Member Info for MrBrian28

Yes Adam, me too. If I did sell a few and the price dropped I would buy more: I've been here too long to sell out too early - done that many times, Rolls Royce being my biggest mistake ...

There have been some really useful comments on this thread, nicely balanced.

I've been thinking about selling 10% or so just to lock in some profit, but I can't help wondering if there are going to be pleasant surprises in the trading update, and the chart is looking very strong, so I'm hanging on.

If there are market concerns over increased debt, this might be countered by contract wins and more cost-cutting?

However, the figures for exiting this legacy contract must be considered, too - could this be one reason the update date hasn't yet been announced as it's close to being finalised?

And Kip, I don't believe anonymous posters on a free bulletin board can affect the share price of a company with a market cap of £409m & 114 million shares in issue!

Good luck everyone, hopefully fewer than 10 days to wait before the update . . .

I asked Chat GPT:

Here are the key points in simple, layman’s terms:

1. Bloomsbury is teaming up with Google Cloud.

They’re forming a long-term partnership to use Google’s advanced technology—including AI tools—to improve how Bloomsbury publishes, sells, and supports learning through its books.

2. They’ll use Google’s most powerful AI systems.

This includes tools like NotebookLM, Vertex AI, and the Gemini models (Google’s top-level AI). A special version called LearnLM is designed specifically to help with learning and education.

3. The goal: make books easier to discover and boost sales.

Bloomsbury believes these AI tools will help readers find the right books more easily, leading to more engagement and more sales.

4. Big focus on education and digital learning.

Bloomsbury Digital Resources—a major part of their academic division—plans to use AI to improve how students and teachers find and use educational materials. This includes personalised learning and smarter search tools.

5. Better data = better decisions.

The new AI infrastructure will help Bloomsbury analyse trends in what people are reading, predict demand for certain books, and manage printing more efficiently so they don’t over- or under-produce stock.

In short:

Bloomsbury is partnering with Google to modernise publishing using powerful AI tools—making it easier to find books, support education, understand reader trends, and manage stock more efficiently.

Someone posted here last month that some sort of Capita staff meeting is normally held after the trading update, and that had been called for the 18th. So possible update on Wednesday 17th? ( can't find the post, sorry)

Not long to wait, anyway

Did Capita give any notice of December 24's trading update or just release the RNS?

@Heatseeker77 I was wondering this too, and if something is announced during the budget speech on Wednesday we might get the RNS including the results day announcement on Thursday

Yes it's hard to time buys in this market, and I'm waiting until after the budget to top up here.

BMY got a mention by Pauls Hill & Scott yesterday which helps give a bit of confidence. From the 37.40 mark:

https://www.youtube.com/live/WmZaWaFv5co?si=Qgyd5AGk7VWCpRD6

Ahh thanks Chelmo, I missed that bit!

Surprised nobody has about posted this already, as it's always worth a read, and Capita is mentioned as one of the fund's top performers:

" Capita Plc rose 68% following results updates which indicated the long-awaited recovery in performance was on track under the new management and was noteworthy by its simplified investment case and clear strategic plan and options for shareholder value creation. We were delighted that CEO Adolfo Hernandez was able to meet with Rockwood's Investment Advisory Group during the period."

And in the outlook section:

"We believe that the stock market continues to materially undervalue our portfolio holdings."

Ignore the noisy, off-topic posters and wait patiently

Thanks! I'll happily be satisfied with £4.30 by the end of the year. . .

That's an interesting short video, thanks for posting. It's a major reason I'm confident contracts will continue to be renewed and won- Capita are augmenting, not entirely replacing humans.

This from a Forbes article:

"The most successful AI implementations won't be those that eliminate humans; they'll be those that amplify human judgment. This means designing AI systems with human expertise embedded in training data curation, output validation, exception handling and continuous learning loops.

Consider the model of "AI with a human in the loop" versus "AI that replaced the human." The former creates systems that handle routine work while escalating complex decisions to experts. The latter creates brittle systems that fail spectacularly when encountering anything outside their training parameters.

Companies should be redeploying experienced workers, not replacing them. Move them from routine execution to oversight, training, quality assurance and strategic guidance of AI systems. Their institutional knowledge becomes more valuable, not less, in an AI-augmented environment."

https://www.forbes.com/councils/forbestechcouncil/2025/11/10/the-human-factor-ai-cant-replace/

@Culley01 there has been one for the last three years, and since this period is important in terms of achieving and announcing free cash flow, I'm sure we'll have one

@Kipper9 I can't pretend to understand any of these declarations and I don't know who ultimately owns the shares Oasis have borrowed, but as far as I know Staveley actually owns his shares as he has voting rights.

@MarcusExile keeping everything crossed for only good news from the update around December 17th 🤞🤞

I asked ChatGPT to explain -

"Oasis Management Company Ltd. is a Hong Kong–based hedge fund founded by Seth Fischer, known for activist and event-driven investing — meaning they often take significant stakes in companies they believe are undervalued or need strategic change. They’ve been active in UK markets before (for example, with Premier Foods and other mid-cap companies).A Total Return Swap is a financial contract between two parties — typically a hedge fund (like Oasis) and a bank.

In this contract:

The bank owns or references the actual shares (e.g., Capita plc shares).

