Member Info for Mr0nions

Sony game changer, massive backlog to fill.

So many market segments for our products.

We just need to see some financial results, it will make for nice reading.

ATYM is making a lot more money now.

CAP-XX (CPX): The Sony XM6 Catalyst and 2026 Turnaround Thesis

CAP-XX (CPX) is currently sitting at a critical inflection point. With the recent launch of the Sony WF-1000XM6, a massive 132% surge in order backlog, and a fundamental operational pivot confirmed in the latest interim results, the risk/reward profile for this micro-cap has shifted dramatically. Here is the consolidated breakdown of the immediate catalysts, macro tailwinds, and the targeted trade strategy.

The Catalyst: Sony XM6

The 65-70% probability of a design win rests on physical footprint (room for a prismatic cell next to the Z55FA battery) and CPX's 132% backlog jump aligning perfectly with the Feb 12 launch. Confirmation simply awaits a professional teardown to crack the internal resin coating.

The Fundamentals

The Feb 2 interim results (A$2.8m backlog, A$2.6m revenue) confirm the operational pivot. The company is moving from R&D to commercial scaling, and the new automated SMT lines are providing the margin improvements necessary to realistically target break-even.

The Macro Tailwinds

* Geopolitics: US tariffs on Chinese components make CPX's Australia/Malaysia operations a highly attractive "China Plus One" safe haven for Western OEMs.

* Regulation: The global crackdown on "forever chemicals" forces Tier-1 manufacturers directly toward CPX’s patented PFAS-free binders.

Target Markets

* Core (Volume): Consumer Electronics (earbuds, wearables) and IoT (smart tags, meters). This is the immediate bread and butter.

* Growth (Margin): Medical devices. Harder to penetrate, but highly lucrative and sticky once FDA-approved.

* Ancillary: Automotive and Data Centers. Auto is strictly a niche play for smart cabin electronics, not EV braking (which relies on heavy cylindrical cells).

Valuation & Trade Strategy

* Tactical Trading Wall (0.38p - 0.40p): The immediate psychological resistance. "Stale bulls" from the 52-week high (0.49p) will sell here to break even. If trading the volatility, this is the exit zone to capture the initial rumor spike, with a view to buying the dip around 0.30p.

* Confirmation Target (0.42p - 0.55p): Achieved upon official RNS or definitive teardown confirmation of the Sony design win. Institutional validation as a Tier-1 supplier clears the 0.4p wall.

* Production Target (0.80p - 1.20p): The H2 2026 target, triggered when the A$2.8m backlog successfully converts to high-margin cash on the balance sheet.

Reference:

Sony WF-1000XM6 Internal Teardown Analysis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPZbHIsEP3o

Strategic Research: Atalaya Mining (ATYM:LSE). PT £18.4 current base line vs £35 top base line.

Date: February 24, 2026

Subject: Valuation Sensitivity vs. Global Incentive Price Baselines

Strategic Overview

Atalaya Mining (ATYM) is currently positioned as a primary beneficiary of a structural disconnect in the copper market. While the current market price hovers around 1,004p, recent industry research indicates that the "Incentive Price"—the minimum price required to justify building new mines—is substantially higher than the current equity valuation implies. Following the £130m capital raise in January, Atalaya is now a fully funded, low-cost producer sitting on permitted growth in a safe jurisdiction.

Valuation Sensitivity vs. Report Baselines

The following valuations are based on a 2026 pro-forma share count of 153.8m, silver held at $50/oz (£37), and a net cash position of £235m.

1. The "Wood Mackenzie" Baseline: £4.99/lb ($11,000/t) * Target Price: 1,840p * Analysis: This represents the absolute minimum floor required to close the 2030 supply gap. At this price, Atalaya’s existing Riotinto operation generates approximately £360m in annual EBITDA. This valuation prices in the "replacement cost" of Atalaya’s 15 Mtpa plant, which would cost significantly more to build today than its current market cap.

2. The "Goldman Sachs" Baseline: £5.90/lb ($13,000/t) * Target Price: 2,160p * Analysis: Goldman Sachs views this as the "Scarcity Floor" for bankable projects. In this scenario, Atalaya captures massive "super-cycle" rent. With an annual EBITDA potential of £480m, the stock would likely be re-rated toward a FTSE 100 multiple as it becomes a top-tier dividend yielder.

