Member Info for Mr0nions

RNS not a disaster

But management need to work harder and or be more realistic on deals they are working on.

The China order ... need to start looking for alternative suppliers ... no excuse.

What compensation from China for delay?

ATYM: Target Price and Fair Value Summary

1. The High-Conviction Targets The "Street" has moved significantly higher in December 2025, led by analysts with the highest success rates in the sector:

RBC Capital (Laura Ann Chan): Maintains a formal 800p target but identifies a 1,000p to 1,500p bull-case valuation if current spot prices hold and Proyecto Touro is permitted.

Berenberg (Richard Hatch): Set a new price target of 930p (maintaining a Buy rating) on December 16, 2025.

Canaccord Genuity: Target of 830p.

Current Consensus Average: 853p.

2. The "Lag" Arbitrage (Why the market is wrong) The primary reason for the valuation gap is the M+3 Quotational Period (QP). Copper is at $12,000/t ($5.44/lb) today, but Atalaya’s reported revenue is currently settled against the much lower prices of three months ago. The market is pricing the stock on "rear-view mirror" earnings, ignoring the record-breaking cash flow being generated right now which will only be visible in the 2026 accounts.

3. Fair Value Conclusion At $12,000/t copper, Atalaya is trading at a Spot EV/EBITDA of 4.5x. This is a profound dislocation for a producer with a net-cash balance sheet and major production growth locked in via San Dionisio.

Fair Value Post Summary

"ATYM is a coiled spring. While the stock trades at 804p, it is currently benefiting from $12,000/t copper—a reality that won't hit the reported accounts until Q1 2026 due to the 3-month QP lag. With 5-star analysts like Richard Hatch (Berenberg) and Laura Chan (RBC) now targeting 930p to 1,000p+, the current level represents a high-conviction arbitrage play on the inevitable earnings catch-up."

Take your 28p

Put this money to work in ATALAYA MINING (ATYM)

You need to understand what's happing now.

Bid will firm up before Dec 26 (I think).

Get ready to welcome your new shareholders : Hedge Funds.

All that will matter from this point is getting the deal done as quick as possible .

Massive anualised spread, roughly 2.5p in 6 to 12 months.

No white knight .

Look at this now as a rate of return trade

2.5p over 6-12 months

I own the stock for rate return

You buy today , roughly 7.5-9% (really depends on your all in costs) yield on 12 months timing . Of course if this deal gets done before 12 months your annualised return is higher.

This bid is still not FIRM, expect news any day.

Downside -30% if Chinese walk, but long term 100% upside if Copper mines get developed .

INVESTMENT MEMO: ATALAYA MINING (ATYM.L)

DATE: 17 December 2025

PRICE: 790p (Market Cap £1.1bn)

VERDICT: ACCUMULATE / TAKEOVER TARGET

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Atalaya is mispriced due to a temporary "reporting lag" masking true cash generation. With spot copper at $5.35/lb, the company is generating over £200m in annualised operating cash flow and trading at just 4.5x EV/EBITDA.

It is a Net Cash Positive producer in a scarce jurisdiction (Europe). This makes it a prime target for a strategic acquisition before Q1 2026 results reveal the full scale of the cash bonanza.

2. THE FUNDAMENTAL CASE

The Cash Machine: YTD EBITDA is €138.3m 1 at a realized price of $4.31/lb. Current spot ($5.35/lb) adds approx. $110m (£85m) pure margin annually.

The Bridge: San Dionisio is permitted and stripping is underway2. This provides high-grade feed to bridge production while waiting for Touro.

Valuation Floor: Sandfire Resources paid $1.87bn for the neighbouring MATSA mine. Atalaya trades at a deep discount to this benchmark despite having zero debt.

3. THE "TOURO GAP"

H1 2026 Catalyst: Touro expects its Environmental Approval (Green Light) in H1 20263.

Construction Reality: Once permitted, a 12-18 month construction phase follows. Bidders are incentivised to buy the "Construction Risk" now to avoid paying the full "Producer Premium" in 2028.

4. THE LBO MATH (THE PLAYBOOK)

Atalaya held €89.7m Net Cash at Q3 end4. This enables a self-funding takeover:

Leverage: A buyer borrows £600m against future cash flows.

The Cash Pile: They use Atalaya's own €90m to pay fees and the first dividend.

Return: A buyer pays a 40% premium and still hits >25% IRR because high copper prices pay off the debt in

It looking like we may have a run on Copper just like silver . M&A activity also kicking off. Copper is a critical resource and the power blocks are looking to secure future reserves.