Oasis pays the bank a regular fee (usually linked to interest rates, like LIBOR + margin).

In return, Oasis receives the “total return” from those shares — meaning:

Any capital gains (share price rises), and

Any dividends paid on those shares.

So, Oasis gets the economic benefit of owning Capita shares without legally holding them.

💡 Why use a Total Return Swap?

Leverage & capital efficiency

Oasis can take a large position (11% in this case) without putting up all the cash to buy the shares outright.

It’s effectively a form of synthetic ownership — they benefit if the price goes up.

No disclosure until thresholds

TRS positions are often less visible than direct share purchases until they cross a disclosure threshold (as they did here).

This allows funds to build positions quietly before signalling their strategy.

No voting rights

The bank holds the shares (if it actually buys them to hedge its exposure).

So the bank, not Oasis, technically owns the shares and has the votes.

Oasis therefore reports 0% voting rights attached to shares, and 11% through financial instruments (the TRS).

Flexibility

Oasis can exit or adjust the position easily — it’s a contract, not a direct holding that must be sold on the market."

All positive, again

Jotted down some notes as I listened.

From 28.20 mark.

Nothing we don't know, but good to see more discussion:

https://www.youtube.com/live/x04VfkjkZmw?si=zOXt9YurOC2-MmS3

It's a special situation - many people haven't looked at Capita for a while - Adolfo's credentials to change Capita from BPO to tech-enabled service provider - not there yet but if it does get there re-rating should happen. The vision and management team are there, they just need to demonstrate to the market they are delivering the strategy. A 'show me' story.

Cash generation been disappointing - positive operating cash flow will be the catalyst. Competitive space, technology and automation is key.

@aim start here:

https://bidstats.uk

Thanks for sharing that, Mr K, it seems Capita Experience is in good hands.

I liked

"There are four key drivers (to defining exceptional customer service); trust that I believe with grow as ethical behaviour and sustainability becomes at the heart of brands, personalisation, truly recognising customers as individuals, seamless interaction as connected experiences across all channels becomes the norm and foresight, solving problems before they happen.

For example, imagine your utility company calls you to explain your bill is higher this month and offers a solution. That’s where we’re headed, and we’re helping our clients get there."

@saibaba it's worth reading the full Information Commissioner's Office report:

https://ico.org.uk/media2/pv5nhks4/capita-plc-and-cpsl-monetary-penalty-notice.pdf

There are some very interesting paragraphs in there, and it gives the calculations used in assessing the fine and the mitigating factors that led to the reduction - Capita's response played a part in this. The starting point was

"The statutory maximum to be considered for Capita plc is 4% of its global turnover. Therefore, the maximum penalty in this case is £96,864,000"

£14 million, to be paid by 13th November 2025, seems to me a very good deal

And the answer to my question why Capita is doing this:

Here’s why Capita might agree to take on that kind of risk:

Legacy involvement in the mortgages – Capita has historically been involved in mortgage servicing (through its subsidiaries). Because of that, when portfolios change hands, Capita can still be on the hook for past obligations. Signing a guarantee is a way of formally wrapping up those responsibilities and reassuring all parties that any “leftover” liabilities will be covered.

Commercial relationships – By cooperating, Capita maintains good standing with financial institutions, trustees, and regulators. These relationships can be valuable for future outsourcing or servicing contracts.

Regulatory/contractual requirement – Often, when a servicer is replaced, regulators or trustees require a guarantee to make sure there’s no gap in accountability. Capita may not have had much choice if it was previously linked to the servicing entity.

Reputation management – Providing a guarantee shows Capita is standing behind its prior obligations. Walking away could damage trust and credibility in highly regulated financial markets.

👉 In short: Capita isn’t doing this for profit — it’s more about tying up loose ends, meeting contractual/regulatory obligations, and protecting its reputation. The trade-off is that it adds some risk to Capita’s balance sheet.

Found this, looks like it's concerning the disposal, but I can't pretend to understand it:

https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/warwick-finance-residential-mortgages-to-replace-servicer-with-topaz-93CH-4270744

Thankfully, ChatGPT explains -

What Capita is doing: Capita has agreed to act as a guarantor in a mortgage servicing deal. Basically, it has promised to cover certain obligations if something goes wrong in the handover of servicing a big mortgage portfolio.

The deal itself: A £1.74 billion set of mortgages is being moved from one company (Western Mortgage Services) to another (Topaz Finance). Capita signed a deed of guarantee to reassure Warwick Finance (the owner of the mortgages) and its trustee that any leftover responsibilities from the old servicer will be taken care of.

What this means for Capita:

Capita doesn’t make money directly from this.

By signing the guarantee, Capita is taking on a potential financial risk (a contingent liability). If the new servicer doesn’t handle certain leftover obligations, Capita may have to step in and pay.

It’s not part of Capita’s main business, but it could cost them money in the future if the guarantee is triggered.

Overall implication: Right now, it’s just a promise and doesn’t hit Capita’s cash flow. But it adds a small risk to their balance sheet — another obligation investors and regulators will keep an eye on.

👉 In short: Capita has taken on a "back-up payer" role in this mortgage deal. Nothing changes immediately, but if problems arise, it could cost them