3. The "University of Michigan" Baseline: £9.07/lb ($20,000/t) * Target Price: 3,420p * Analysis: This peer-reviewed study argues that copper must nearly double to meet basic global infrastructure needs by 2050. Under this "Incentive Price" regime, Atalaya’s production becomes an extreme cash-generation vehicle, yielding an estimated £850m in annual EBITDA.

Core Catalyst: The Infrastructure Premium

The University of Michigan report specifically highlights that it now costs between $19,000 and $31,000 per annual ton of production to build new capacity. Atalaya’s current valuation implies an entry price of less than $10,000 per annual ton.

By securing the £130m funding in January, Atalaya has bypassed the primary hurdle cited in these reports: the inability of junior and mid-cap miners to fund the massive upfront CAPEX required in the current high-inflation environment. As the Proyecto Touro permit (H1 2026) and San Dionisio integration proceed, the market is expected to bridge the gap toward the 1,840p conservative target.

Don't sell ... just let the transaction settle

I never expected to have got paid so quickly

I came in late when the deal was announced and bought when deal still preliminary, PUSU pending

Basically made 7.6% gross December 15th bought , so 3.5 months = 12/3.5 x 7.5% = 25.7% annualized return

Management have screwed everyone

You must track them ... never allow them to step into office again

Final trade 230k at 997

Huge demand increase.

RaspberryPi actually start making some real money and pay some dividends?

Mac Mini £600-1000 vs RaspberryPi5 @ £114. DO THE MATHS

Expect x2

let the euphoria continue

PICOCLAW PICO-CLAW

BHP posted H1 results yesterday, why were they good? COPPER

Hold tight everyone.

Hearing NASDAQ listing soon.

Intel foundry deal is a big deal.

Strong BUY if you could.

Everyone 10x if you bought at the bottom.

RNS dis not mention the biggest issue : funding and light off in Q2

Hey BritishPec , I did my research and many thanks. Enjoy:

Strategic Report: Phoenix Copper (PXC.L) Liquidity Assessment

The investment case for Phoenix Copper is now in a state of terminal duress following the suspension of its Executive Chairman and CFO on February 9, 2026. With the share price collapsing to 0.95p, the market is pricing in a high probability of insolvency or a dilutive restructuring that will effectively wipe out current equity holders.

Break-Up Value & Assets

The theoretical "Break-Up" value is based on the Empire Mine (8,434 acres in Idaho). The 2024 Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) estimated a pre-tax Net Present Value (NPV) of $252 million, implying an asset-backed value of roughly 24p per share. However, in a distressed liquidation, this paper value serves as a ceiling for creditors, not a floor for shareholders. Secured lenders, led by Riverfort Global Opportunities, would likely seize the physical assets (land and equipment already staged in Idaho). For common shareholders, the recovery value in a fire sale is estimated at near-zero.

Likelihood of Funding & Investors

The probability of securing the proposed $75 million corporate bond has fallen to 15%. The ongoing "conduct investigation" makes the company un-investable for new institutional capital. The most likely source of survival capital is a "predatory" bridge loan from Riverfort or a distress-focused investor like NIU Invest (~45% probability). These investors typically utilize "death spiral" financing, converting debt into equity at massive discounts, which would further crush the share price.

Rating: SELL / DURESS The stock is a "Value Trap." While the land is worth 24p, the 8-week cash runway and management vacuum suggest a total loss of capital is the most probable outcome.

Strategic Report: Phoenix Copper (PXC.L) Liquidity Assessment

The investment case for Phoenix Copper is now in a state of terminal duress following the suspension of its Executive Chairman and CFO on February 9, 2026. With the share price collapsing to 0.95p, the market is pricing in a high probability of insolvency or a dilutive restructuring that will effectively wipe out current equity holders.

Break-Up Value & Assets

The theoretical "Break-Up" value is based on the Empire Mine (8,434 acres in Idaho). The 2024 Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) estimated a pre-tax Net Present Value (NPV) of $252 million, implying an asset-backed value of roughly 24p per share. However, in a distressed liquidation, this paper value serves as a ceiling for creditors, not a floor for shareholders. Secured lenders, led by Riverfort Global Opportunities, would likely seize the physical assets (land and equipment already staged in Idaho). For common shareholders, the recovery value in a fire sale is estimated at near-zero.

