RE: 350m shares as part of equity-farmin seems likely7 Apr 2026 17:50
You’re over engineering the downside here while underplaying the strategic position PRD has built.
Trinidad doesn’t need to be a “bread winner” to matter. It’s already a cash flowing, improving asset base in a rising oil environment, and SC 3 is a genuine catalyst, not a lottery ticket. The point isn’t perfection — it’s a steady contribution while the bigger pieces move.
The 350m headroom keeps getting framed as a threat, when in reality it’s optionality. Any serious partner knows the value of the basin, the scale of the prize, and the fact that PRD has already de risked the geology. That shifts the negotiation dynamic massively. A partner doesn’t get to walk in and dictate terms when the data room shows a basin opening discovery with a national strategic need behind it. And Morocco’s need for domestic gas isn’t theoretical — it’s immediate, structural and politically important. That’s leverage.
Everyone keeps jumping to “they’ll take the whole 350m at a discount” as if that’s the only possible structure. It isn’t. Farm ins, staged equity, carried work programmes, back ended payments, capex recovery mechanisms — there are multiple ways to structure a deal that protect existing shareholders while accelerating development. PRD has been very clear that they’re negotiating from strength, not desperation.
Yes PG is a big shareholder and definitely won’t sit quietly while someone tries to bulldoze the cap table, that’s absolutely plain to see from his interviews – he will be a very shrewd, no nonsense negotiator.
And yes, the drill decides the ultimate value — but that’s the whole point. You want to be positioned before the drill, not after. The revised ITR, the seismic, the data, the geological model — all of it points to a basin with scale. Flowing gas is the final confirmation, not the starting point.
Reducing and hoping to buy back cheaper is a traders strategy not the sign of a LTH, but it’s also a gamble that the market will misprice a deal that could be transformational. If the partner is credible and the structure is sensible, the market reaction could just as easily be the complete opposite.
For me, the risk/reward still sits firmly on the highly positive side. A smaller slice of a much bigger pie is still a bigger slice in absolute terms.