Member Info for mover123

Stan - the placing price was set when the sp was higher than at the refi - see below from the RNS on 11 October. The refi was done when the sp was lower.

The Placing Price of 49 pence represents a discount of approximately 5.2 per cent. to the closing price on 10 October 2024, the last trading day prior to the announcement of the Fundraise.

Sp on 24 March was 34p

I guess the placing price was determined by the price prevailing at the time of the announcement? And can we assume that it was a condition that MM put more cash in to get the refi? Having got the refi done when they did before all the tariff craziness I think they at least timed it quite well from that perspective

OSG - I also find that baffling and whilst we would not expect the Board / IR to provide a running commentary on the share price the silence is deafening given where we are. Am I clutching at straws or does this indicate that there is something afoot and they are restricted on what can be said

The LSE website has our mcap at 333.21m as of now -we need another 30-40m to get in I think

Agree Oke it could get interesting. So your thesis is that MM replaced his golden share with enough influence to make that moot. Could be a fair point. On the other hand nobody is indispensable - could MA be kingmaker here? Hard to think that there are not ways to dislodge him other than an AGM vote. We simply need the IIS and MA to ramp up the pressure. The value to be had here is too attractive not to have that fight surely?

Or funds bailing out due to imminent FTSE 250 expulsion?

The price does not reflect what the SOTP is worth and I suppose it is only a matter of time before someone pounces.

Indeed. Further to that and as mentioned by others - if I read the whey futures prices / direction of travel that is only going to be supportive of margin and FCF from here on.

I'm not an expert but dry whey prices are down 26% ytd.

Look at the three month curve with low point 7 April- theres a clue. Unless you're day trading its moving in the right direction

Agree. I used to think this share reflected the traditional "conglomerate" discount. Now I think it simply reflects a "governance" discount with seemingly no accountability for poor financial performance and a significant conflict of interest with one of the Groups main suppliers

Agree - its firming up

Risk is you miss a break-out.

Interesting spike

I take some solace from the fact that our resident a'hole seems to have disappeared (the one who had a very limited lexicon : "horror show", "dog" etc).

You're a brave man.

Indeed. For someone with £400m they could easily double the money by selling off both divisions and losing the central / Group costs. Its what is know as a no-brainer :)

Good analysis Oke. So in essence the sp is a play on the whey price? I think Pearls mentioned this a few weeks ago but was put down as a result. But I buy this much more that I buy the convoluted conspiracy theories about MM, MA blah blah. The governance issues clearly stink and MM needs to chose which horse to back and fast but until the company generates more profit and more cash we are stuck at these levels irrespective of the relationship with Ingen.

Could the company be materially more profit using another warehouse provider ? Possibly. But again - thats not a service that would come free with another provider (and possibly result in poorer service delivery)

Agree 100NO. To think that some sophisticated business men including Sir Terry Leahy would put their name to such a fake enterprise as Selkirk is far fetched in the extreme. And going to the effort of setting up a listed company?

If anything I would be surprised if they did not come back for a second swing - I guess it would be naive to think they would make best and final offer on the first pass...

With the opacity and corporate governance issues of THG which is publicly listed, getting shares in an even more opaque private set up with reduced option to trade was a non-starter - glad I am not part of that.

I also do not subscribe to the view that the relationship is so symbiotic. I can only guess this will be a key point for any acquirer for remainco and I do agree with others that the remainco contract is clearly Ingenuity's raison d'etre. Clearly it was unable to diversify with other whale contracts and I think that makes it uniquely vulnerable

The buys and sells data on LSE is not particularly accurate. I have done various trades which I can identify by the timestamp and quantity which have not been correctly labelled. seems to me as if there as some chatter about bids last week which has fizzled out. Roll on the Q2 update