Member Info for MrBrian28

Recording of the webinar now posted:

https://youtu.be/CW-5UcmofS8?si=hsGvTZYOs7btWKab

It's not been uploaded yet - looks like there's only the August 2025 one available at the moment. Check https://www.yellowstoneadvisory.com/privateinvestors

I also liked his comment about focusing on solutions rather than laying blame - a pragmatic & sensible approach

Agreed Adam. Doubling from here takes us to £5.14. If all goes to plan that's reachable. We were at £4.15 last December..

Had another chat , mentioning the price action since the results and a 5-year timeframe

"What the market is probably doing right now.

Think of the market like a restless flock of starlings shifting direction.

Investors bought Capita expecting:

“Margins will keep improving.”

The new guidance says:

“Margins dip before improving.”

That single sentence shift caused the drop. The story didn't collapse, the timeline stretched - and markets hate stretched timelines.

Your thesis for a 5-year investment requires three things to happen:

Cost cutting continues

Higher-value digital / AI services grow

Margins recover meaningfully

If those occur, the valuation could rerate quite dramatically.

But if margins stall around 4–6%, the stock may just drift sideways for years.

That’s the fork in the road.

If I were thinking about your situation I’d focus less on the current volatility and more on future stress tolerance.

Imagine two scenarios:

Scenario A: turnaround works

Stock doubles over 5 years: Excellent outcome.

Scenario B: turnaround drags

Stock oscillates between 200–320p for several years, meanwhile other sectors rise. Opportunity cost becomes the real risk.

What the market is really debating

Investors are arguing about one question:

Is Capita becoming a technology-enabled outsourcing company, or just a shrinking call-centre operator?

The current volatility is basically the market arguing with itself about that."

Pick a side...... I'm with team AH and his fellow directors. And whoever spent £3m on shares this afternoon

Well said @MaxJH, it's ruined a good space and engaging with the nonsense discourages sensible posters

@simpiles, very informative posts, thanks very much.

I'm taking the positive view that if they have doubled the number of tenders submitted, that will lead to more wins.....

If you look at slide 28 from the results presentation, it states that the contract win rate has increased to 64% (from 32%) across the group. Convert some of the unweighted pipeline to new contracts at increased margins and we'll be ok

Had a chat with ChatGPT about it:

"What usually happens after a big post-results drop

When a turnaround company falls 10–20% on results, it usually enters one of three phases.

1. The “overshoot then stabilise” path (very common)

Typical pattern:

* sharp results drop

* another 5–15% drift lower over weeks

* sideways trading while investors reasses

* Investors who bought expecting rapid improvement gradually reset expectations.

This happens frequently because:

* analysts cut forecasts

* funds rebalance positions

* short sellers test the story

* Time horizon: 3–6 months of choppiness.

2. The “quick rebound” path

Sometimes the market realises it overreacted.

Signals that trigger this:

* strong insider buying

* new contract announcements

* reassuring trading updates

Then the stock can recover half the drop quite quickly.

This tends to happen when the underlying business remains strong and guidance fears prove exaggerated.

3. The “slow grind down” path

This is the uncomfortable one.

If investors lose faith in the turnaround timeline, the stock drifts lower for months.

Not because the company collapses, simply because capital moves to faster growth stories.

Turnaround fatigue sets in.

Where Capita currently sits

The market debate around Capita plc right now is basically:

Bull view

*restructuring working

*AI transformation potential

*huge contract pipeline

Bear view

*margins still thin

*call centre exposure

*turnaround taking longer

The recent drop came from timeline disappointment, not a structural break.

That usually places a stock between path 1 and path 2 above."

I'm uncomfortable being 14% down, but still believe management can deliver so I'm hanging on

If ever you wanted a signal, Capita directors have given a huge one in two days. I'm happy to hold

I think I remember Adolfo say this morning that June was the month that the Pensions service would be back to normal - that should help give us a lift.

He also gave an example of the mess they inherited, which was that Capita had to step in before the contract had even started to ensure that pensions were paid in November. The share price punishment and Crapita jokes are unfair - and he said he has made clearing the mess a company mission.

If the other £700 million contract that is on hold due to a legal challenge is awarded, that should also help.

Maybe I'm clutching at straws after a rough day, but I'm hanging on

Agreed @eddier. I visit far less these days as it's been ruined. And it's pointless reporting them - this site needs page visits, and if they see posts with engagement that's their bread & butter

But the threshold was crossed yesterday - so surely they have lost 20%?

I wonder how many have been stopped out today?

If the macro wasn't looking so bleak I'd be a lot less worried.

I'm no chartist but no indicators are looking positive - how low can this go?

Write-up from one of Paul Scott's writers on his substack today, with a few mentions of the boring "Crapita". This is just the last bit:

'Although the order book was flat at £4.2bn, it’s notable that the “unweighted” pipeline was up 41% from H1 to £19.8bn, with the Public Service pipeline more than doubling in that period. That’s a lot of business to go after!

Part of me wonders - Can CPI become the best since sliced bread “AI-enabled business process outsourcer (BPO)“?

Then I wondered, even if it does, how long will it take to get there and how long will it be until someone or something better comes along - And, will they be able to make the all round margin improvements within all business areas for it to truly matter? The Contact Centre division lost money this year and will do so again next year, as confirmed in the online presentation - Will it still be loss making and weighing on overall margins again the year after?

Not expensive and could be a real AI winner - But it’s just so complex I find it difficult to get myself over the line on what I see as a coin-flip on it pulling off an AI win.

In summary - A large, complex group that could be an AI winner, could be!'

I'm of course disappointed and underwater again, but those results don't deserve a 16% hammering. That pipeline needs to start pumping contract wins though ASAP

About to start.

Hoping for a confident performance and a lot of reassurance

https://webcast.openbriefing.com/capita-mar26/

Ahh, sorry, didn't see that @Trisor had already posted the link ..

Thanks for sharing all that, it's very encouraging.

The link - https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/civil-service-pension-recovery-plan-updates/civil-service-pension-recovery-plan-update-2-march-2026

I wish I'd had the nerve to sell a few at £4.10, and regret buying more at £3.96. Hindsight, eh?

I've got a bit of cash ready and will buy more soon - this is approaching oversold so due a bounce back.

Not long to wait - we are overdue some news and I wonder if details are being held back for a monster final results RNS?

Agree @Culley01. If they he/they posted into a void they may go away.

But I can also see the wisdom of challenging if they post incorrect and negative subject-lines