Member Info for mover123

We all know there is value here. We also know THG loaded up the 2024 AR with all the bad news to show some momentum towards the medium term objectives. There will bound to be plenty of interested parties looking at Beauty and Nutrition - the key question is who / what moves first and when. If you're a buyer then the price from here will only go higher - so better to move soon before the re-rate happens.....

With respect to Selkirk - how likely is it that they come out with a best an final offer on the first shot? Surely it would be logical to keep some powder dry for a bigger bid that gets some of the shareholders sitting up?

These guys set up a listed company, with no small effort involved and a number of highly credible backers who will not want to waste time. I would be surprised if they do not come back for a second bite and something more compelling.

Good post Pearls and I think there is a lot of what you say that is true. However I think the truth is more prosaic. The IPO was touted at a time as homegrown "tech" listing but the market soon realised Ingenuity was simply a cash hungry white elephant. That has been carved out (as asked for by investors) and what has been left has been polluted with macro challenges (whey, inflation, etc) and also some bad commercial decision making, rebrand etc.

As a result we are a low-growth, low margin business and the latest AR has been kitchen-sinked to the eyeballs making it appear even more unedifying.

I personally still think MM wants to trade his way to a higher valuation and the refi was the first step in that journey. Whey prices will also help.

As said by me and a few others - high single-digit topline growth, delivering EBIDTA and FCF to guidance over a few successive quarters will get us a re-rate. Then it does not take much for some more serious punters to start taking an interest. Its always darkest before dawn....

Is it at all possible that the likes of Nestle or Mondelez would be sniffing around nutrition if they know its in-play?

Any link to the Revb increase? Could it be a distressed acquisition ?

Strap in - it could be an interesting ride from these levels

Well said O'prime.

Starting to look like a hockey stick effect - good forward momentum. would be great to breach 30p in the next 2 trading days

But I guess Oke the fundamental point here is that it was a cash hungry white elephant round the neck of remainco and many were urging for it to be spun off so he has done what a lot asked for. I doubt the refi would have happened with Ingen still in-place.

Second - it might be a failing business but is it failing with regards to remainco - that is what I am interested in. And if it provides a service that clearly elevates the offer compared to peers then it is money worth paying. And its a small point but the money does not go straight into MMs wallet - we are paying for a service.

I do agree its yet another governance millstone that they need to deal with but not sure its as stark as you portray

The FT article did nothing other than highlight that the number and value of exceptionals was high, underlining that the strategic and commercial decisions made by the company was poor. But they did not highlight any wrongdoing, much less anything that was criminal. And as most people know in a turnaround situation it is quite normal to kitchen-sink the restructuring year to then allow the next year to show a true recovery.

Second - 30p was pre-trading statement but I do not think anyone invested here would argue that the current market cap of £380m is anything other than a distressed valuation and nowhere near SOTP. What has become more clear in the last few weeks is that THG should be better able to weather any tariff issues due to their manufacturing capabilities in the US.

Getting away from the personality vitriol what really gets the valuation up is solid trading performance, improving profitability and good balance sheet management. The well timed and well engineered refi is a significant step in that direction - its just a matter of time before the market catches up

Not quite - we're only 0.3p off the high achieved 2 hours ago and above 27p. Again if we end up over 27p and move towards the 30's next week (where we were pre-tariffs) then that is positive.

The sp is clearly not sticking round at these levels for too long - and why would it? we were above 30p pre liberation day so seems at least feasible to move back into the 30's in the next week

If we can stay above 26 today and similar 2% gains over the next couple of weeks I would take it. Surely the "market" has to be attuned to the forward-looking data now with all the noise flushed through 2024. Next stop Q2 update....

In a quiet moment I did some analysis last week and there was a pattern (but trying to be obscured) of 4/5 buy orders (which might in aggregate come to 30k volume), promptly followed by a similar number of trades but with 15-20% more volume on the sell side. I thought I was being a bit simplistic at first but the pattern was discernible and consistent over a number of days. Presumably a means to walk the price down steadily - I invite others to do the same analysis.

Call it maniplation or call it trading but I guess that "strategy" depends on psychology - in other words its intended to spook weak holders. All it takes is to block out the noise and trust that value is recognised either through fundamentals, ie trading performance and balance sheet management or a take-out where the buyer is bound to make a significant amount of money. Time will tell - but don't sell at these levels!

Exactly that. But price now moving on wafer - thin volumes. Seems like something is indeed happening

Tons of algo sell orders going through in the last hour - seems like a desperate attempt to supress the price..??

Question is how quick does this fly when there is news (or a leak)

Tempting to think so Pearls but we're just 3% off ATL. it is genuinely hard to understand why the price might languish at these levels for long but then few of us would have guessed we could be at 25p to start with.....

There was an UT at end of day 1.56m registered as buy

Slightly different topic but what does everyone think of the volumes / trading yesterday. There seemed to be a steady trickle of trades 50-80k volume through the day and then a 1.5m purchase at the end. MA back accumulating again?

I for one think it makes no logical sense for him to stop and I do not buy the stich up with MM either. he is underwater so just from a trading perspective it makes sense for him to lower his average