Hi Bamps , please continue to offer your views and explanations on this board. I feel sure that you have the support of the silent majority of PI investors (eg those who recently declared their holdings). ATB MrEMC2
Hi Paddy thanks. I am keeping a keen eye on the chart you posted. Share price seems to be following the path indicated.
https://ibb.co/2Zywwyh
ATB MrEMC2
Re 5% this is my humble speculation.
NCM agreed $65m for 70% of Haverion so at that time 100% equated to $93m and 5% of that is S4.65m. Both parties would have had an idea of how much gold they hoped was in the ground. Some PI speculated then it could be 20m oz.
So what market value could be placed on the gold 'indicated' at the point NCM met the $65m and PFS milestones? At the Town Hall meeting it was suggested that NCM might be thinking around $500m; so 5% equals $25m
Hence from NCM point of view 5% had risen from S4.65m to $25m 'market value' bearing in mind it is resources in the ground without mining yet.
If arbitration brings in more than $25m cash to GGP then the work Shaun and his team have done will have been rewarding to us.
Either way hope it get it done and dusted soon.
Paul Forrest and Carlos Dos Santos Fernandes (Portuguese) both accountants have links through 'The Orwell Group' (live). Both are also with ANGS.
I wonder if we will see Fernandes popping up on the AAOG board?
Meanwhile Paul Forrest is still with Forum Energy (live)- who pumped £500,000 into AAOG
Where does the merry go round spin to next?
Meanwhile we are still in the dark about the future and all our investments in AAOG are still worth zero.
More about ISAs
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/diyinvesting/article-5464067/Can-invest-one-Isa.html
Today I was pooed on the back of my shirt as I had a photo taken of me standing beside the Lassonde Mining Building , University of Toronto, 170 College Street. That's got to be a double good omen for my holding of GGP shares. Surely, now the only way is up! GLA MrEMC visiting daughter in Toronto.
Hi TomE, in your message to me 10 March 12:42 you suggested I buy back the shares I sold for a wee profit. Well I bought 42,900 shares this afternoon in spite of my gloom. I am hoping for a wee profit in the not too distant future. Cheers MrEMC2
What is a low ball offer for GGP and can we be sure that it would not succeed?
"As premiums indicate value above that of the company in markets, this implies additional value the acquiring company needs to extract from a deal. Thus, the higher the premium, the higher the risk that the deal will not create value for the shareholders of the acquiring company. If we look at recent large deals, we can make some interesting observations. The gold industry has seen three deals greater than $1 billion in which no premium was paid for the transaction. This scenario helps companies curb the downsides of M&A. Similarly, we noticed that most large deals (excluding deals led by Chinese companies) were stock deals. Again, this approach helps reduce potential downside from M&A activity, because both companies share the upside and downside of the deal".
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/metals-and-mining/our-insights/gold-industry-m-and-a-riding-the-new-wave-buoyed-by-lessons-from-the-past
I thought that when JPM’s short was in the open that the share price was doomed but I did not want to believe it because of the constant stream of good drilling reports. It seems to me that the drop in share price is accelerating and I can’t see what in the short term is going to stop it going lower than 12p. I just hope it does not drop into single figures because then ‘capitulation’ will result in the fleecing many PIs. I’m off to bury my head in the sand.
If IIs feel that they 'missed the early boat' on GGP how low does the price need to fall before they think it is good value for them to buy big? Lower than 14p as they only dipped the tip of their little finger at that price. So what price - below 10p?
What's the betting that NCM MRE2 comes out only slightly higher than their original 4.2m ? It's enough to go mining.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/250083901_Errors_and_Uncertainty_in_Mineral_Resource_and_Ore_Reserve_Estimation_The_Importance_of_Getting_it_Right
"Dominy et al. (2004) summarize various articles that address the non-or under-performance of a resource. For instance, Burmeister (1988) reviewed 35 Australian gold operations that produced metal from 1984 to 1987 and found that 66% of them had not achieved targeted gold production in the first full year of production, while only 2 out of 35 had achieved their projected recovered grade".
Of course we all know that Havieron is exceptional so they won't be pulling the wool over our eyes.
Ben
The valuation is something like $500m to $600m ; 5% of that is $25m to $30m
They are still negotiating so it could be $30m+ based on the GGP MRE
It is not in Shaun's gift 'to accept or not accept' but he can go to arbitration if the valuation gap between the parties is more than 20%. It must be more than 20% to talk about going to independent valuation in several months' time.
Hi Benrumpson1
Look at it from the other side - your NMC, you have negotiated $65m for 70% - what do you offer for 5% more at a time when drilling results indicate there is 4.2m oz in the ground?
The figures were extrapolated from the PFS by someone else and I was shocked when I heard them.
We need to get past the 5% but it is dragging on and stifling the share price even when we get news of good drilling results. Shaun is doing the best for shareholders and hopefully he can get us a few $m more. ATB MrEMC2
Today news and share price action is dispiriting and it is not immediate comfort trying to be positive that all should come good by 2024. I am particularly disappointed that we need to wait several more months for the 5% to be resolved and out of the way - and is that months until it goes to arbitration and then months until a verdict and then NCM takes 30 days to decide whether to take up the option? And all for what, the difference between $25m or $30m+?
Patience has moved from sitting on hands to crossing fingers and praying that we get a strike at one of our other tenements in 2022.
Sorry not to be more up beat.