Likelihood of Funding & Investors

The probability of securing the proposed $75 million corporate bond has fallen to 15%. The ongoing "conduct investigation" makes the company un-investable for new institutional capital. The most likely source of survival capital is a "predatory" bridge loan from Riverfort or a distress-focused investor like NIU Invest (~45% probability). These investors typically utilize "death spiral" financing, converting debt into equity at massive discounts, which would further crush the share price.

Rating: SELL / DURESS The stock is a "Value Trap." While the land is worth 24p, the 8-week cash runway and management vacuum suggest a total loss of capital is the most probable outcome.

Inside trading on positive news?

Thanks "DYOR"

I mean this is either 10x or 0 , would be nice to know

Marcus Edward Jones owns 2,361,464 shares .... has been wiped out

Why is this stock close to 0 when copper having a great run?

Whats the reason it has been run into the ground?

This was IPOed at 40p, what has gone wrong?

Is the asset toxic?

Marcus Edward Jones Chairman paying himself and his business partner at Lloyd Edward Jones? How much? Did they offer a good service?

Can someone tell my why Marcus Edward Jones suspended?

He was doing a good job?

Sorry for your losses when should be opposite with copper so high

Equity Research Note: Atalaya Mining (ATYM:LSE)

Price Target: 1,820p Current Price: ~1,028p (as of Feb 5, 2026)

Rating: BUY (Conviction List)

Executive Summary

Atalaya Mining has successfully repositioned itself as a high-margin, multi-asset copper producer following the £130 million capital raise in January 2026. This valuation assumes a structural shift in copper pricing, utilizing an LME spot equivalent baseline and incorporating the accelerated development of Proyecto Touro. With a net cash position of approximately £235 million, the company is now fully funded to reach its 100,000-tonne copper equivalent (CuEq) production target.

1. Core Valuation Assumptions

To align with the transition to a long-term "Green Metal" super-cycle, we utilize the following price deck (LME Spot Equivalent):

Input USD Value GBP Equivalent (at 1.35 FX)

Copper (LME Spot) $12,125 / tonne (£5.50/lb) £8,981 / tonne

Silver (Long-Term) $50.00 / oz £37.04 / oz

Discount Rate (WACC) 8.0% Spain (Tier-1 Jurisdiction)

2. Asset-by-Asset NAV Breakdown (All in GBP)

A. Proyecto Riotinto & San Dionisio (The Core)

Riotinto is now a high-grade operational hub. The inclusion of San Dionisio ore has structurally increased plant head-grades.

* Annual Production: 55,000 tonnes Cu.

* Silver By-product Credit: Using a $50 silver floor, the credit contributes £735 per tonne of copper produced.

* Net AISC: £4,650 per tonne (after silver credits).

* Asset NPV: £1,842 Million.

B. Proyecto Touro (The Growth Driver)

We model a mid-2027 production commencement. Touro is a lower-cost, high-margin brownfield site that significantly diversifies Atalaya's production base.

* Annual Production: 30,000 tonnes Cu (Full run-rate).

* Start Date: Q3 2027.

* CAPEX Requirement: £148 Million (Fully funded).

* Asset NPV: £784 Million.

C. Growth Pipeline & Technology (The Optionality)

* Masa Valverde & San Antonio: These high-grade polymetallic deposits are currently undergoing access ramp construction.



* E-LIX Phase II: The leaching technology allows for the production of cathode on-site, capturing roughly £350/tonne of margin currently lost to smelters.

* Assigned Value: £175 Million.

3. Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) Summary

Component GBP Value (Millions) Value per Share (Pence)

Riotinto & San Dionisio £1,842 1,198p

Proyecto Touro £784 510p

Growth & E-LIX Pipeline £175 114p

Net Cash (Post-Jan 2026 Raise) £235 153p

TOTAL UNRISKED NAV £3,036 1,975p

Discount to NAV (8%) - (155p)

TARGET PRICE - 1,820p

4. Strategic Conclusion: The Path to 1,820p

The current market valuation of Atalaya (~1,028p) implies that the market is only pricing in the existing Riotinto operations and ignoring the Touro and San Dionisio expansion value.

* The Funding Catalyst: The January 2026 fundraise was significantly oversubscribed, indicating strong institutional appetite for a de-risked copper play.



* The Smelter Benefit: By selling copper at LME Spot, Atalaya captures the full benefit of cu

I thought our asset has some confirmational news?

Silver still very high despite volatility

Why trading like dog ****?