLN is $12m, EME doesn’t owe the extra $4m; the CLN holders just don’t get made whole. That risk was pricesd into the deal from day one.

And once the sale happens, the overhang is gone. Debt cleared, dispute resolved, clean balance sheet. AIM always re-rates companies when the big uncertainty is removed, even if little cash ends up left over. It doesn’t signal the end!!

People are making the debt sound like it changes the value of our 8.5% - it doesn’t. Nations have literally just priced Mako at about $1m per 1%, so our 8.5% sits in the $8–9m minimum range, and usually the final bit of a JV goes for a premium because the buyer wants clean title. So you’re realistically talking $10–12m+ for EME’s piece, not the silly low numbers being thrown around.

Whether EME gets $8m, $12m or more, the debt just gets paid out of the proceeds. It doesn’t reduce the valuation, it doesn’t scare Nations, and it doesn’t make the deal “not worth it”. It’s an internal clean up, nothing more. If the settlement is anywhere near the Nations multiple, the debt is cleared and shareholders still have meaningful value left. That’s why the debt isn’t the killer people keep pretending it is.

And the legal stuff actually strengthens EME’s hand. The JOA is governed by English law, disputes sit under London arbitration, and the Forced Withdrawal was fired off mid-dispute, which is shaky at best under English contract principles. Nations want clean title, Conrad needs the farm-down to complete, and neither of them want a dragged-out arbitration. That’s exactly why EME will get paid properly to tidy up the last 8.5%.

Hang in there if you can :-)

English Courts wont bow down to pressure from outside forces

Sorry for delay - phone call!

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02587517-6A1117632&v=undefined

Here’s the exact clause from the Conrad Asia Energy Ltd prospectus:

The clause appears in Section 6.6 – Governing Law of the Legal Opinion (Annexure F).

“The choice of English law as the governing law of the JOA and JOA Side Deed is a valid choice of law…”

Just to point out something important - Conrad’s own ASX prospectus says the Duyung JOA (the one covering EME, Conrad/WNEL and Coro) is governed by English law.

So if this does go beyond the current arguing, it isn’t handled in Indonesia. It goes through English arbitration, and anything that needs a court goes to the English High Court.

Hardly the setup for Conrad to just steamroll EME.

Yes - when one party (EME) is content to dig in their heels and frustrate the process, they hold a lot of negotiating power. This is particularly so when the other parties are under contractually agreed timescales in circumstances where the agreement is not capable of legal ratification without EMEs consent. I back EME to get a good outcome here.

People often mix up “want” and “demand.”

They’re not the same.

In economics, a want is just something you’d like.

A demand only exists when you’re willing to buy it and able to pay for it - in other words, you only demand something when you have the money and you’re prepared to spend it.

A simple distinction, but it explains a lot about how markets really work.

No Mikey - that’s it in a nutshell. Just might have to wait a few more weeks is all

They seem fairly confident from this am RNS!

Try looking at the correct fully capitalised figure Jungmana !

$320m

From experience, no party will want arbitration. It will be lengthy, costly, embarrassing for some and will kill the deal. EME legally hold their 8.5% stake and that is the position until (a) settlement; or (b) a business or commercial court tells them otherwise. Do not panic, we are in a stronger position than it seems atm

Based on the latest announcements, the fully capitalised value of the farm-in (for the entire development) is roughly:

• US $320 million for capex and full development of the Mako Gas Field via the Duyung PSC. 

• The partner (Nations Natuna Barat) will fund all future PSC costs including this capex. 

So if we measure it as the project value being US $320 m, that gives a useful benchmark for value-per-% interest in the PSC.

Everyone’s seen the same thing: Nations is tied into the Arsari Group and Hashim is Prabowo’s brother. No one’s pretending that isn’t serious political weight.

But that doesn’t automatically mean they can just steamroll EME. They’ve just signed a big, very public gas deal that has to look clean for lenders, regulators and SKK Migas. The last thing they want is a messy fight over 8.5% splashed across arbitration filings while they’re trying to register title and move into development.

Even with heavy connections they still have to deal with:

• the JOA

• the dispute process

• arbitration if it comes to it

• Conrad being ASX-listed

• project finance people insisting on clean title

If anything, their influence makes a quick settlement more likely, not less, because paying off the final 8.5% is far easier and far cleaner than trying to force it and risking delays or bad press.

This isn’t a “crush EME” situation. It’s a “tidy this up fast and move on” situation. The time to panic is not now!

For anyone waking up trying to work out where this now goes, here’s the simple reality without the panic.

The Conrad/Nations deal hasn’t “killed” EME. All it’s done is confirm the main farm-down terms and expose the fact that Conrad tried to push the 8.5% through in the middle of a live dispute. That isn’t clean title, and no buyer is going to accept it as-is.

The most likely outcome now is a commercial settlement, not some nuclear wipeout. Nations needs the licence clean. Conrad needs the money. Indonesia won’t register a disputed transfer. And EME aren’t just going to walk away from an asset they’ve held for years.

So what does that actually mean?

– either EME get bought out for a proper valuation

– or they keep a smaller carried %

– or they keep the full 8.5% once the dispute is sorted

All three are workable for the other parties.

All three give EME real value.

All three put the SP miles above today’s level.

The only real “bad” outcome is losing the lot, and that’s the least likely because it freezes the whole Nations deal and lands everyone in arbitration hell for months.

So, like it or not, EME still has a seat at the table. The 8.5% is now the last piece of the puzzle, and that’s usually where the premium sits. Let the battle commence!

From down under:

Bardsz

2 Posts.

18/11/25 21:44 Post #: 81700457

Very surprised there has been no comment here on this London Stock Exchange RNS ref EME.L who have a 8.5% share of Mako. Its kicked off big time in UK with a serious fall in EME shares and appears to be holding the deal up.https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/EME/duyung-psc-update/17332248

CRD Price at posting: 68.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held

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UKEME

1 Posts.

19/11/25 10:12 Post #: 81705112

Yes and considering EME are very firmly digging in their heels and protecting their rights, unless Conrad withdraw their notice, the farm out won’t be completing any time soon!

I undertand your point, but I still don’t really buy the “wobble down” bit. Today’s drop by was just pure panic cos nobody knows the actual number + the MMs knew exactly how to milk the panic. Once the farm-down price is out, even if we’re not in the first chunk, people will just value our 8.5% off that straight away.

There might be a tiny dip from those who only read the headline, but the savvy will be straight in once the maths is clear. And if the buyer leaves us til last, that usually means a bigger premium later anyway - they won’t want to run a whole gas project with a random and messy 8.5% floating about.

So for me, once the valuation lands, SP goes up not down.

We shall see when we get the next update 👍🏻