SOLGOLD , the Chinese paying BIG for this loss making cooper play.

gemini believes atalaya a bid target. anto***asta , private equity, first quantum

the conclusion

the strongest position belongs to the entity that can pay the highest, cleanest premium, reinforcing the potential for a bidding war triggered by an aggressive opening bid from private equity.

1. anto***asta plc (anto.l) 🥇 (most likely): possesses the highest urgency (need for ex-chile assets) and the financial capacity to pay the entire $\mathbf{60\% - 75\%}$ premium in all cash, providing the cleanest and most appealing shareholder exit.

2. private equity consortium 🥈 (aggressive contender): the most likely entity to trigger the bidding war. they will finance a premium bid (targeting $\mathbf{1,200\text{p}}$) based on the highly compelling lbo model, forcing the corporate majors to counter.

3. first quantum minerals (fm.to) 🥉 (synergy play): the strong regional synergy ensures a bid will be placed, but their necessary reliance on stock makes them the weakest contender against a cash offer in a competitive environment.

Just my hunch

I'm holding for £20

Touro

Mine expansion

Mine life increase

New discoveries

Copper new high, but it must have triggered a seller. Once the brokers go out as a block seller you get this movement. Its probably Cobas ... we will see with the RNSs . Anyway, I reckon a block trade will be going through. Maybe needs US participation.

Nice to see new high, nice to see

800p here we come?

likely of copper stays firm

NB we need copper here for new mines to be able to be funded

You would be absolutely mad to approve the UNITE offer.

Our management need to be investigated for still supporting this deal.

I wonder if they are more interested in lining their pockets than safeguarding shareholder value?

This deal has destroyed shareholder value.

CRIMNAL DISGRACE.

Are we still on track?

there should be huge demand for these capacitors

Why ATYM is Trending on X ? ATYM (Atalaya Mining Ltd) isn't dominating X's general trends (like global hashtags), but it's highlighted in a niche AI-driven post as a top pick in Europe's materials sector. Specifically, the account @Darwin_Knows

(an AI financial intel bot) ranked it #2 today with a strong "Favourable" score of +37 and momentum labeled "Trending Higher." This likely stems from positive technicals, copper price tailwinds, and anticipation for its Q3 earnings on Nov 12—sparking some trader chatter in mining circles. No massive viral buzz, but it's gaining traction among sector watchers.How This "Trending" WorksX's overall trending is algorithm-driven: it surfaces topics based on tweet volume, velocity (how fast they're spiking), and relevance to your location/interests. But here, it's more targeted—@Darwin_Knows

uses AI to scan equities daily, crunching data like price momentum, sentiment from news/X, valuations, and volume shifts. Scores (e.g., +37) reflect a composite favorability (higher = better outlook), while tags like "Trending Higher" flag upward price action vs. peers. It's automated intel, not official X trends, but it influences investor threads. (Full disclaimer from the post: Not investment advice.)Top 10 Europe's Materials Stocks (per @Darwin_Knows

AI, Nov 10)Here's the ranked list from their latest scan—focusing on "Favourable" European materials plays:Rank

Ticker

Company Name

Score

Momentum

1

PAF

Pan African Resources PLC

+42

Rangebound

2

ATYM

Atalaya Mining Ltd

+37

Trending Higher

3

CRH

CRH PLC

+35

Trending Lower

4

CEY

Centamin PLC

+31

Rangebound

5

SOLB

Solvay SA

+28

Rangebound

6

MT

ArcelorMittal SA

+27

Trending Higher

7

AI

L'Air Liquide SA

+26

Rangebound

8

UMI

Umicore SA

+25

Rangebound

9

SW

Smurfit WestRock PLC

+24

Oversold

10

GMEXICOB

Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V.

+24

Trending Higher

For deeper dives on any of these (e.g., charts or full AI report), just say the word!

Its started

THE UPGRADES

Think RBC also out with a note (new coverage) at 800p.

When Touro comes online 100p on the news and 300-400p in value.

As things expand and more assets come online , start thinking about £20 exit.

Thanks @DamonHill for the PeelHint interview.

Hearing new broker RBC (Royal Bank Canada) with 800p TP

- I assume their optimism factors Touro opening.

Its not 50p ... its 0.005p. 1/2p. Do you remember those? You could get a chew. A ValiRx share is worth a chew.

ESP shareholders do not want your takeover as value of deal is low given the horrendous performance of your stock.

If you can walk away from the deal your stock will have a bounce (all the hedge funds shorting your stock will have to cover positions).